Wednesday, December 14, 2016

2016 Playoffs: Second Round Matchups

The top seeds have joined the Larkspur Bowl fray after a week off. Since the Larkspur Bowl Playoff field went to six teams in 2010, bye week teams are 6-6 in the semifinals, just even money to make it to the finals; While Phoenix and Manitoba are relative underdogs here, they're not at a disadvantage historically; furthermore, neither game is projected to be a blowout.

Playoff reseeding was not in effect this year. Beginning in 2017, Larkspur Bowl playoffs will feature reseeding, to better reward the League's top team over the course of the regular season.


The Uprising inched their way past DVH and into a matchup with the undisputed top dog of 2016: The 10-3 Pride. After years of mediocrity, Pawnee has built themselves into a force to be reckoned with; Coming off a disappointing LBVII, the team stayed hungry and fought their way to the top record and point total. Could they have peaked too early? Their bye week came at a good time, as they couldn't crack triple digits during the week off. Injuries linger (figurehead Melvin Gordon is questionable to play) but picking against Pawnee has been a fool's errand lately. Phoenix did hand them one of their three losses on the season, 214-196 back in week two.


QUARTERBACK:
An underwhelming matchup between PHX veteran Carson Palmer and either Eli Manning or Phil Rivers for the Pride; Palmer and Eli both have plum matchups, and if one of them can have a big game, it might determine who goes on to LBVIII.
ADVANTAGE: PAWNEE

RECEIVERS:
Pawnee's big four features an elite Mike Evans, two underperforming stars in DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall, and a wildcard in Doug Baldwin: His volume gives him a steady floor, while his playmaking ability tempts with huge upside. Phoenix has two underperforming stars, Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffery (making his orange debut), and two players in the same class as Baldwin: Jarvis Landry and Stefon Diggs. So at the end of the day... Mike Evans.
ADVANTAGE PAWNEE

RUNNING BACKS:
Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi have both experienced breakthroughs this season, however Ajayi has been solid but less than stellar for five weeks in a row, and with Melvin Gordon hobbled, the Pride have no clear contingency in place. Carlos Hyde has ranged from good to great in the past month; Fat Rob is a fairly steady contributor, with Kenneth Dixon looking primed for a big game if his number is called.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX 

TIGHT END & FLEX:
As both teams have four healthy must starts, the flex has already been covered- Pawnee may toy with starting Tyler Boyd, but ultimately he's no sure upgrade over any of their WRs. At TE both teams have a clear starter and a solid backup; Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham are both among the top options in the league, while Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are both decent starts.
ADVANTAGE: PAWNEE

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Joey Bosa and DeForest Buckner are the top rookie defensive linemen in the league, and both have shown adept playmaking ability in the trenches. Pawnee's best two LBs (Luke Kuechly and Kiko Alonso) are just as dominant as Phoenix's four (Kwon Alexander, Telvin Smith, Vontaze Burfict, Ryan Shazier) but both Pride backers are questionable and neither played last week. Justin Houston could be a game changer, but could also be a non-factor.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Phoenix has had an unsettled secondary in the backend of the season- really hard to be sure who is going to end up playing. Two healthy safeties (Kurt Coleman and Tavon Wilson) are good options; Two injured safeties (Tyrann Mathieu and Karl Joseph) are potentially elite. Pawnee's Eric Berry has had five huge games, six quiet games, and two average games this year. What he does this week will be essential. Everyone else is a dice roll.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

KICKER:
Kai Fortbath replaces Stephen Gostkowski for Phoenix. Pawnee's special teamer is TBA
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

xxx
The Moose Crew were 8-2 with the second bye well within reach, but dropped all three of their remaining games and forego a week off. Well, the last month could have never happened, and we might still have arrived here: Manitoba in the semifinal against the highest scoring of the five 8-5 teams, Hill Valley. The McFlys spent half a decade as a contender but never brought it home- after two years out of the limelight, they're just a game away from the end goal. Manitoba won a low scoring affair against the McFlys three months ago, 167-160. Both teams should expect to score about fifty more points this time around.


