We're into the playoffs! Larkspur Bowl VIII is a mere three weeks away. The field has narrowed to six, with Pawnee and Hill Valley receiving byes to the semifinal. We'll break down the matchups by positional group, trying to discern advantages that will inevitably be turned upside down via the ANY GIVEN SUNDAY rule that governs all gridiron exploits. First up: The Larkspur Bowl VIII Bracket!
Since the League moved to a six team playoff field in 2010, the #6 seed has never defeated the #3 seed, putting history on the Island side of things. Of course, Manitoba is no typical #6 seed, as they were in the #2 spot until the waning moments of week thirteen- they come in having dropped three straight, but not exactly stumbling, as their point totals have been north of 200 six weeks in a row. These two teams just faced off last week, with the Islanders winning 228.8 to 202.96. Of note: The Islanders may switch from wk 13's winning QB David Carr to Tyrod Taylor for the sequel; Manitoba is unlikely to start Tim Hightower over difference maker Thomas Rawls again.
QUARTERBACK:
For all the ballyhoo about Rodgers losing a step, he ended up first team All-Larkspur, so... yeah, the rumors of his demise are overblown. The Islanders have been utilizing a platoon of Derek Carr and Tyrod Taylor for the past two months, and have chosen the right quarterback in four out of seven matchups.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA
RECEIVERS:
Odell Beckham is a top five WR, a true game breaker, which sets him apart from every other WR playing in this game. Jordy Nelson has elite upside, and after a mediocre couple of weeks midseason, has put forward double digit output in ten of twelve starts. Steve Smith is about on par with all three of the Isle WRs: Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders, and Tyrell Williams. Every week starters, but not every week difference makers.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA
RUNNING BACKS:
Ezekiel Elliot has been everything he was advertised to be, a rookie thrust into the spotlight and delivering from the get-go. Matt Forte's season has been more of a mixed bag, but almost any team would like to have the utility back at second fiddle. Manitoba's combined upside of Blount and Rawls is perhaps just as high, but the floor isn't- Rawls has only just returned to prominence after injury derailed him in the early going, and Blount's impact can be neutralized by the whimsy of game plan, while Elliot is being fed all the time, non stop.
ADVANTAGE: ISLANDERS
TIGHT END & FLEX:
Travis Kelce is one of the few TEs in the game that can be counted on for regular volume, while also offering the mathcup problems that result in huge plays and big days. Jermaine Gresham is a low octane safety valve that can deliver an acceptable line on volume, but is touchdown dependent for a big game at this point in his career. Neither team has a sure thing in the flex- Brandon LaFell is coming off a great game for the Islanders, while Sterling Shepard has had his moments this year; Manitoba has seen lots of volume for Dontrelle Inman, and TDs in back to back weeks. Coupled with Kelve, they're the choice.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA
DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Both teams feature one difference maker on their defensive front: Khalil Mack on the Islanders, Sean Lee for Manitoba. The rest of the talent in both units is respectable, but not intimidating. Leonard Williams is capable of matching Mack, but cannot be counted on- the mismatch there is enough to swing this to ISL, as Sean Lee's battery mates Craig Robertson and Keenan Robinson are a notch below KJ Wright, Nigel Bradham, and Nick Bellore.
ADVANTAGE: ISLANDERS
DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Both teams have an All-Larkspur team cornerback in their secondary- Casey Hayward has been otherworldly, while Janoris Jenkins has brought superlative consistency to a volatile position. This will come down to who can make the biggest play, and any of the players involved has the potential to make it. The only juicy matchup is Hayward's, and with Eric Weddle's beard set to appear in the ninth...
ADVANTAGE: ISLANDERS
KICKER:
Prater is coming off a big week, matched up against a bad defense in a dome, while Crosby sees a tough defense in the rain.
ADVANTAGE: ISLANDERS
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Deputy and Phoenix last met all the way back in week one, when these squads had very different looks; The Uprising have maintained their top three WRs and their top three LBs, but little else remains; Vontaze Burfict and Jimmy Graham both missed the first matchup, but have been major factors since. The opener claimed Deputy WR Keenan Allen as an early casualty, but most of Deputy's big names (David Johnson, Doug Martin, Kelvin Benjamin, Drew Brees) remain intact, with players like Demaryius Thomas and Kenny Britt added via trade. Both teams have 'secret weapons' they hope to activate next round- Alshon Jeffery for Phoenix, AJ Green for DVH.
