The Larkspur Bowl: XI: Week Twelve Recap

No one has joined Hill Valley and Pawnee at the mathematically clinched table (both teams have now secured first round byes, with HVM nabbing the top overall seed) but New York and HCM City are both effectively moving onward, with insurmountable margins between them and the seven seed. Hill Valley and Pawnee met in last year's Larkspur Bowl, while New York and HCM City were both in the playoffs just two years ago, so none of these are real Cinderella stories- all four have been to at least one Larkspur Bowl, with Hill Valley winning twice and losing twice, New York winning once and losing once, Pawnee losing twice, and HCM losing once.

All four are who we thought they were: Real good football teams with palpable chances for glory.

That leaves four teams squabbling for the remaining two spots. South Park and Jersey effectively control their own fates, with a win each is into the dance. However, if one team wins and the other loses, the loser will be eliminated; With Carmel and Ohio set to face each other, the winner is assured to finish at 7-6 and would nab the final spot in that scenario. Meanwhile, due to the points race, if South Park and New Jersey both win, both Carmel and Ohio will still head to consolation bracket. The loser of Carmel vs Ohio is Consolation bracket bound regardless, and could even tumble far enough to miss a first round bye in that tournament!

A losing team has never made it to the Larkspur Bowl playoffs, but if South Park and New Jersey both lose this week it will happen. South Park holds a substantial edge should each team plunge under .500, and there's also a miracle path for a 5-7 team launching up to the six seed, though it would require pitiful losses by South Park and New Jersey along with a monumental win by either Savannah or Phoenix. With the current point totals, the margin each of those teams would need to overcome to supplant South Park as the 6th seed:

SAVANNAH: win & outscore SPC by 124.94 (while also outscoring JSC)
PHOENIX: win & outscore SPC by 145.34 (while also outscoring JSC and SAV)

Suffice to say, there's less than a 1% chance of either of those situations coming to pass; Both teams lost a pair of very close games this year, with Savannah falling by 8 points to South Park and 12 points to Philly, and Phoenix losing by 4 points to Pawnee and 9 points to Carmel. If any of those matchups had gone the other way, the ramifications on the playoff picture would be dramatic- however, this is the reality we're in and Spiderman is dead. The other 5-7 team, Binghamton, would need to erase a 280 point margin on South Park, which could not be done by taking the highest score in Larkspur Bowl History and comparing it to the lowest score in history, which gives them a 0% chance of making the playoffs in any reality.

After that, we've got the 4-8 teams at risk of possible relegation. Mar-A-Lago, Deputy, and South Philadelphia. For Mar-A-Lago and Deputy, a win should effectively grant them stay. However, a loss and a South Philly win could put them on the train to B-Town, where the Manitoba Moosecrew are currently enjoying a healthy lead on the competition. Should the B-Division winner choose to return to the A-League the 14th seed will be relegated, barring another manager stepping down, or a decision to expand in 2020. All that will be decided in the offseason- for now: Just win, baby.

It should be noted that there is still one week 12 result up in the air that could shake up the bottom of the standings- Savannah edged out Deputy by 4 points, pending stat corrections. If that changes, Savannah drops a tier to the 'win or else' category, while Deputy joins Binghamton in the 'safely out of the basement but with not even a percentage point of a chance at the playoffs' category.