QUARTERBACK:
Aaron Rodgers is the best. But Cam Newton was the best last year, and is always capable of putting the team on his shoulders and being the best again, on any given Sunday.
ADVANTAGE MANITOBA

RECEIVERS:
Hill Valley has an enviable unit, led by Antonio Brown; Amari Cooper, Golden Tate, and Michael Thomas have all had huge weeks as well- and if Thomas cannot go, the McFlys will hope Corey Coleman's talent and targets translate to imminent production. Manitoba'stag team of Odell Beckham and Jordy Nelson are reliable point getters, and Steve Smith and Dontrelle Inman also provide high floor. Both units will put up fireworks, but gotta go with the more dependable quartet.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

RUNNING BACKS:
LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Hill both play in all scenarios, with assured volume, big play potential, and minimal TD vulture threats. LaGarrette Blount has got steady touches with plenty of goalline action, while a healthy Thomas Rawls is rewarding the Moose Crew for sticking with him. If you notice a trend, both teams are very strong on offense.
ADVANTAGE: HILL VALLEY

TIGHT END & FLEX:
Kyle Rudolph has seen eight or more targets in four of his last five games, and is always a touchdown threat. However, he's no match for Travis Kelce, who has been the best tight end in the league ove rthe past four weeks, and shows no signs of stopping.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Olivier Vernon gets the edge over Leonard Williams, coming off his first single digit week since mid October; Williams has one double digit score over the same time period. Alec Ogletree, Zach Orr, and Jamie Collins are as dynamic and athletic a trio of linebackers as there are in this league; Sean Lee is on the same level, but Keenan Robinson, Craig Robertson, and Mason Foster are all just average talents.
ADVANTAGE: HILL VALLEY

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Tony Jefferson and Barry Church are maybe half a notch above Hasean Clinton-Dix and Johnathan Cyprien, but Janoris Jenkins is the rare bankable CB, and Josh Norman is likely to be out for blood in this one. Hill Valley's CB grinder is a coin flip.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

KICKER:
Mason Crosby is the winner by default, as the McFlys have yet to announce their kicker.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

xxx
The annual 'Disappointment Bowl' for playoff teams one and done, the Islanders and Van Halens will square off for respect and the ninth slot in next year's draft. Thirteen promising weeks undone in a single blow, each team features a running back they'll find hard pressed to bring back in 2017: David Johnson and Zeke Elliot both figure to get plucked in the first half of the first round. The Islanders smacked the Van Halens 184-154 in week four- it was the midst of a four game stretch where Deputy lost three games before rallying to win five of seven.


QUARTERBACK:
Drew Brees is coming off a disastrous start, but does reportedly have ten working fingers. David Carr does not, Tyrod Taylor may be losing his job, and Andy Dalton has red hair.
ADVANTAGE: ISLANDERS

RECEIVERS:
Both teams have similar groups of receivers- underperfoming big names (ISL Edelman, Sanders; DVH Thomas, Bejnamin) overperfoming role players (ISL Tyrell Williams, Brandon LaFell; DVH Kenny Britt, Cole Beasley) and inconsistent rookie contributors (ISL Sterling Shepard, CVH Tajae Sharpe) rotating through their lineups. The trump card is AJ Green- inexplicably cut by LTP, he's questionable to make a Deputy debut. This would be more notable if stat corrections upjump DVH to the main bracket tomorrow.
ADVANTAGE: ISLANDERS

RUNNING BACKS:
David Johnson and Doug Martin vs Ezekiel Elliot and... Justin Forsett? Matt Forte's injury leaves the veteran as the only other option in this one, which certainly moved the needle.
ADVANTAGE: DEPUTY

TIGHT END & FLEX:
Zach Ertz is a better option than Jermaine Gresham.
ADVANTAGE: DEPUTY

