Wednesday, December 21, 2016

2016: Final Round Matchups

Larkspur Bowl VIII culminates this week, the conclusion of the eighth season of Larkspur Football. It's been a great season- fourteen teams competing every week, churning and optimizing team rosters all the way to the end. Thanks to all of the managers for participating in another year! Good luck in your final games (whatever the stakes) and mark your 2017 calendars: we're drafting for LBIX on Sunday 08/27/2017.


A rematch of Larkspur Bowl V, the McFlys and Uprising have a long history that will be explored in depth on a subsequent blog posting. Hill Valley blew the doors off Phoenix in their regular season meeting, winning 225-125 back in week five, a week notable for being Jay Ajayi's final turn in orange before he was cut and reemerged with Pawnee. Both rosters have changed significantly in the last three months, and we should see a much more competitive gridiron this week.


QUARTERBACK:
Cam Newton's numbers haven't been incredible this year, but he still has the capacity to take over a game with his arm or his legs, his matchup is prime, and his setup is juicy. Phoenix turned the reins over to Carson Palmer for their playoffs run, but appears to have gone back to Andy Dalton, who led the team in its first ten games. 
ADVANTAGE: HILL VALLEY

RECEIVERS:
Both team boast enviable big fours: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Golden Tate, and Michal Thomas boast more ability to take over a game, but Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Jarvis Landry, and Stefon Diggs have a more substantial floor. Over the course of the season that baseline might be preferable, but in a winner take all standoff, you gotta reach for the stars.
ADVANTAGE: HILL VALLEY

RUNNING BACKS:
Shady McCoy and Jeremy Hill are both top level talents in line for premium workloads, with little positive or negative context. Carlos Hyde is in a similar situation, but part of a less proficcient offense; Rob Kelley is a relatively subpar talent, with the least inviting matchup. The winner will be whomever milks the most touchdowns out of their runners. 
ADVANTAGE: HILL VALLEY

TIGHT END & FLEX:
Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham are dead even on the season, with Rudolph coming on strong down the stretch; He also has a neutral matchup, while Graham is going into the hornet's nest. Both teams have reasonable auxiliaries: Eric Ebron for Hill Valley, Antonio Gates for Phoenix. Nearly a push, but gotta roll with the hot hand here.
ADVANTAGE: HILL VALLEY

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Olivier Vernon has been a monster of consistency in the back half of the season, rolling up double digits in seven of his last eight games; Rookie DeForest Buckner cannot match that, but does have an inviting scenario and has shown an aptitude to eat young quarterbacks up for big games. Both teams have a wealth of top end linebackers, but the Uprising quartet of Alexander, Smith, Burfict, and Shazier is just a bit deeper- Alec Ogletree is all universe, but Orr is more high floor than ceiling, and Jamie Collins' production fluctuates more wildly than you'd prefer.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Both teams have had revolving doors all season, but HVM S Tony Jefferson gets a bit of a nod over Kurt Coleman's ragtag group; The Uprising seem likely to go big or go home, while the McFlys have a steadier presence. A gamble as always, but with the rest of the team so solid, the Hill Valley secondary likely wont lose it for them.
ADVANTAGE: HILL VALLEY

KICKER:
Phoenix chose their kicker before Hill Valley so that has to be some sort of edge. 
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

xxx

For Pawnee, the third place game is a bitter pill to swallow after getting to LBVII and then leading the league in wins. However, they'll need to deal with disappointment and rally to confront a Manitoba team that put together a much better semifinal effort, and would be proud to finish third. The teams met just under a month ago, when Pawnee won 234-217 despite being without their defensive captain Luke Kuechly. Melvin Gordon is questionable to return for this one, as is Crew All-Larkspur CB Janoris Jenkins.


QUARTERBACK:
Aaron Rodgers is better than Eli Manning or Phil Rivers.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

RECEIVERS:
Mike Evans is coming off a down week, while Jordy Nelson and Odell Beckham are among the high scorers week in and week out. DeAndre Hopkins' season has bounced back with changes as the helm, but he hasn't lived up to the first round pedigree he was selected for.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

RUNNING BACKS:
Jay Ajayi's season feels like an aftershock of Dev Freeman's 2015- loud mid season emergence followed by an abundance of work and gradual wearing down. Melvin Gordon is questionable, leaving Dion Lewis as the heir apparent to go for bronze. I'd bet on Blount and Rawls bouncing back after meh semifinal performances.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

TIGHT END & FLEX:
PAW Greg Olsen and MMC Travis Kelce are both among the elite at the position, but Olsen is questionable, while Kelce is coming off a quiet week. In the flex, Dontrelle Inman has been a MooseCrew revelation, while Brandon Marshall has disappointed the Pride.
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Without Luke Kuechly, Pawnee is just a different team; Kiko Alonso wasn't himself coming off of injury, and there was barely a whisper from Justin Houston last week. Sean Lee is the difference here, with Mason Foster availing himself nicely henever he gets snaps. 
ADVANTAGE: MANITOBA

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Eric Berry has come up with a ton of big plays this year, and the Pawnee defensivebacks are an opportunistic bunch. While Hasean Clinton-Dix and Jon Cyprien are stellar on the backend, they're both due for a bit of regression coming off monster weeks, and Janoris Jenkins being out leaves the Crew shorthanded.
ADVANTAGE: PAWNEE

KICKER:
Don't say Blitzkrieg around Janikowski and Gostkowski. We'll give it to the saddest team.
ADVANTAGE: PAWNEE

xxx

Neat quirk- the Larkspur Bracket and Consolation Bracket were exact opposites, in terms of advancement. Whomever advanced in the top bracket, the inverse position advanced in the bottom.

