All four are who we thought they were: Real good football teams with palpable chances for glory.
That leaves four teams squabbling for the remaining two spots. South Park and Jersey effectively control their own fates, with a win each is into the dance. However, if one team wins and the other loses, the loser will be eliminated; With Carmel and Ohio set to face each other, the winner is assured to finish at 7-6 and would nab the final spot in that scenario. Meanwhile, due to the points race, if South Park and New Jersey both win, both Carmel and Ohio will still head to consolation bracket. The loser of Carmel vs Ohio is Consolation bracket bound regardless, and could even tumble far enough to miss a first round bye in that tournament!
A losing team has never made it to the Larkspur Bowl playoffs, but if South Park and New Jersey both lose this week it will happen. South Park holds a substantial edge should each team plunge under .500, and there's also a miracle path for a 5-7 team launching up to the six seed, though it would require pitiful losses by South Park and New Jersey along with a monumental win by either Savannah or Phoenix. With the current point totals, the margin each of those teams would need to overcome to supplant South Park as the 6th seed:
- SAVANNAH: win & outscore SPC by 124.94 (while also outscoring JSC)
- PHOENIX: win & outscore SPC by 145.34 (while also outscoring JSC and SAV)
Suffice to say, there's less than a 1% chance of either of those situations coming to pass; Both teams lost a pair of very close games this year, with Savannah falling by 8 points to South Park and 12 points to Philly, and Phoenix losing by 4 points to Pawnee and 9 points to Carmel. If any of those matchups had gone the other way, the ramifications on the playoff picture would be dramatic- however, this is the reality we're in and Spiderman is dead. The other 5-7 team, Binghamton, would need to erase a 280 point margin on South Park, which could not be done by taking the highest score in Larkspur Bowl History and comparing it to the lowest score in history, which gives them a 0% chance of making the playoffs in any reality.
After that, we've got the 4-8 teams at risk of possible relegation. Mar-A-Lago, Deputy, and South Philadelphia. For Mar-A-Lago and Deputy, a win should effectively grant them stay. However, a loss and a South Philly win could put them on the train to B-Town, where the Manitoba Moosecrew are currently enjoying a healthy lead on the competition. Should the B-Division winner choose to return to the A-League the 14th seed will be relegated, barring another manager stepping down, or a decision to expand in 2020. All that will be decided in the offseason- for now: Just win, baby.
It should be noted that there is still one week 12 result up in the air that could shake up the bottom of the standings- Savannah edged out Deputy by 4 points, pending stat corrections. If that changes, Savannah drops a tier to the 'win or else' category, while Deputy joins Binghamton in the 'safely out of the basement but with not even a percentage point of a chance at the playoffs' category.
Week 12 Matchups
WEEK 12 POWER RANKINGS:
- HVM 244: Hail to the chief! Defending champs confirm top seed
- HCM 239: Lead Farmers get back on track in penultimate showing
- NYF 223: Lamar Jackson leads the league's hottest squad, W4
- PHX 220: Gonna come up short of making ten playoffs in a row
- SPC 206: Team has overcome adversity w/ consistency: 190+ in 11 of 12
- PAW 202: Team will have to take Pride in just being #2... for now
- SAV 197: Finally end losing streak, but squandered promising start
- JSC 195: New team with best playoff chance despite losing 5 in a row
- DVH 194: A stat correction would take a lot of pressure off
- BIN 166: After two 7-6 playoff runs, team will miss in year three
- MAL 166: The Grabbers up and down year is down once again
- CRT 154: The team could back into a playoff spot but needed points
- OTB 153: Poor roster management throughout may cost them postseason
- PRH 145: Rum Ham will need help to stay off chopping block for 2020
WEEK 12 ALL-STAR TEAM:
- QB Lamar Jackson NYF (37.06)
- RB Leonard Fournette SAV (35.50)
- WR Chris Godwin HVM (39.70)
- TE George Kittle PAW (26.10)
- DL Yannick Ngakoue HCM (14.90)
- LB Joe Schobert HCM (29.70)
- CB Tre Flowers OTB (24.50)
- SS Eric Reid SPC (24.50)
- K Younghoe Koo PRH (11.50)
- MANITOBA MOOSECREW 3080.24 (+245.26)
- NITTANY LIONS 2723.20 (+234.08)
- BREWTANG KILLA BEEZ 2696.21 (+118.23)
- TORONTO LES TRES PETITES 2555.37 (+222.72)