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Khalil Mack and a trio of mehbackers against Aaron Donald, a disappointing CJ Mosley, and two super subs that have been really decent. MACK THE KNIFE THOUGH.
ADVANTAGE: ISLANDERS

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Eric Weddle is a stud, but the entire Deputy Secondary has been very dependable down the stretch.
ADVANTAGE: DEPUTY

KICKER:
Prater has been good for double digits in four of his last five; Vinatieri just once in his past six.
ADVANTAGE: ISLANDERS

xxx

In the consolation bracket, we know who will make the first six picks, and we're starting to get an idea of how they will be arranged. An early forecast into 2017's top six picks would include RBs David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliot, and WRs Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham- so those are the sort of names these teams are competing for.


Two good friends, eight years out of the money. Saskatoon started well before going of the rails in October, while Savannah's poor start gave them too much ground to cover down the stretch. Savannah's semifinal loss in 2014 represents the high water mark for both squads, despite being original members of the Larkspur charter. The winner here will be playing for one of the top two draft picks in week sixteen- the loser, the third or fourth pick. That's the decision between making your choice or having your choice made for you. Saskatoon won a competitive game against Savannah to start the season, a month before Tom Brady had taken the helm for the Petes.


QUARTERBACK:
In a matchup of the two highest rated QBs in 2016, we'll have to look at matchups: Brady has a tough one, Matty Ice is on easy street.
ADVANTAGE: SASKATOON

RECEIVERS:
Savannah's top three of Allen Robinson, Mike Wallace, and Jeremy Kerley hardly strikes fear in the hearts of enemies, but at least they're all healthy; Julio Jones, Sammy Watkins, and Donte Moncrief are all questionable, undermining their superior talent. If all three go, it's Sasquatch time, but with the risk factored in...
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH

RUNNING BACKS:
Jordan Howard is going to be drafted in the first few rounds next year; Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart remain second tier dependable veteran backs. Saskatoon has Terrance West and Ryan Mathews, who are the fourth and fifth best running backs mentioned in this blurb.
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH

TIGHT END & FLEX:
Jordan Reed's hobgoblin is health. When 100% he's a monster of the midway, but his constant injuries keep him off the field often- last week he played to detrimental effect, as he's clearly not healthy. Dennis Pitta has suffered a ton of injuries himself, but is fully healthy now... still, he's a low upside option, his week thirteen two TD performance an abberation. In the flex, Marise Lee (SAV) and Anquan Boldin (SAS) are the dependable options. Will they play?
ADVANTAGE: SASKATOON

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Over the past month, David Harris has trended upwards for the Petes, while Thomas Davis and Von Miller have been quiet. Likewise, Bobby Wagner has been just fine, but Anthony Barr and Avery Williamson have seen their productivity dip. Snacks Harrison has been a run gobbler, but Cam Jordan has a great setup for a huge game this week.
ADVANTAGE: SASKATOON

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Byron Maxwell and Ladarius Webb were great additions to a secondary featurinf Mark Barron. Su'a Cravens is likely out for the season, so they'll need to replace him. Daryl Worley and Devin McCourty are fine, while Patrick Peterson and Patrick Chung have name recognition but mild numbers this year.
ADVANTAGE: SASKATOON

KICKER:
Matt Bryant is connected to a dynamite offense, while Stephen Hauschka faces a defense that gives little to kickers. 
ADVANTAGE: SASKATOON

xxx
Two teams with long histories of hard luck, the Deadbeats and Lead Farmers will once again be drafting in the first half of the first round as they have every year since 2011. Both teams were among the contenders rendered also-rans, as Malibu sat at 6-6 with a word on a wing, but couldn't get a win or the help needed to sneak in the playoff's backdoor. HCM finished the season with enough points to tiebreak their way in, but three wins short of qualifying- one of the wins they did get was demolishing Malibuy in week seven, 242-165, the team's zenith. There's always next year... and next year starts now.


