Thursday, December 14, 2017

IX Preview: Semifinals

We're down to four teams left in contention, three of whom have never progressed beyond this stage. Savannah lost here in 2014, Deputy in 2013, and HCM City in 2010. At least one of those squads will break through to a Larkspur Bowl Final. Meanwhile, Phoenix has been here in each of the past seven years, progressing to the final five times and winning three times.

With kickoff tonight, lets prognosticate these matchups a little bit:

QUARTERBACK
DVH: The Van Halens made a midseason switch at QB, removing Phil Rivers and replacing him with Jared Goff. While Goff has been mostly good to great, they might have been better off sticking with the tried and true option who hooked on with Hill Valley instead. Goff has a tough matchup this week. 
HCM: Dak Prescott answered the call in the first round of the playoffs, and should have an opportunity to pillage once again. He was bad through most of November but there's no reason to doubt that against lesser adversity (and as the key to the offense) he should prove superb.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

WIDE RECEIVER
DVH: Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin, Michael Crabtree, and Marqise Lee are a solid grouping that has substantial floor. Tough matchups for the first two shouldn't be too troublesome as they'e basically matchup proof, but neither should be counted on to gamebreak. Terrance Williams has shown a propensity for big games in the past but is hardly a sure thing- not a guy to game plan for.
HCM: Malcolm Mitchell is not coming through that door. The injured wideout has been stashed on the Lead Farmer bench since being selected 281st in the draft, but is highly unlikely to suit up this year. That leaves Tyreek Hill, Golden Tate, Desean Jackson, and Danny Amendola to line up wide- all four are undersized playmakers, capable of underneath volume or big play TDs, but unlikely to dominate the red zone.
ADVANTAGE: DEPUTY

RUNNING BACK
DVH: It all comes down to this week on the Zeke Elliot gamble- the running back is set to return next week, but if the Van Halens aren't in the big game it will be a bust. Carlos Hyde should do Carlos Hyde things and prove valuable regardless of matchup; Mike Davis (if healthy) might get the call over steward Alfred Morris. Matt Breida and Damien Williams are depth pieces unlikely to start without a dramatic change in context. 
HCM: Le'Veon Bell is the best running back going this week and most weeks. Lamar Miller has been a very good complimentary piece, handling consistent weekly volume. He's questionable this week- sophomore Peyton Barber could be a nice upside play in his stead, while Buck Allen offers another decent option.
ADVANTAGE: TOSS-UP!

TIGHT END
DVH: Jack Doyle is not elite option, but he's done yeomans' work this season and has a plus matchup in this one. He'll go tonight and could dictate a lot about the later stages of this game. A big day from Doyle might make HCM take more risks- a quiet night at the office might press Deputy to look into doing the same.
HCM: Getting the Gronk back after setting a point record last week is a scary proposition; he's simply the best at the position whenever he's healthy enough to take the field. Erstwhile veteran Jason Witten backs him up and even at his advanced age is a dependable red zone option and credible flex. 
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

DEFENSIVE LINE
DVH: Jadeveon Clowney arrived in the NFL with immense hype, but injuries and ineffectiveness dampened his stature. This year he has delivered on all of that and more, ranking as the #2 defensive linemen in the game to date. Deputy is built around Clowney's ascendance and will rely on him to deliver again. 
HCM: Melvin Ingram has been a disruptive presence for HCM this year but has not registered a full sack since October 22nd. With a plum matchup this could be a great chance to return to form for the hybrid backer.
ADVANTAGE: DEPUTY

LINEBACKERS
DVH: CJ Mosley captains the defense and is one of the elite group of 'can't miss' LB1s that can change a game. KJ Wright had been approaching that form, but a concussion last week dims his light and should be a major concern for the league's #1 seed. Craig Robertson's lunch-pail is filled with meat and potatoes who is stepping into an every down role.
HCM: Alec Ogletree remains a LB1, shrugging off an injury scare to put up double digits for an eleventh straight week; Wesley Woodyard and Christian Kirksey were good last week and in good positions to be good again, while Terrell Suggs has notched at least half a sack in five straight and has score 10 or more points every turn for a month. Simply put, this is an underrated group that should not be slept on.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

SECONDARY
DVH: Kevin Byard's magical mid season run has dried up some, as he has scored single digits in three of the past four. TJ McDonald has been a great asset since being activated, while Trevor Williams and Ryan Smith have been steady (though somewhat underwhelming) contributors. Trae Waynes is on the bench as a third option, but nobody has an exploitable matchup. 
HCM: Sean Davis was the hero last week and is in a good spot to rack up tackles. Malcolm Jenkins should be in a good spot to try to make a big play in centerfield. The corners (Damarious Randall, Kyle Fuller, and a gimpy Malcolm Butler) are all in nice spots to score... Fuller especially has been on a nice run with all indications that it should continue.
ADVANTAGE: HCM CITY

