Every season starts with a draft; Our league runs twenty three rounds, and last year's analysis showed that typically a team's foundation is built on its first ten picks, with the remaining thirteen picks an assortment of replacement level players, lottery tickets, and kickers.
Those first ten picks will define a team's character. Draft strategies range from team to team and year to year, but in general there's a perception of safety (floor) and upside (ceiling) with every choice. Of course, once the games start, everything you though you knew is thrown to the wind, while the added variable of injuries is bound to bite every squad at some point.
In this blog, we will explore the first five picks by each team. Each would likely have a long leash, so even two months into the season, we're unlikely to have seen very many dropped players in this group. At a later date we will explore the next five (picks six to ten) and then the five after that (picks 11 to 15) and then the late round selections that turned out to be difference makers. I mean, that's the plan at least!
Playershighlighted in
ORANGE have been placed on IR or are otherwise inactive.
Players highlighted in
YELLOW have missed multiple weeks to injury.
Players highlighted in
GREEN have been traded away.
Players highlighted in
PURPLE were unceremoniously dropped.
The McFlys formed a strong receiving corps and drafted a top notch RB1, forming an impressive high octane engine that has held up very well to the rigors of the season thus far. While Jeremy Maclin and Golden Tate have both disappointed somewhat as potential WR1s, they've both had their moments, and remain safe every week starters. A blueprint for drafting the greatest possible value at the most highly sought after positions, they got three absolute studs with their first three picks.
Julio Jones is clearly an unstoppable monster that makes the next four picks look sort of bad by comparison- though it's not really their fault! Injuries have hobbled Jordan Reed and Donte Moncrief during the team's recent three game slide, but both are expected back in week eight. Sammy Watkins is another matter, as a foot injury truncated his season almost immediately; He may be able to return following the trading deadline, but is no sure thing. As such, sturdy Mark Ingram had to be moved out for added depth, bringing in high floor reinforcements Anquan Boldin and Terrance West.
The MooseCrew are a sterling 5-2, though their top five picks don't really tell the tale- Odell Beckham has been a half notch below the cream of the crop WR1s, while Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson have both faced questions about potentially passing their respective primes. All three have remained quality starters nonetheless, just not to the caliber that might have been expected. Thomas Rawls appears to have rushed his recovery and ended up back on the shelf- his timetable is unclear, as is what role he might return to. The Crew have kept him on the team, hoping a late season resurgence might plug their roster's biggest hole. Travis Kelce has been a solid TE, but not the difference maker he was expected to be as a fifth round selection.
David Johnson had something of a short resume before coming fourth off the board, as the first runningback selected. He has justified that choice and then some, outpacing all of his peers with only DeMarco Murray visible in his rearview. Keenan Allen tore his ACL in the season opener, giving veracity to Deputy's "second round jinx." Doug Martin was injured in the second game of the season, hampering what should be one of the league's top RB duos- the Van Halens have to hope that when he eventually returns, he is at 100%, Kelvin Benjamin has looked every bit a top notch WR2, but for his goosegg in week three. Drew Brees has been the second best QB in the league to date, looking good at a fifth round price tag.
HCM's top five picks have all been healthy; Gurley and Hill have been fine, though neither is the best RB on the team at this juncture, as each has slightly under performed relative to their draft slot. Brandin Cooks and TY Hilton have put up points in bunches, though huge performances have come with the occasional quiet game, variance that has contributed to keeping their team low in the standings despite high overall output. John Brown has been a bust as a fifth round pick- an all or nothing burner, he has had one great game, two acceptable games, three duds, and missed a week to injury. He'll need to have some big games in the back half of the season to make good on his selection.
The Petes had an ingloriously bad showing in these rounds last year, and 2016 has not been much kinder; The Gronk wasn't right for the first month of the season, and the team started off 1-3. Since ten he's been the game changer a first round pick needs to be, but is it too late to help a Savannah squad that hasn't sniffed the post season since they moved south from Manhattanville following the 2014 campaign. Allen Robinson has been more of a WR3 than a WR1 to date, playing every week and letting down more often than not. Fat Eddie and Big Deck are both out for the season after five and three games respectively- bad breaks that can help rationalize a bad year. Jonathan Stewart has also been hurt- he needs to come back strong for Savannah to have a chance to salvage this season.
Malibu's top five was bookended by WRs that have underwhelmed: DeAndre Hopkins has been prisoner to a quarterback that cannot give him anything to work with, and Michael Floyd has pressed hard but come up empty more often than not, looking like a fringe flex option with an injury. But for his lofty draft status, he'd be wire fodder. The cream filling on that oreo was a trifecta of RBs- Lamar Miller has done well on volume, but been unable to break the big plays that have been his trademark. CJ Anderson had availed himself reasonably well as a RB2, before an injury that has oscillated between minor and season ending a few times. He'll nurse on the IR until his prognosis clears up. Arian Foster, who attained superstardom with this franchise in 2010, called it a career suddenly last week. That will not be helpful to the team going forward.
