LARKSPUR BOWL BRACKET:
#1 Hill Valley McFlys vs #4 HCM Lead Farmers
All-Time: 9-2 McFlys advantage; Have never met in playoffs
Last Time: Week 7 - HVM 283.41 over HCM 150.32
QB: HVM Aaron Rodgers has not put up large point totals on a weekly basis, but should be the far more stable pick than whomever gambling Lead Farmers trot out... but, any given Sunday applies
RB: HCM's McCaffrey/Aaron Jones combination is the league's best, and while Dalvin Cook is a stud, there's too much uncertainty around Leveon Bell to feel confident in this matchup
WR: HVM's upside takes a hit with Marvin Jnes hitting IR but Godwin/Beckham/Robinson has a high floor. HCM's Golladay & Diggs match, while Anderson has been hot- veritable push.
TE/FX: HCM's Greg Olsen has a decent floor, while HVM's TE David Njoku is all upside. Meanwhile, Allen Hurns and Breshad Perriman are both dart throws at best, guys filling in for superior players late in the season.
DEF: HCM is led by Joe Schobert and the team has stuck with most of their guys, with only Bud Dupree and Antoine Bethea new adds. Meanwhile, HVM added the top DL in the league Danielle Hunter a few weeks ago, putting him in front of two elite safeties, Vonn Bell and Landon Collins. The rest of the McFly D has been a rotation, mostly to great effect.
K: HCM's Matt Prater has nailed 10 of 14 from beyond 40 scoring high upside, with McFly kicker Austin Seibert just 7 for 10. However, Seibert is 9 for 9 from the 30s, while Prater is a mere 2 for 3, giving the McFly a safe floor.
#2 Pawnee Pride vs #3 New York's Finest
All-Time: 5-5 Split Regular Season Series; Have never met in playoffs
Last Time: Week 3 - NYF 199.38 over PAW 179.50
QB: If NYF's MVP Lamar Jackson cannot go, they loser their greatest advantage, as the team has indicated they may turn to Eli Manning in his stead. Meanwhile, PAW's Drew Brees showed he can still sling with the best of them- he goes Monday night, perhaps with the game on the line.
RB: NYF has a pair of monsters that have been tagged with 'load management' at various times this season. Hasn't mattered lately, with Todd Gurley scoring 20+ in 3 of four, and Derrick Henry scoring 25+ in 5 of 5. Meanwhile, injuries have seen Josh Jacobs on the shelf and Marlon Mack just returning for Pawnee. They may end up starting big play specialist Austin Ekeler and... some other guy.
WR: PAW WR Michael Thomas is a bankable asset- the only one in this game now that teammate Mike Evans is doubtful and Adam Thielen injured and without meaningful play since his week 7 injury. DK Metcalf has seen his usage bounce around week to week, while Golden Tate has seen his looks dwindle recently. Meanwhile New York wideouts Tyler Boyd and Mike Williams are both on the upswing.
TE/FX: Both teams feature high end positions at a position mostly bereft of them; George Kittle has justified his second round pick, while Dante Waller has been a massive profit out of the 20th round. In the flex both Deebo Samuel and Tyler Higbee have emerged as consistent threats in the late season.
DEF: The Pawnee defense keys on big plays, a boom/bust unit that will be essential to the team's final results. Meanwhile, New York has more tackle to their portfolio, with pass rusher Harold Landy and pick artist Marcus Peters notable exceptions.
K: New York's Matt Gay holds the edge, with Pawnee turning to veteran Robbie Gould in a big spot.
5TH PLACE GAME:
#5 South Park Cows vs #6 Ohio Tommy Boys
All-Time: (Ohio's inaugural season)
Last Time: Week 3 - OTB 232.89 over SPC 232.29
QB: Ohio's refusal to move one of their twin ace QBs may have been their downfall, While South Park supplemented Carson Wentz with streamers during lean weeks.
RB: Ohio's Chubb/Mixon get the nod, even with James Conner likely to return to action for the Cows.
WR: TY Hilton looks prepared to return now that it's too late to matter much. He'll join a hobbled (but recently effective) Amari Cooper and Diontae Johnson (coming off his best volume of the year) for the Boys. South Park lacks starpower, but Tyler Lockett, Michael Gallup, and Robert Woods have been solid contributors this year- though Lockett's last month really brought down his numbers.
TE/FX: South Park's jumbo package of Travis Kelce and Austin Hooper has been exquisite. Vance McDonald and Danny Amendola for Ohio is... not exquisite.