QUARTERBACK
PHX: Assuming no setbacks in practice this week, Aaron Rodgers should relieve Kirk Cousins behind center this week. Obviously Rodgers is one of the league's best, but the spot is suboptimal. Even discounting the potential for an early recurrence of his injury ending his day early, Rodgers hasn't played in over two months and has no gimme matchup here.
SAV: Alex Smith plummeted back to earth last week, and while he has a healthy floor, game flow has really dictated his week to week production, with his role being that of 'game manager' in three of the last four. A very tough matchup would indicate that is the most likely outcome again this week.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

WIDE RECEIVER
PHX: Josh Gordon's return has coincided with a two game swoon from Brandin Cooks; Dez Bryant has put together five good games and three subpar games in the past two months, but the big three is still one of the league's better trios. Having dealt Alshon Jeffery to their opponent the team's flex is a rotation between an injured Amari Cooper, a flagging Devante Parker, and upstart Dede Westbrook.
SAV: Adding Alshon Jeffery on October 24th changes the Pete's trajectory, as he has combined with Julio Jones to be the best one-two punch in the league since. Considering that all three players the Petes scored in that trade started last week, while none of the Uprising's acquisitions are projected to, the trade's winner is obvious. Robert Woods is expected to return, and if he can go right back to the level of production he was at for a month pre-injury, that's huge. But it's an if. So are Tyrell Williams and Jaron Brown. Mike Wallace- if healthy, is the safest route at fourth WR.
ADVANTAGE: TOSS-UP!

RUNNING BACK
PHX: Kenyan Drake has been a bonafide workhorse in back to back weeks, Samaje Perine in four straight weeks, and Jamaal Williams has done it for five straight. Drake has a superb matchup and should be a key to the Uprising's gameplan; The other two have less stellar outlooks, so who gets the call figures to figure into the score. Adrian Peterson is questionable with a neck injury, and had been a veritable coin flip when healthy.
SAV: After riding veteran Frank Gore in the snow last week, the Petes appear primed to play the matchups and partner rookie catalyst Christian McCaffrey with silver hammer LeGarrette Blount in this one. Joe Mixon is questionable coming off a concussion and Gore is as always, still ready and willing. 
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

TIGHT END
PHX: Jimmy Graham's run of ten straight productive outings came to an end last week during the bye; Fortuitous timing, but also not exactly confidence building. Ricky Seals-Jones is merely insurance, a lottery ticket in case Graham succumbs to ever present injuries.
SAV: The black hole in the lineup actually has Eric Ebron coming off a dominant ten catch performance, doubling up his second best showing this year. With Austin Sefarian-Jenkins having been quiet for a month, Ebron should get a chance to finally be a difference maker in a big spot. 
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

DEFENSIVE LINE
PHX: Khalil Mack has been just fine this year, ranking as the #4 defensive lineman on the year, and has buried a sack in four straight games. Still, he has not dominated like he did in each of the previous two years. A couple huge performances at the end would justify his high draft cost- he was selected in the fifth round.
SAV: Aaron Donald has been a top five option at the position for two years running, but the fourth year tackle held out through the off-season and fell to the seventeenth round where he has proven a great value in the late season. He has a salivating matchup this week. 
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH

LINEBACKERS
PHX: With Ryan Shazier's career threatening injury, a position of strength has become something of a question mark. NaVorro Bowman and a freshly healthy Deone Bucannon are joined by journeymen Preston Brown and Vince Williams. The floor is solid, but the upside of the unit might lack ambition. 
SAV: Luke Kuechly is the best linebacker in this game, and Von Miller has the most disruptive upside. Tahir Whitehead and Bernardrick McKinney have been solid fillers at the third spot and the numbers says McKinney has the more advantageous situation this time around.
ADVANTAGE: SAVANNAH

SECONDARY
PHX: Reshad Jones and Keanu Neal form perhaps the leagues most daunting back line: Neal has a great matchup, as does well rested Marcus Peters at cornerback. At the other corner, Jalen Ramsey has a five week streak of double digit point production- teams have no choice but to try him.
SAV: Harrison Smith and Tyrann Mathieu are also in the running for best safety tandem, but Smith's production has dwindled recently. Big Play Slay came through last week, but neither he or Casey Hayward have matchups ripe for the picking.
ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

FIFTH PLACE GAME:


New York and Binghamton are both disappointed with their early exits, but need to go right back to work- the winner of this game will draft ninth in the 2018 draft, the loser will pick tenth.

CONSOLATION BRACKET MATCHUPS:



Next week the winners will pay for the top two draft picks next season, while the losers will duel for the third and fourth pick in said draft. Next season starts now for all four of these franchises.

ELEVENTH PLACE GAME:


The winner will have the fifth pick in 2018's player entry draft; the loser will pick sixth.

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