Thursday, October 17, 2019

Trade 9: Setting the WR1 Market

A major deal comes down the pipe between an old trade magnate and a burgeoning one- Pawnee and Jersey link up for an exchange.

JERSEY ACQUIRES: WR ALSHON JEFFERY & RB DEVONTA FREEMAN
PAWNEE ACQUIRES: WR MIKE EVANS

Evans and Freeman were both second round picks, selected back to back (Evans 22nd overall and Freeman 23rd overall by Carmel, who then swapped him for 10th round pick Courtland Sutton) meaning that at first glance, Freeman's stock has fallen to include Alshon Jeffery in the deal. However, after a slow start, Freeman has increased his production every week, showcasing the RB1 ceiling he was drafted for in his lone appearance with the Pride. So that first glance can mostly be discarded... LETS TAKE ANOTHER GLANCE.


Instead it looks like this deal is more about the scarcity of high end WRs when compared to the relative wealth of healthy and productive running backs to date, and what they cost to acquire.

Mike Evans has had a pair of duds, a pair of high end performances, an adequate performance, and a truly monster game to start the season. While Pawnee would likely prefer to get less variance week to week, they know they're getting a game changer at the position, as he's worn their colors in recent seasons, and is set to don the blue and red again. While Devonta Freeman and Alshon Jeffery are probably more accurately slotted in the second tier at their positions, Evans has a healthy track record of being top grade year after year. It's putting all the eggs in one basket- but a really sturdy basket, as Evans has played in at least 15 games in all five of his seasons to date.

While Pawnee's rich RB depth (Marlon Mack and Josh Jacobs starting, with Devin Singletary as solid weekly play and Austin Ekeler still looming) made Freeman fungible, there's an argument to be made that Jersey is buying low on Alshon; An early season injury kept him out of a pair of games, but he's scored double digits in three of four appearances, with twenty pointers bookending his season to date. If Jeffery can perform within 20-30 points of Evans the rest of the way, this acquisition of depth could be a major factor in the Crew contending for a playoff spot in their first ever season; Sony Michel can mix in with acquisitions Melvin Gordon and Dev Freeman giving the team three eminently playable backs and flexibility to play matchups. If Alshon can stay healthy, DJ Moore can keep building on a strong start to his sophomore campaign, Brandin Cooks can bounce back from some underwhelming target numbers, and Sammy Watkins and/or Desean Jackson can recuperate and contribute this deep receiving corps may not even miss Evans at all.

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