QUARTERBACK:
DVH QB Drew Brees and PHX QB Carson Palmer have both had long, successful careers, but only one is a sure-fire hall of famer, and only one is still operating at an All-Larkspur clip.
ADVANTAGE: DEPUTY
RECEIVERS:
Both teams have a capable trio of wideouts- PHX with Dez Bryant, Jarvis Landry, and Stefon Diggs; DVH with Demaryius Thomas, Kenny Britt, and Kelvin Benjamin. Nobody in this group has the current upide of Dez, and nobody in the group has as low a floor as Kelvin.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
RUNNING BACKS:
David Johnson is the answer. If Doug Martin is a full-go, there's no question who has the advantage, but his questionable status opens up an opportunity for Phoenix, as replacement Darren Sproles is just a low volume home run threat. Carlos Hyde and Rob Kelley will get the touches for a silid foundation, but will both need to score to approach the Johnson.
ADVANTAGE: DEPUTY
TIGHT END & FLEX:
Jimmy Graham has a distinct edge over Zach Ertz, though Ertz has alternated big weeks over the past five turns- he's scheduled for a letdown though, so he'd need to buck that trend. In the flex, Phoenix has suffered back to back goose eggs from Antonio Gates and Marques Wilson, along with a 4.7 in week 12 from Michael Floyd. One of those three will have to take the field opposite either Cole Beasley, Tajae Sharpe, or Tyler Locket. A big game at the flex may decide this matchup, but the edge goes to Graham otherwise.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
The Van Halens have shored up a defense that has lost multiple players to injuries and suspension, making shrewd pickups to supplement a core of Aaron Donald and CJ Mosley. But there's not a better linebacking trio in the game than Kwon, Telvin, and Vontaze, so even a Watt-less Uprising are a no brainer in this category.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Injuries have crippled both backfields- the Uprising lost team captain Reshad Jones mid-season, while DVH lost the same in Harrison Smith in the season finale. Phoenix had both of their safeties go down in week thirteen (Earl Thomas is out for the season, while Karl Joseph is questionable for his Thursday game) so it's unclear who plays at safety. Deputy should have Jason McCourty back, as stabilizing a force as there is at corner, and safety Corey Graham is dependable as well. A lot up in the air here.
ADVANTAGE: DEPUTY
KICKER:
Gostkowski is on a bit of a roll while Vinatieri had a nice bounceback game.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
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The Consolation Bowl was won by Hill Valley in back to back years; With the McFlys making it back to the big show, we'll see someone else leading off next year's draft, tentatively scheduled for Sunday, August 27th, at 7:00pm. The top six draft picks are in play here, with Saskatoon and Malibu guaranteed spots in the top four. New York will pick seventh and Oakwood will pick eighth.
The 2017 draft order will follow this 2016 placement: 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 5, 6, 3, 4, 2, 1.
The defending champions were laid low by injury and misfortune this year, and had to bite and scratch just to get into the consolation bracket. The Lead Farmers know a little something about misfortune: they faced the stiffest schedule this season, with opponents putting up 2,686.68 points against, spoiling what was playoff worthy output- 6th overall in points. So it goes! This matchup could easily be the week's highest scoring in either bracket, depending upon how much the team's want it: The top pick in 2017, that is.
QUARTERBACK:
Russel Wilson's inability to maintain the high level of play he showed down the stretch last season (due to some combination of injury and unsustainable greatness) hurt South Park a lot in the first half of the season- but matched up against Colin Kaepernick coming off a trutly dreadful 1 for 5 passing day... These two were peers once. No longer.
ADVANTAGE: SOUTH PARK
RECEIVERS:
The Cows had an enviable group of WRs entering the season, with depth and upside in abundance. Willie Snead and Mavin Jones were TOTW picks in the first month of the season.. but since then, have done a lot of unerperforming, along with Jordan Matthews. Michael Crabtree gives them a quality target, alebeit one that has to settle for some quiet weeks as the other mouths are fed. Flipside, TY Hilton has deen dependably good, Jamison Crowder is one of the unheralded successes of 2016, Tyreek Hill's breakout is for real and oh... Brandin Cooks, who made some noise about targets this week and should get his. Pierre Garcon and a returning Jeremy Maclin give HCM too many viable parts and not enough spots to play them.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY
RUNNING BACKS:
Two teams with quality one-two punches, Le'Veon Bell and Spencer Ware are in the conversation for top duo in the league. Todd Gurley and Isaiah Corwell are as hard nosed as anybody, with sneaky dynamism, but aeach finds themselves in broken offenses that undermine their abilities.
