Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Power Rankings: Week Twelve

With a week left in the season, this year's crop of playoff teams have already been decided. The top four teams all secured a berth, before parity and variance took over- the eigth and tenth place teams secured winning records, through a combination of steady scoring, timely scoring, and lucky scoring.




















*1. Phoenix 10-2 2196.80 1757.91 W-7
Winners of seven straight, and assured a bye, the Uprising have scored 150 points more than their closest rival. With elite assets at nearly every position, they just have to hope to stay healthy and keep the run going. If they have an achilles heel, it is underwhelming DB play; They also lost their highly rated K Steve Hauschka in a surprise waiver claim to Toronto.

*2. Orgrimmar 8-4 2046.27 1916.90 W-2
After their quick start, the Horde suffered some trials and tribulations before getting back on track. With a win against Silver City, they will likely slide into the two seed, and enjoy a first round bye- which would mean they would not need to count on Colin Kaepernick in a tough matchup with the Seahawks. If Randall Cobb is able to contribute in the final weeks, he could be a difference maker, but Kendall Wright and Cecil Shorts have done an admirable job of filling in.

*3. Toronto 7-5 2040.41 1846.40 W-1
LTP has suffered an identity crisis at QB, and will be in trouble if either of their slight feature backs go down, with none in reserve. But they've made the playoffs as a wild card, and with tactical know-how and fortitude, are equipped to optimize their lineup well enough to defeat any team, any given week. DeSean Jackson might be the X-Factor: With juicy matchups down the stretch, he will be relied upon to exceed expectations.

*4. Hill Valley 8-4 2000.54 1855.59 W-3
The McFlys have shrugged off adversity, broken the 2,000 point plateau, and could clinch the #2 seed with a win, and some help from Silver City. Nick Foles has been a revealation, and might retain his starter's role if he can keep slinging it with perfection. A bye week would be a huge advantage for informing their decision behind center, as they would have a week to audition Rodger's health before having to make a call with all the chips on the table.

5. Chicago   5-7 1859.24 1813.17 L-5
Da Bear's misery continues, as they have tumbled hard from 5-2. After four straight weeks of sub-130 output, the windy city warriors put up a respectable 152 this week, but got trounced by a focused Toronto team. It's a disappointing season for a team that will remain under .500 over the course of five LFL seasons. It will be interesting to see if they can regroup and challenge in the Consolation bracket- their WR group remains an elite group, and is the key to their success.

6. New York 4-8 1840.23 1897.40 W-2
It's been a tough season for the Finest, but they seem to be rounding into form now; Too little, too late perhaps, but enough to challenge for a high draft pick in 2014. Poor play by the signal caller has doomed a Big Apple team that has gotten above average production everywhere else on the field- it will be interesting to see if this influences their approach, and they select a field general early next year.

7. Pawnee 4-8 1833.44 1869.66 L-4
The PJers have always been on the cusp of contention, but for a damning losing streak. In 2010 they had two three game losing streaks in a span of seven games. In 2011 they dropped seven straight after winning their first two, before winning out in the final month. In 2012 they won three, then lost three, then alternated the rest of the season. And now they have lost four straight since fighting back to .500. They have to work out a new strategy for preemptive adjustments in 2014.

*8. Silver City   8-4  1815.03 1802.32 L-2
The FC from SC has enjoyed a charmed season, backing into a playoff spot in week eleven. As a result, they protected their lineup, resting their bye weekers without finding substitutes, and folded it in early, foregoing the inside track they had on a first round bye. They could still snag it with a win and some help from Flint, but they have made it a lot tougher on themselves as they enter crunch time.

9. Levee 5-7 1739.36 1960.94 L-2
The G-Men faced the toughest onslaught this season, and vindicated themselves fairly well, posting a respectable season despite adversity. Still, they never truly contended, never managing to breach .500 again after their win in the first week. 2013 will go down as their fourth losing season in five tries- with a good draft and some better luck, 2014 might be the year they take a long awaited step forward.

