#5 HILL VALLEY (7-6) vs #1 SOUTH PARK (9-4)
Head to Head: The Cows defeated the McFlys way back in week two, 232-223, a tight game where Todd Gurley was ultimately the difference maker. That victory gave South Park a 3-2 edge in their five seasons together. This is the first time the teams have ever made the playoffs in the same year.
Injury Report: The McFlys survived a week without James Conner but may be without their workhorse again this week; he is officially tabbed as questionable. Meanwhile TY Hilton's heroics played a major part in the quarterfinal victory but may have come at a price, as he too has the Q DNP on Wednesday. Courtland Sutton was limited today; he's been disappointing since his role was elevated, but the team lacks any sort of decent flex depth. Budda Baker is questionable again, but played last week with the same injury. In South Park the team comes out of the bye mostly intact; Kerryon Johnson's knee injury lingers, but he was already listed behind Gurley and Lamar Miller, and perhaps Derrick Henry following his breakout. Kareem Jackson has a Q tag but is likely to suit up, while Josh Doctson is concussed but was not expected to be in the active lineup ANYWAY.
Recency Bias: If they had played last week the Cows would have won 233-206. Going back further, the teams would have alternated results over the past six weeks. The Cows have only scored below 200 points once all season, while the McFlys dipped under three times in fourteen weeks. Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.
X-Factors: Larry Fitzgerald is no spring chicken, but he's still capable of big plays. If he can come turn back the clock and be his WR1 self, the Cows will be tough to beat. Meanwhile, the McFlys Aaron Donald was held in check last week, the first time that has happened since the season's first half: Hill Valley is counting on their disruptor-in-chief to be a difference maker again.
#3 PAWNEE (8-5) vs #2 PHOENIX (9-4)
Head to Head: Pawnee defeated Phoenix in week ten this season, pushing their All-Time series to 7-5. With a win here, the Pride could equalize the playoff showdowns at two apiece, while drawing within one overall. After dropping their first ever matchup the Uprising reeled off five straight wins before reversing to lose four of six.
Injury Report: After losing team captain AJ Green for the playoffs, the Uprising are dealing with several notable injuries this week: Would-be starters Spencer Ware and Jordan Reed are doubtful, and the rest of the team's depth is questionable: Allen Robinson, Doug Baldwin, Davante Parker and Kenyan Drake all question marks. Cornerback Xavien Howard leads the league with seven picks, but is not certain to play this week either. For Pawnee Julio Jones is the only questionable on the blotter- the all-world wideout played with the same designation last week and dominated, and is expected to lace them up again for the semis.
Recency Bias: The Pride would have won 263-238 last week, and are on such a roll: Over the past five weeks the Pride would be 67-3 against all opponents, an almost unbelievable total over such a stretch. With three first round picks and the top TE in the league, anything but a championship will be underachieving.
X-Factors: If the Uprising are going to win they will need their defense to make up the skill gap on offense. Bobby Wagner and the defense better have some defensive touchdowns ready! For Pawnee they just need to hope none of their players suffers an early injury- the floor is sky high with this squad.
LARKSPUR BOWL XI DRAFT SELECTION BOWL
Down below, the middle of 2019's pecking order will be established- we've got four teams jostling for the top four draft picks; Based on 2018's current scoring (and the precedent that quarterbacks and IDPs are generally not picked in the first round) the first four picks would be Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliot, who along with Alvin Kamara, are all over 300 points for the year already.
And finally, some placement games. These teams will see their final action of 2018 in week fifteen, settling into their draft slot a week early. All four teams had disappointing ends to their years, but each has an opportunity to go out on a high note, (and secure better draft slotting) with a victory here. The victor of Orgrimmar vs Binghamton will have ninth selection and the loser tenth. Meanwhile, the victor of Manitoba vs Deputy will have fifth selection and the loser sixth.
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