Friday, October 25, 2013

Roster Depth Analysis

The trading deadline is exactly three weeks away, so we're going to take a look at some sheer numbers, as we evaluate roster depth. For this exercise, I've utilized Yahoo!'s "Rest of Season Projections" to deem players 'useful,' over the rest of the season. I arbitrarily made the 'useful' designation 75 points. Each team is then assigned a fraction, with the first number being 'useful' players, and the second being total players at each respective position. We're only calculating offensive depth positions in this format: Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends; Obviously the latter two combine to fill the last flex position. Teams are ranked by how many 'useful' players they have, with extra players providing a tiebreaker- obviously, value can hinge on an injury or a change in scheme, with context and production shifting the paradigm weekly; Many of these (ahem) fifty-three players players deemed lesser than the eighty-four 'useful' players will end up contributing important points. Just a note: QBs, Defenses, and Kickers are not factored into this depth discussion.

New York's Finest 9/11
RB 3/4
WR 5/5
TE 1/2
The Finest have a multitude of very solid players, without any truly elite options; All five of their WR options are startable, and after navigating the bye weeks, their success will depend upon coaching decisions, and careful analysis of matchups. There is depth here for a plausible two for one upgrade if another team gets desperate, but a slow and steady methodical approach, mixed with a little bit of luck might be the recipe to get the Finest back on track. (That fraction looks a little eerie.)

Phoenix Uprising 9/9
RB 3/3
WR 4/4
TE 2/2
The Uprising are the only team to have purged all 'useless' depth from the roster, having streamlined their team for maximum efficiency. Their bye weeks line up, but if the injury imp hits their squad, it will wreck havoc on this team's bottom line.

Toronto LTP 8/12
RB 3/4
WR 4/6
TE 1/2
Les Tres Petites are a deep bunch, with multiple contingencies at every position; Their WR group is probably the LFL's deepest, both in real terms, and in kinetic value. At the season's inception, the team was lauded for its deep backfield, with four bankable RBs; Only one of those four (Reggie Bush) remain with the team, but Toronto has shrewdly stayed ahead of the curve, relying on playmakers rather than plowhorses.

Hill Valley McFlys 8/11
RB 3/4
WR 3/5
TE 2/2
The McFlys are traditionally depth specialists, and had this feature run earlier in the season, they'd likely have topped it. But after bundling to make upgrades and suffering some major injuries (Notably, Reggie Wayne's season ender) Hill Valley finds its coffers a little lighter than usual. If Arian Foster and Ray Rice can get healthy and back to the production they've churned out over the last few years, RB Darren Sproles (thus far a model of health) might be dangled to restock the WR corps, which jettisoned Hakeem Nicks just before Wayne's injury.

Silver City FC 8/9
RB 2/3
WR 5/5
TE 1/1
The Football Club from Silver City has an efficient model; Their recent waiver claim of emergent TE Jordan Reed was timely, as they lost JerMichael Finley for the year. Their modicum of WR options are serviceable, but with only mediocre upside; They'd do well to bundle their depth in an attempt to get a bankable asset on the edges. RB LeSean McCoy has pulled a lot of double duty, covering for their lack of a definitive RB2 to date... Stevan Ridley's value is in the trash, but if he can rebound, it would go a long way for the purple team.

Orgrimmar Horde 7/12
RB 2/3
WR 4/6
TE 1/3
The Horde have taken some lumps lately, but are uniquely equipped to manage for their biggest loss; WR Randall Cobb is on IR, but aims to return for the LFL playoffs. With his roster spot available, and with Orgrimmar atop the standings at 6-1, they don't need to overreact. RB MoJo-Drew hasn't been able to conjure much success- if they can turn his name brand into an appreciating but under appreciated RB, they'll turn a profit. Their league high three TE set is likely a one week anomaly- starter Antonio Gates and veritable backup and flew option Coby Fleener are both on bye, Jermaine Gresham but an interloper.