*10. California 7-5 1723.42 1764.06 W-4
Don't call it a comeback? A talented team struggles, but ends up scratching and clawing their way into the playoffs, then goes off for a Cinderella run. The Swag won the title last year with a similar script, and after winning four straight, have an opportunity to produce the sequel. They took a long way around, but they've built another stacked lineup, peaking just in time to give the higher seeds a big reason to worry.

11. Flint  5-7 1722.92 1833.88 L-3
This team emerged from turmoil and looked primed for a breakout, but after a demoralizing loss to Levee in week ten on a last second booth review, the Aristocrats petered out. They still have a smartly engineered team that could dominate the consolation bracket and lock in a top pick for 2014, giving Ownership an opportunity to draw up their own championship machination.

12. Bristol 4-8 1665.70 1802.76 L-1
The Executioners underachieved through the middle of the season, and now need to drop the number one Uprising to get into the consolation bracket. With well chronicled derision for the draft undermining their compulsion, this week's season ender is a strictly personal grudge match; Since Phoenix beat Bristol in the last second of the 2011 Semis, they are only 11-17 combined. Ugg. (Tom Brady wears them.)

13. Atlanta 5-7 1611.37 1813.66 L-1
The Rage got going a little bit, winning three in a row and looking all mystical and shit, like a team of destiny. Then they lost to New York, and the rose is off the bud again. A win and they're into the consolation bracket, where they have an opportunity to clinch something they've never had before: A top four draft slot.

14. Oakwood 4-8 1610.71 1770.79 W-1
Oakwood made themselves respectable, even if their early going misfortune locked them in the cellar. It's unlikely they will get an opportunity to battle for top pick, instead locking into the middle of the first round, which should lend itself to a more balanced team next year. It was an impressive bit of managing to rebound like this, and their Foster trade will end up being the biggest windfall of this year's thirty coop transactions, boding well for 2014.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Week Twelve Results

The Playoff teams have been set: Phoenix, Orgrimmar, Hill Valley, Silver City, Toronto, and California.


OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK:
Week Twelve: WR Josh Gordon, Hill Valley 39.7 pts
14 Receptions .5 7.00
237 Reception Yards 0.1 23.70
BONUS: Reception Yards > 100 1.00
BONUS: Reception Yards > 150 1.00
BONUS: Reception Yards > 200 1.00
1 Reception Touchdowns 6 6.00





DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK:
Week Twelve: LB Von Miller, Pawnee 32 pts

6 Tackle Solo 1 6.00
2 Tackle Assist 0.5 1.00
2.0 Sack 2 4.00
1 Fumble Force 3 3.00
1 Fumble Recovery 3 3.00
1 Defensive Touchdown 7 7.00
2 Tackles for Loss 2.5 5.00
60 TO Return Yards 0.05 3.00


BEST PLAY: WR Kendall Wright, Orgrimmar 20.3 Pts

WORST BENCH: Bristol Executioners, Three Unused Slots


Monday, November 25, 2013

Monday Evening Quarterback

Too Close to Call:

Orgrimmar 170.55 vs Pawnee 144.82
The Horde have a sizable lead over the PJers, and their quarterback still to play- but Colin Kaepernick has been disappointing, while Pawnee's runningback duo of Alfred Morris and Frank Gore have been remarkably consistent. Add in LB Aldon Smith, and Pawnee has trimmed Orgrimmar's chances of holding onto its lead to 45%. With a win, Orgrimmar is the favorite for the number two seed, while the PJers are angling to cement a seeding in the consolation bracket.

Oakwood 154.48 vs Bristol 141.96
Two disappointed teams are taking the battle down to the wire, as they each try to stay out of the bottom of the standings. The Drivers had two inactives go in week twelve, but still have the advantage on the Executioners, who need LB Perry Riley to come up with thirteen points tonight to get the win. According to Yahoo! there's a 33% chance of that prophecy coming to pass.