DEF: South Park has traditionally optimized their defense and looks to have done so again down the stretch. Ohio has not changed much- seven players will end up playing ten games for them this year. Not a bad thing, as they remain a solid unit.
K: Harrison Butker is tops in the league, soundly outkicking the perfunctory Dan Bailey.
CONSOLATION BRACKET:
#7 Phoenix Uprising vs #11 Savannah Petes
All-Time: 9-2 Uprising Advantage (8 game win streak); PHX 2-0 in playoffs
Last Time: Week 10 - PHX 242.11 over SAV 194.28
QB: Old guard Tom Brady looks to faceoff with former understudy Jimmy G. Brady has looked old lately, while Kyler Murray will likely wait in the wings for Phoenix.
RB: Leonard Fournette has quietly been one of the league's steadiest contributors for SAV, but Alvin Kamara's midseason injury (and lack of end zone visits) helped derail their season. Meanwhile, the carousel in Phoenix ended up featuring Mark Ingram far more than first round picks Saquon Barkley and David Johnson.
WR: Savannah's trio of Sanders, Kupp, and Allen are healthy and productive. Phoenix's trio of Jarvis, DeVante, and Julio are all questionable. (So is AJ Green, LOL.)
TE/FX: Phoenix TE Hunter Henry has been steady down the stretch- Jack Doyle has not been, but he did sign a contract extension that indicates he's part of the plan.
DEF: Both squads boast productive defenses, but Savannah will have to look at the scrap heap for a new safety following DJ Swearinger's release.
K: Both Greg the Leg and Ka'imi have swooned in the second half of the season. Also, Greg and Leg do not rhyme when pronounced.
#8 Jersey Sanitation Crew vs #9 Carmel Rudy-Toos
All-Time: (Both team's inaugural season)
Last Time: Week 3 - JSC 253.21 over CRT 225.64
QB: Journeyman Derek Carr rotates in for Carmel this week, but in Jersey Kirk Cousins has been stellar since the calendar flipped to October.
RB: Since hitting his groove in week eight, Melvin Gordon has been a workhorse for Jersey, though he's not quite Zeke Elliots equal. Devin Singletary and Sony Michel are role players capable of stealing the spotlight.
WR: Carmel acquired Courtland Sutton at the right time- he's far more exciting than role players Fitzgerald and Sanu. On the other side, DJ Moore has blossomed, but Randall Cobb has settled in as a dependable role player, while Keke Coutee has a funny name.
TE/FX: Zach Ertz and Jason Witten are productive tight ends in Carmel. Irv Smith is a role player at best, while injuries and ineffectiveness have rendered Sammy Watkins a non-factor since week ones explosion.
DEF: Jamie Collins was a star in Carmel the first half of the season, but cooled considerably since, while his teammates Bosa and Watt are very good, they are arguably the lesser of each sibling group. Jersey's Marlon Humphery is the rare shutdown cornerback that also tracks on the stat sheet.
K: Both Jason Myers and Zane Gonzalez have had their moments stringng together double digit weeks, but neither are truly dependable kickers.
11TH PLACE GAME:
#10 Binghamton Snipers vs #12 Mar-A-Lago Grabbers
All-Time: 3-0 Snipers Advantage
Last Time: Week 7 - BIN 191.11 over MAL 112.52
QB: Pat Mahomes over Ryan Tannehill, yes! But not by as much as you would think.
RB: Chris Carson is a RB1, while Carlos Hyde and Philip Lindsay are rock solid RB2s. Um, advantage Binghamton, because Latavius is a handcuff and Tevin Coleman is the cold hand in a hot hand committee.
WR: Davante Adams and Juju Smith-Schuster both disappointed this year, with injuries playing a role, leaving Curtis Samuels left to play every week, rather than slotting in at the flex where he belongs. The Grabber contingent features hard to trust breakout Darius Slayton, concussion prone Sterling Shepard, and miraculously healthy and productive John Brown... coming of his worst game of the season.
TE/FX: Jacob Hollister exploded on the scene before retreating back to a decent volume, TD dependent contingency. Dallas Goedert and Jonnu Smith are a pair of backups that have inherited some additional volume. James Washington has been a real good waiver claim in the back nine.
DEF: Standout CB Kenny Moore missed last week and is questionable this week for the Snipers. DeVondre Campbel has scored double digits in four of five since the bye, but is out of practice today.
K: Justin Tucker is better than Chris Boswell.
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