The top pick in the draft will go to one of these teams, each a charter member of the league. HCM had the top pick in 2012 (when the draft was a random lottery, rather than a consolation bid) while Saskatoon lost in this spot last year, but was able to nab Julio Jones with the second overall pick. His return would go a long way towards improving upon that position for next year, as the Sasquatch receiving corps limps to the finish. The Lead Farmers lost Deone Bucannon last week, and this week his replacement Jimmie Ward went down as well.


QUARTERBACK:
Matt Ryan is so much better than Colin Kaepernick.
ADVANTAGE: SASKATOON

RECEIVERS:
Brandin Cooks reminded everyone that rumors of his demise were premature last week; TY Hilton and Pierre Garcon round out a quality group that is just so much healthier than the sasquatch trio of Julio Jones, Sammy Watkins, and Donte Moncrief. Watkins was the only one who played last week... poorly.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

RUNNING BACKS:
Bilal Powell has really turned head swith his hard nosed and dynamic playstyle- given the lion's share of carries, he has prospered. Todd Gurley, Isaiah Crowell, and Terrance West are all similar runners, except... Gurley is fa rmore talented. Ryan Mathews showed he can still play last week, but lets not factor him in as an advantage just yet.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

TIGHT END & FLEX:
HCM Delanie Walker is healthy and steady, which is more than can be said for SAS Jordan Reed, who was thrown out of a game last week for throwing a right hook. Tyreek Hill is establishing himself as a swiss army weapon, giving him an edge over JJ Nelson, despite the latter scoring in back to back to back weeks. 
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
SAS DE Cameron Jordan actually outscored all three of his team's linebackers combined last week... and he only scored a (respectable) 12.5. The Lead Farmer front is not scaring anyone, but as is, they have the edge here. 
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
The Lead Farmers turn to Vonn Bell as their third safety in three weeks; the other three members of their secondary make up for it. Mark Barron remains a stud, but he's not better than Landon Collins, DRC, and Marcus Peters on his own.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

KICKER:
"Nick Novak is one of the hottest kickers in the league."
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

xxx

The difference between the third and fourth pick could be huge- with three marquee WRs in the league (Brown, Beckham, Jones) and three marquee RBs (Johnson, Elliot, Bell) the fourth pick could conceivably be shut out of one of those positions. The winner of this game can guarantee themselves a top player at either position- something to play for! Malibu has a couple of key players struggling with injuries: WR Terrelle Pryor and RB Lamar Miller are both questionable. Savannah's remaining players have a clean bill of health, but they'll need to lean on Thomas Edwards Patrick Brady Junior putting up numbers in this one after a quiet round last week.


QUARTERBACK:
Tom Brady.
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH

RECEIVERS:
Savannah was led astray by Allen Robinson- Mike Wallace has been a solid contributor, but he's not a top number one option; Marqise Lee is an exciting playmaker but not reliable enough to be considered an asset. The Deadbeat WRs continue to be an underrated batch of no-name, big production receivers- shuffled up properly, they're quietly among the best in the league.
ADVANTAGE: MALIBU

RUNNING BACKS:
Jon Stewart didn't retire. Not this one- he had a huge week last week and should have his number called upon again. Teamed up with rookie sensation Jordan Howard, its a one-two punch that outclasses a hobbled Lamar Miller and Mark Ingram, who could be benched at any time, despite the upper echelon talent level.
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH

TIGHT END & FLEX:
Cameron Brate has turned himself into a high upside TE2, while Dennis Pitta is a lowupside TE3. Adam Thielen's injury forces Jeremy Kerley into the flex, where he's been serviceable once in the past two months. Which is better than Chris Conley or Andrew Hawkins. Davante Adams, Terrelle Pryor, Cameron Meredith, Taylor Gabriel, Malcolm Mitchell, and Travis Benjamin are all better bets. 
ADVANTAGE: MALIBU

DEFENSIVE LINE & LINEBACKERS:
Malibu's reputation as a defensive mastermind is well earned, despite investing minimal resources (draft picks, waiver claims) in the pursuit. Past captain Thomas Davis, Savannah's front seven has been a train wreck all year. 
ADVANTAGE: MALIBU

DEFENSIVE BACKS:
Savannah gets Chris COnte back to pair with Devin McCourty, Patrick Peterson, and rookie Daryl Worley; For Malibu, Malcolm Butler has a great matchup and Kam Chancellor has a great chance to rebound after a down return, but we'll call this one for Savannah.
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH

KICKER:
IDFK!
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH

xxx

No comments:

Post a Comment