Best Start and Worst Bench will be released tomorrow.


Thursday, November 21, 2013

Trade Review Beta

I decided to compile a list of trades, and declare winners and losers of each, based on sheer numbers- the total amount of points scored for each team, by the players involved. Of course, this is not the end all and be all of trades- it does not figure in context, which is typically the primary motivation for a move, nor does it factor in positional value. I'll probably updated this chart at least one more time (at the end of the regular season) and perhaps more.

Players listed in RED were eventually dropped. Players listed in GREEN were eventually traded again.

When a TOTAL score is highlighted in black, that means that the score is locked in, and will not change.

Players that have a slight orange highlight are still active members of their team, able to contribute additional scoring going forward.

Bench points did not count toward the player's production.



















































































(Total Trades) Team "Record"
(10) Hill Valley 5-5
(9) Phoenix 4-4-1
(7) Pawnee 2-3-2
(5) Flint 2-2-1
(5) Chicago 2-3
(4) Oakwood 2-1-1
(4) Toronto 2-2
(4) Atlanta 2-2
(3) California 1-1-1
(3) Silver City 0-3
(2) New York 2-0
(2) Bristol 2-0
(2) Levee 1-1
(2) Orgrimmar 1-1

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Rundown: This Is It

We only have two more weeks remaining in the regular season.

Two teams have clinched playoff spots:

1. Phoenix Uprising 9-2

2. Silver City Football Club 8-3

Eight teams are competing for the final four spots:

3. Orgrimmar Horde 7-4

4. Hill Valley McFlys 7-4

5. Toronto LTP 6-5

6. California Swag 6-5

7. Chicago BP Bears 5-6

8. Levee G-Men 5-6

9. Flint Aristocrats 5-6

10. Atlanta Rage 5-6

Four teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and instead angle to avoid the bottom two spots in the standings, earning a berth in the consolation bowl that determines the 2014 draft order:

11. Pawnee PJers 4-7

12. Bristol Executioners 4-7

13. New York's Finest 3-8

14. Oakwood Drivers 3-8


  • After this week's penultimate slate of games, the final power rankings will be released. Following week thirteen, I will release a comprehensive quantified trade review, in which all thirty deals are graded and ranked for impact. 
  • Then focus will turn to the playoffs: The winner's bracket leading to the LARKSPUR BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP, the consolation bracket dictating the top six picks in next year's draft. 
  • Afterwards, the All-Larkspur game will take place in week 17: The Six Playoff teams will send their best lineup against the best players from the other eight teams. 
  • I'll be updating the record book to account for 2013's best performances, archiving the weekly awards for the season, doling out LARKIES to all of the team managers, and naming the ALL-WIRE team, composed of the best players that were added via waivers and free agency.
  • Finally, during the off-season I will archive this year's stats and prepare the website for next year's LARKSPUR BOWL.

ALRIGHT BOYS, HERE WE GO, 
HOLD ONTO YOUR BUTTS!

Week Eleven Results




OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK:
Week 11: WR Calvin Johnson, Phoenix Uprising (34.9 pts)
6 Receptions .5 3.00
179 Reception Yards 0.1 17.90
BONUS: Reception Yards > 100 1.00
BONUS: Reception Yards > 150 1.00
2 Reception Touchdowns 6 12.00





DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK:
Week 11: LB Vontaze Burfict, Orgrimmar Horde (31.65 pts)
10 Tackle Solo 1 10.00
5 Tackle Assist 0.5 2.50
1 Fumble Force 3 3.00
1 Fumble Recovery 3 3.00
1 Defensive Touchdown 7 7.00
1 Pass Defended 3 3.00
1 Tackles for Loss 2.5 2.50
13 TO Return Yards 0.05 0.65

Monday, November 18, 2013

Monday Dinner Time Quarterback

Too Close to Call:

Atlanta 133.36 vs. Silver City 133.32
In one of the most exciting matchups of the season, the Rage are on the cusp of upsetting Silver City, the 7-2 purple team holding only a 35% chance of pushing their winning streak to five. With the game in virtual gridlock, it will come down to Atlanta's LB Luke Kuechly and S Mike Mitchell squaring up against SCFC RB Stevan Ridley and CB Devin McCourty. A big play by any of the four will be the difference tonight.