Flint Aristocrats 7/12
RB 4/7
WR 2/4
TE 1/1
The Aristocrats have made quietly amassed the most RB depth in the league. RBs Zac Stacy, Trent Richardson, and Lamar Miller are not All-Larkspur candidates, but they are steadfast producers, weekly cornerstones for the fledgling franchise. The Aristocrats cashed in their waiver claim for Doug "Dont Call Me Muscle Hamster" Martin, who has vowed to return in week ten from a torn labrum. Piled on to the back end are Ben Tate and Mike Tolbert, both role players with guaranteed touches, and RB Shane Vereen, soon to return from the IR. Flint has positioned itself to make a big gain in the trade market- look for them to address their hole at the flex.

California Swag 6/10
RB 1/3
WR 4/5
TE 1/2
The Swag are in the unenviable position of not having a single dependable RB- Top pick Steven Jackson is finally returning after a month on the shelf recuperating, while RBs Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell have ceded carries to each other week to week, without warning. The return of the Gronk gives them a game breaker, while Pierre Garcon flirts with bonafide WR1 status, but their other pieces have Las Vegas vibe to them- a gamble every time. A better gamble might be a blockbuster- putting Gronk and Garcon together in a 5 for 5 firesale, and getting back a new lineup of better complements for QB Drew Brees.

Oakwood Drivers 6/10
RB 3/3
WR 3/6
TE 0/1
The Drivers are not a great team, in fact they are probably pretty bad- they have the least total points, after all. But they have also been addled by bad luck, and could very easily be 3-4 right now. They have the pieces to put together a competitive lineup every week, and don't need to drastically restructure their build to get some wins, they just need some good fortune.

Chicago BiPolarBears 6/8
RB 1/3
WR 4/4
TE 1/1
With the smallest arsenal of offensive firepower in the league, Chicago has to count on all of it's big guns to make shots that count. TE Jimmy Graham's injury is a big blow to their contention- the team is built to exploit his advantage over the competition. These next three weeks (8/9/10) will be a very bumpy ride for the BPBs, with bye weeks riddling their skeleton crew to absolutely bare bones. The RB position has been the team's achilles heel all year; Finding an improvement in the backfield has to be their priority.

Levee G-Men 5/12
RB 3/5
WR 2/5
TE 0/2
The G-Men have the most 'less useful' players rostered- seven of them. At 3-4, they have stayed afloat on the strength of their dual WR1s, Andre Johnson and Demaryius Thomas, and steady play from RB Frank Gore and QB Tony Romo; Everyone else is a wash. They might be keen to try and move RB CJ Spiller for a more dependable asset- and they should be on the lookout for a TE, as they've been a black hole at the spot.

Atlanta Rage 5/11
RB 2/3
WR 2/7
TE 1/1
Drinking the Falcohol has been tough this year, as the Rage bumbled to a 2-5 record. Their lineup should be much better in the second half if the oft mentioned, rarely active WRs Percy Harvin and Roddy White return with avengeance. Marshawn Lynch and Gio Bernard are a solid duo in the backfield, and TE Tony Gonzalez is a steady presence, but as it has been all year, it is up to Atlanta to make something of its Receiving Corps if it is going to write itself a Cinderella story.

Pawnee PJers 5/10
RB 1/4
WR 3/5
TE 1/1
No team has done more with less than the PJers, who have taken castoffs and turned them into contenders; But it is tough to capture lightning in a bottle every week, and with half of the skill players on the roster mere role players, Pawnee is struggling to find a consistent touch. Perhaps RB David Wilson might be bundled with another RB3 (McGahee or Hillis) for a RB2 to complement Alfred Morris. If Harry Douglas can sustain the role he inherited last week, and play complement to Victor Cruz and TE Julian Thomas, the Joneses could be keeping up with the playoff pace.

Bristol Executioners 5/9
RB 2/4
WR 3/4
TE 0/1
The Executioners have been up and down this season- a big part of their down has been their QB Tom Brady, but we're not talking about quarterbacks. A big part of their up has been Jamaal Charles, who might be the LFL's most valuable player at this point in the season. Unfortunately, his prowess has not rubbed off on his comrades; Larry Fitzgerald and Marques Colston have underachieved severely, while DeMarco Murray went and got himself (shocker!) hurt. Mike James and Danny Amendola are the reinforcements, and through rose colored glasses, the assembled lineup has championship potential. At 2-5, they need to kick it into high gear right away, because the other pieces are not going to fit the bill; PS. There is no legitimate and healthy TE on this team right now.

No comments:

Post a Comment