QUARTERBACK:
Dak Prescott has hit a little bump in the road- but on the other side of the field, the Colin Kaepernick resurgence tour has also fallen on some hard times. We'll side with the guy who limits mistakes, instead of excaerbating them
ADVANTAGE: MALIBU

RECEIVERS:
The Deadbeats collection of breakout WRs lacks name recognition, but Terrelle Pryor, Davante Adams, Cameron Meredith, Taylor Gabriel, and newcomer Malcolm Mitchell have gotten the job done. TY Hilton and Brandin Cooks are name brands, while Tyreek Hill and Jamison Crowder are on there way to listings on the marquee; Slight edge.
ADVATAGE: HCM CITY

RUNNING BACKS:
Mark Ingram had some struggles midseason and again recently- he faces a tough defense this week. Lamar Miller has been quietly effective most of the year, with a couple of duds mixed in there. Neither is really a liability, but with Todd Gurley and Isaiah Crowell both coming off good games, they're a bit riskier propositions. And if not Gurley or Crowell, Bilal Powell looks like a great alternative.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

TIGHT END & FLEX:
Cameron Brate has turned himself into a decent volume, good red zone threat, the sort of zero cost TE that is ideal in the absence of a name brand. Delanie Walker's output has been very good most of the season, but coming off a down performance and in a tough matchup, doubt exists.
ADVANTAGE: MALIBU

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Neither squad features a true name brand linebacker, but both units get the job done more often than not; Cameron Wake's porjections are low, but his productivity has been high, as he's gotten to the quarterback in eight of his last ten games. 
ADVANTAGE: MALIBU

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Reggie Nelson hasn't been very good down the stretch, but Malcolm Butler, Vernon Hargreaves, and Kam Chancellor have all been great; However, The HCM City secondary loses Deone Bucannon but replaces him with Jimmie Ward, breaking out as a difference maker. The Lead Farmer secondary remains the best in the league.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY 

KICKER:
Nick Novak was huge last week- Cairo Santos hasn't been huge in a month.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

xxx

This will be the final matchup for Toronto and South Park in 2016, as the victor will gain the fifth spot in the draft, and the loser will have to pick sixth, just before New York and Oakwood, respectively. The former co-managers (Toronto, 2012 and 2013) had not been in the consolation bracket since that inaugural 2012 season, which predates the current drafting incentive, so this is something new for them both. Toronto won the season opener over the then-defending champs in dominating fashion, 253-184, good for the third highest score of all time.


QUARTERBACK:
Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins are both better options than Russell Wilson. 
ADVANTAGE: TORONTO

RECEIVERS:
The Fitzgerald-Kearse-Stills-Austin collective makes Snead-Crabtree-Matthews-Jones look very good. WR2s and WR3s all over the place. Not bad! Not great!
ADVANTAGE: SOUTH PARK

RUNNING BACKS:
Le'Veon Bell is a monster, and Spencer Ware isn't bad. Latavius Murray and Rashad Jennings aren't bad, but they're not monsters. I mean, not typically.
ADVANTAGE: SOUTH PARK

TIGHT END & FLEX:
Ladarius Green was quiet after a week 13 breakout, but has a salivating matchup this week; Coby Fleener teased us all with huge games midseason, before settling in as an after thought. In a brutal matchup, he's not the choice.
ADVANTAGE: SOUTH PARK

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Lavonte David and Eric Kendricks have both been good (not great) options at LB, with decent supporting casts. Toronto didn't start Vic Beasley last week, when he erupted for thirty coming off the edge. Call it a hunch, but I expect an encore from the former top pick.
ADVANTAGE TORONTO

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Toronto quietly built an impressive secondary around Morgan Burnett; Keanu Neal has been good for the Cows, but Malcolm Jenkins has been quiet in 2016.
ADVANTAGE: TORONTO

KICKER:
Justin Tucker
ADVANTAGE: TORONTO

xxx

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