Phoenix 178.17 vs Levee 170.51
The other 7-2 team also has its hands full in week 11, as the 5-5 G-Men have a one-in-four shot of dropping the Uprising. Phoenix is spotted an eight point lead, with CB Aqib Talib lining up for them tonight. Talib is coming off of a hip injury, and is listed as questionable- if he aggravates it, all bets are off. WR Aaron Dobson takes the field for Levee, coming off back to back big weeks.

Pawnee 164.86 vs California 163.63
In another nailbiter, Pawnee has a tiny margin to play with, leading by just over a point. The Swag's deadline maneuvering left them with WR Steve Smith, and he will be launched into the fire in his first start with the defending champions, needing only to push past the whole number threshold, while a big day for the diminutive veteran would put them beyond the reproach of even stat corrections.

BEST PLAY: TE Delanie Walker, California (20.1 pts)
The Swag were compelled to trade Rob Gronkowski during his bye week, as they need every game going forward to cement their playoff push. To replace him, they acquired Jason Witten, who subsequently went on bye the week after. No matter- the Swag picked up Walker, who put up numbers good enough for the silver medal through Sunday.

WORST BENCH: RB Bobby Rainey, Bristol (34.7 pts) 
For the second straight week, this is a thoroughly defensible move, as any owner with other options would have opted to keep Rainey on the bench. But like a winning scratch off lottery ticket you accidentally threw in the garbage, Rainey's huge day won't count for the Executioners, and is void of the silver lining of trade value as well. If he can remain a stalwart, expect him to get a few turns through the Bristol lineup before the season ends, as Vince is one of the league's most fearless opportunists.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Trade Review: Lucky Charms

Trade Thirty: Phoenix/Chicago

On the eve of the deadline, Phoenix acquired RB Brian Leonard and flipped him to Chicago for RB Ryan Mathews. Mathews started the season with the Uprising, before being bundled up and sent to Chicago in exchange for Eddie Lacy. He returns to Phoenix, (where he was a part of their 2010 and 2011 championship runs) at the turning of the tide: With eight wins, Phoenix has basically clinched a playoff spot, and is busy shoring up depth options. Chicago gets a versatile RB who can do a little bit of everything, is playing for his collegiate coach, and has inherited a major role due to injuries.

Phoenix reacquires RB Ryan Mathews




Chicago acquires RB Brian Leonard

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Trade Review: Now for Something Entirely Different

Trade Twenty-Nine: Chicago/Toronto

In a drastic change of course, Les Tres Petites acquired QB Case Keenum, who has shown promise through three games. Toronto lost a tight matchup to Phoenix this past week, and Cam Newton behind center took the brunt of the blame, failing to log a full integer: He's been placed on the trading block. Keenum was third on the Chicago depth chart, and the team thought enough of him to keep him on the roster in lieu of a kicker this past week; Now they exchange him for WR Anquan Boldin and RB Andre Ellington. Both are useful parts, and will likely be inserted liberally based upon matchups, giving Chicago a deep roster to manage down the stretch- Alex Smith will return to the starter's role, with Keenum's departure and Cutler's re-injury.

Chicago acquired WR Anquan Boldin & RB Andre Ellington















Toronto acquired QB Case Keenum

Week Ten Results



BEST PLAY: RB Darren Sproles, New York (22.25 pts)
New York sent RB Chris Johnson to the McFlys for their underutilized scatback, Darren Sproles; He then started Sproles over RB Pierre Thomas, who was actually even more productive in week ten. But the upgrade from Johnson to Sproles was significant, and without the trade, CJ2K would have likely logged another subpar week for the Finest. In the end, it didn't matter, as New York lost again, plummeting from first to worst in less than a year. They have three more weeks to dig themselves out of their grave, and get a chance to compete for the top pick in the consolation bowl.