Oakwood's last tango with Peterson was disastrous, as was their first tango. They need to stop with this tango bullshit. His torn ACL hasn't been the disaster it could have been, as DeMarco Murray has been a superb RB1, and Jerick McKinnon and now Devontae Booker look to shore up the position adeptly. However, the lack of WR talent is glaring- they traded their top target, Demaryius Thomas (himself struggling to be more than a WR2) for a middling WR3 (Rishard Matthews) and a replacement for a toppled Big Ben. Matt Stafford helps fill that injury void, but nothing can help them bridge the hole they took on with Tyler Eifert as a fifth round pick- a month and a half on the shelf and a meager return are indicative of Oakwood's woebegone 1-6 start.
LTP's draft graded out as the League's best; Their trio of veteran receivers (AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, and Larry Fitzgerald) all showed gusto and savvy. Latavius Murray's uninspired performance and subsequent injury led to a need at RB; The team decided to move Marshall, as Fitzgerald has surpassed him on the depth chart. Their acquisition of Tevin Coleman carried some risk (though they cannot be blamed for his injury in his season debut) but might not have been warranted if the team had done a better job working the wire. Andrew Luck's return to health has also been a return to the highest tier of fantasy QBs- a fine choice in the third round. But we already knew they could draft!
The Islanders have been fortunate in health, and their top pick Ezekiel Elliot has (as a rookie) looked just as explosive and dynamic as advertised. His veteran compliment Matt Forte has had a much more up and down experience on the Island, while WRs Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman have underachieved, lacking the volume and scoring opportunities they need to be viable WR1s. Healthy and with their contexts trending upward, each should be able to up their game in the second half of the season. RI would really like to see the same thing of Khalil Mack, who hasn't been bad- he just hasn't justified a fifth round pick on the year.
What a disaster. JJ Watt has dominated the league at his position for four years, and in the best of those two years, may have justified a first round draft pick. Coming off a litany of off season surgeries, his best was unlikely. The Uprising got one fine game and two quiet games from him before he was lost for the season. In the fifth round, they made another IDP retread to their 2015 campaign, selecting Reshad Jones. For six weeks he was exactly what he was drafted to be. Then he tore a rotator cuff and his season ended. Injuries to your top five picks are always devastating, but IDPs have to be so much better than their peers to justify spending a top pick on, the cripple factor is upped tremendously. They traded Devonta Freeman for Dez Bryant, who had one bad game and two okay games before injuries kept him out for a month; If he can return and pair with Jarvis Landry as WR1s this team has a chance. If Josh Gordon ever returns from suspension/ rehabilitation, he could help them crest at the right time. More likely, the curse of Gordon will hinder another team, another year, where he gobbles up a roster spot for weeks without any production.
New York's first few picks were defaulted upon, so it makes sense that the LBVI champs shipped them out to redefine their roster. Cam Newton went to Hill Valley, while Dez Bryant and a (injured) Carlos Hyde went to Phoenix. In return, they've supplemented underwhelming stars Randall Cobb and Julius Thomas with a credible RB1 in Devonta Freeman, and a slew of high upside question marks. There's some volatility built into this team, and every week will be an adventure getting the optimal lineup on the field, but their transactions have expanded their overall point potential.
Last year's runner up started the draft by selecting the first ever first round linebacker. Of course, he's been superlative. After that, they selected Mike Evans, currently projected as the best WR over the rest of the season by a landslide. Doug Baldwin is a bit hit or miss for a WR1, but he can be an absolute difference maker on any given Sunday. Greg Olsen has been the top TE in the game, piling up the most catches at the position, and chewing up yardage at a ridiculous rate. Jeremy Langford is the closest thing to a misstep here, as his inefficiency and injury have kept him from production, but his story for the season remains unfinished, and the team has been able to address the RB position via carousel masterstroke regardless, starting the year a nearly perfect 6-1.
South Park's pick at the turn was always going to put them a bit behind the 8 ball: Le'Veon Bell was assured to face a three game suspension to start the year, while Jamaal Charles was (yet again) returning from injury. While Charles has been a non factor to date, a later selection Christine Michael, and a trade for Spencer Ware (plus Bell's triumphant return) have kept the position a net gain. Russell Wilson in the third hasn't been a disaster, but he has not returned to the level of production he rose to with Pawnee last year, after being dumped by HCM. Jordan Matthews has been the fourth best WR on this team, struggling to maintain flex appeal. Luckily for the Cows, several of their later picks have been WR1s at great value, so... whatever. Lavonte David has been a fine starter, but not a top linebacker by any means. He had a slow start to 2015 as well, before a rampaging close to his season, so if he follows the same path to the top of the scoreboard, South Park will be just fine with his selection.