ADVANTAGE: SOUTH PARK
TIGHT END & FLEX:
Delanie Walker and Ladarius Green are both the sort of mercurial plays that boast superior physical attributes, but enigmatically fail to take that next step to consistent weekly prowess. Walker has a longer track record, and along with the glut of flex options mentioned previously, has the edge. But don't sleep on Green, either.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY
DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Each team has a similar defensive build up front: Captained by an elite linebacker (HCM Derrick Johnson; SPC Lavonte David) with second tier LBs on either wing, and a talented DT with sporadic numbers upfront (HCM Sheldon Richardson; SPC Ndamukong Suh) but with HCM backer Nick Perry injured and his replacement yet to be announced, the Cows get benefit of the doubt.
ADVANTAGE: SOUTH PARK
DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Landon Collins. Deone Bucannon. Marcus Peters. DRC.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY
KICKER:
SPC Caleb Sturgis has a ten point game sandwiched between two one point games. I've never heard of HCM Andrew Franks and he just scored -1.0 last week.
ADVANTAGE: SOUTH PARK?
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Well the graphic was already made, so Savannah's consolation bid will be represented by Jason Pierre-Paul, despite the All-Larkspur team defensive lineman's season ending sports hernia. It's somewhat fitting for a team that showed plenty of talent, but just couldn't get it all on the field at the same time for long enough to win. Toronto continued their pattern of oscillating between being one of the most overpowering teams, and one of the most underprepared teams on a weekly basis. That was good enough for a playoff bid in 2013, 2014, and 2015. This year, despite "winning the draft," the team was bad more than it was good, and finds itself relegated to the consolation bracket.
QUARTERBACK:
For the Petes, Tom Brady is the starter. For Les Tres Petites, they have to choose between Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins. All three have shown a penchant for fireworks, but the perils of choosing versus the sure thing made this no choice at all.
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH
RECEIVERS:
Once upon a time, Toronto had an enviable triumvirate of veteran WRs: AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald, and Brandon Marshall were all putting up numbers. But an ill-advised trade of Marshall, followed by an AJ Green injury (and inexplicable drop) have left Fitsgerald the last man standing, and the long season has taken a toll on the veteran's output. Jermaine Kearse, Seth Roberts, Tavon Austin and Kenny Stills impress nobody. Of course, on the other side is disappointing first round pick Allen Robinson, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Kerley, Adam Thelen, Marqise Lee, Andrew Hawkins and Chris Conley. These might be the worst two WR groups in the league. Still, Robinson, Wallace, and Fitzgerald are the only weapons in the bunch- two to one.
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH
RUNNING BACKS:
Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart are both reliable veteran options, while Jordan Howard has justified the buzz as a covert rookie sensation. On the other side of the ball, Latavius Murray seems to have both underachieved and overachieved, falling from grace and then suffering an injury, only to return to a level of prominence that had seemed unlikely earlier in the season. Likewise, Rashad Jennings has seen his role come full circle after reutrning from an injury. The position is basically a toss-up, but with Howard's upside a bit higher than Murray's, and Gore/Stewart having a slightly more dependable floor than Jennings, with the insurance of a second option...
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH
TIGHT END & FLEX:
Both teams have TEs on their roster that have had their season end- Savannah holding on to Gronk for sentimental purposes is understandable. Toronto giving away AJ Green to keep Zach Miller is inexcusable, one of the worst moves in the league this season. Coby Fleener has the upside edge over Dennis Pitta, though Pitta's coming off his biggest game in years.
ADVANTAGE: TORONTO
DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Jason Pierre-Paul's injury leaves a gaping hole in the Pete defense; Thomas Davis has been joined by a steady David Harris, with Von Miller providing one helluva lottery ticket, but replacing JPP will be a tough task. Carlos Dunlap has had back to back great games with a juicy matchup, and Eric Kendricks and Lawrence Timmons are an above average duo. The third LB slot is an achilles heel- Will Compton has been below average for a month, and Vic Beasley isn't on Von Miller's level yet. Still! Unless Savannah strikes gold at DL this week...
ADVANTAGE: TORONTO
DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Daryl Worley is out; Pat Pete is too well regarded as a cover man to have an opportunity to make many big plays. And the Devin McCourty/Patrick Chung tandem is better schematically than impactfully. TJ Ward and Morgan Burnett are a better duo at safety, while Joe Haden and Robert Alford have put up quality numbers in the past.
ADVANTAGE: TORONTO
KICKER:
Justin Tucker is the best.
ADVANTAGE: TORONTO
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