#6 BINGHAMTON(7-6) at #3 PAWNEE (8-5)
Head to Head: The Pride put down the Snipers 240-207 in week 11 this season, staking a lead and holding it despite a solid effort from Binghamton. The Pride are 2-0 all time in the series, having dropped the Snipers 249-186 in the latter's first ever Larkspur Bowl game, week one 2017.
Injury Report: Each team lost a starter in the season finale, with PAW WR Christian Kirk going down for Pawnee and BIN TE Greg Olsen re-injuring his foot. Pride RB Chris Carson has a dislocated finger but is expected to be active; With Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb both at full power, Carson is unlikely to see touches. Likewise, Trey Quinn's rendition of the Scarn will likely be relegated to the sideline- his ankle injury makes him an unlikely play for Pawnee.
Recency Bias: Both teams are coming off superlative efforts, with the Pride scoring 238 and the Snipers 230 in week thirteen. The Pride have won four in a row, the longest active streak in the league, and have scored between 238 and 250 in each of those victories. The Snipers facing long playoff odds and with their backs to the wall, won two in a row against #7 Savannah and top seed South Park to clinch.
X-Factors: Both teams are built similarly, though the Pride's high end weapons (Barkley, Julio, Brown, Chubb, Kelce) are a matchup nightmare for any team- Mixon, Hopkins, Sanders, Coleman, and Cook are at least a notch or two below them. Neither squad has special third receivers or flex options. If the Snipers play Jameis Winston over starter Jared Goff, they're going boom or bust at the most important position in the game- it's a ballsy gambit, and we'll see if that pays off. Binghamton will likely need a monster defensive performance to dwarf Pawnee's floor; That's why they play the games!
#5 HILL VALLEY (7-6) at #4 ORGRIMMAR (8-5)
Head to Head: The Horde outlasted the McFlys back in week 7, 239-232 despite having premier running back Zeke Elliot on bye. The victory pushed their advantage in the rivalry to 6-2, with the Horde winning both previous playoff games, eliminating the McFlys in LBI and LBIII. The teams have split a pair of classics by less than two points: Orgrimmar winning 133.96-132.44 in 2009 and Hill Valley winning 177.56-176.66 in 2011.
Injury Report: The James Conner ankle sprain looms large over the matchup, as not only does he leave a major hole in the McFly engine, his presumptive replacement Jaylen Samuels joins the Horde via waivers, and, most interestingly, Samuels is TE eligible after entering the combine as an H-Back. Orgrimmar's QB Cam Newton is questionable but expected to play; Marquise Goodwin is expected to return from a personal matter and may be an interesting play in this matchup.
Recency Bias: Both teams ended the season on a sour note, the McFlys losing to Pawnee and Orgrimmar losing their claim on a first round bye in a loss to New York. The McFlys scored a palatable 220, but have run hot and cold in the last month of the season, alternating between big scores and more modest output. The Horde have scored 200+ in seven of the last eight and four in a row. They've only dipped below 200 three times all year.
X-Factors: Jaylen Samuels could end up being the X-Factor of the playoffs if he can deliver bellcow totals from a TE position. Hill Valley holds an edge in the receiving corps but Orgrimmar can count on surer running backs, and should be superior in the TE and flex slots. Aaron Rodgers vs Cam Newton is sure to have some fireworks in store. Will Lutz has been a vital part of Orgrimmar's stability; So too is their linebacking unit. Aaron Donald has really gotten going after a slow start, looking like a potential MVP candidate on the front line for Hill Valley.
LARKSPUR BOWL XI DRAFT SELECTION BOWL
In the contest for draft capital, #7 Savannah and #8 HCM City have byes to the final four. Each was a final four participant in the big bracket last year, so suffice to say 2018 was a disappointment; With top draft picks available to them each team will look to bounce back next year. #9 Deputy and #11 New York both tumbled out of the big dance this season as well; They'll need to perform over the next three weeks to determine their draft slot. Each team has headed in opposite directions late in the season, the Van Halens free falling out of the playoff picture while the Finest played their best ball of the season. The #10 Moosecrew improve on their last place finish in 2017... but by how much? TBD. The #12 Killa Beez are just happy to be here, while the Grabbers and Rum Ham are already gone.
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