WORST BENCH: WR Tavon Austin, Atlanta (40 pts)
On the flip side, we have Atlanta, who won their matchup to string two wins together for the first time all season, but left would-be offensive player of the week Tavon Austin on the bench, and will miss his bulkload of points this week when it comes to tiebreakers. After acquiring Austin from Toronto, Austin has been active thrice, with minimal productivity: His highlight reel performance would be tough to prognosticate, and occurred with minimal touches, so I'd give him a pass on this one, except... 40 points is just too much to not regret.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK:
WR Demaryius Thomas, Levee 33.3 pts
7 Receptions .5 3.50
108 Reception Yards 0.1 10.80
BONUS: Reception Yards > 100 1.00
3 Reception Touchdowns 6 18.00





DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK:
CB Lardarius Webb, Hill Valley 27.5 pts
2 Tackle Solo 1 2.00
3 Tackle Assist 0.5 1.50
1 Interception 6 6.00
6 Pass Defended 3 18.00

Monday, November 11, 2013

Monday Night Quarterback: Week Ten

Too Close to Call:

Levee 152.82 vs Flint 134.34
The G-Men have a 40% chance of holding on to this one, as Aristocrats RB Lamar Miller and LB Dannell Ellerbe need to meet projections and combine for twenty points to keep this socioeconomic metaphor intact.

Oakwood 141.68 vs Silver City 137.20
The Drivers have a 30% shot of staving off SCFC, but it is two dogs against one: The 7-2 FC sends WR Brian Hartline and S Reshad Jones into Bad Newz Kennel against TE Charles Clay.

Toronto 156.41 vs Phoenix 155.72
In a battle of heavyweights, it's coming down to the last punch: TE Tim Wright needs to score one point to KO Les Tres Petites. If he's held scoreless, or pushed into the red, Toronto makes good on its 11% bid to prove victorious. This one may not truly be decided til Stat Correction Thursday.

New York 105.69 vs Bristol 96.10
In a battle of who can possibly score less, Bristol needs three guys (RB Mike James and CBs Darrelle Revis and Brent Grimes) to combine for less than ten points to be the most pathetic bunch of losers in the league. Only an 8% chance of that happening though.

Hill Valley 145.87 vs Orgrimmar 134.14
The Horde had some early momentum, but come in with just a 6% chance of victory- their kicker, Caleb Sturgis, and LB Mason Foster will have a tough time outscoring LB Lavonte David and WRs Vincent Jackson and Mike Wallace, especially with the McFlys spotted nearly a dozen points.

BEST PLAY AND WORST BENCH WILL BE PUBLISHED TOMORROW.


Saturday, November 9, 2013

Trade Review: End Game Posturing

Trade Twenty-Eight: New York/Hill Valley

The Finest and the McFlys finally made a swap, after a season's worth of haggling: RB Chris Johnson heads to Hill Valley for RB Darren Sproles and CB Tim Jennings. The McFlys get a healthy rusher in Johnson, albeit one at an advanced age and a cemented pedigree as a home-run threat: Johnson scores via the big play. They move the last healthy-ish member of their offense in Sproles, who has seen reduced looks in recent weeks, but is tied to a far more prolific offense. Both backs figure to be third options when everyone is healthy, so the trade's winner will be the team that plugs them in on the right week. CB Tim Jennings was kicked in too, a CB with gamechanging potential: CB's point totals are built upon big weeks, pick sixes the most matchup altering single play in the game. Jennings has the potential to do it at any time: He has scored 16, 25.2, and 35.2 in three separate weeks this season; Figuring he might do it another two or three times, that could mean two of three wins for the Finest.

New York receives RB Darren Sproles & CB Tim Jennings







Hill Valley receives RB Chris Johnson