Power Rankings: These numbers represent Yahoo!'s projected optimized lineups with current rosters- they estimate current injuries, and have been modulated by a player's current role and outlook. They're not going to stand up to injury or development, but are an objective (generated by Y!, not me) gauge for currently rostered talent, so we'll use it to check on what appear to be each team's strengths, weaknesses, and X-Factors.
Draft Grade: A+
Strength: Saskatoon boasts high upside and quality depth at every position, with ten of their sixteen starters projected to score over 200 points. With three starting caliber RBs and WRs, their starting lineup is probably the league's most intimidating to start the year.
Weakness: Their top two options at the flex are rookies: Will Fuller and Michael Thomas both have the pedigree to succeed out of the gate, but their opportunities might be limited, and the leash will be short. Past them, Robert Woods and Jordan Cameron are okay depth, but hardly exciting.
X-Factor: QB Matt Ryan was snatched up in the 23rd round to continue to helm the Sasquatch. The team's belief in Matty Ice has been almost unwavering, as this will be his seventh year under center for the franchise. The one year he wasn't? 2010, when Aaron Rodgers led the team to an 8-5 season, their best ever. If Ryan can be an elite quarterback, this team might deliver on this prognostication.
Draft Grade: A
Strength: The WRs are superb, as Brown, Tate, Maclin, and Cooper are all studs. Behind them, blue chip rookie Corey Coleman should be given a chance to develop without being counted on to deliver in the starting lineup right away. The team's fantastic WR situation gives them the flexibility to roster eight credible RBs on their carousel.
Weakness: The TE position is the obvious frailty; Eric Ebron has the tools to be an every week threat, but has been unable to put them together consistently through two years in the league, and his health is always a factor. He doubled his rookie production in year two- the McFlys need a similar jump from him in his third season.
X-Factor: QB Jameis Winston is something of a dice roll on a roster that was carefully selected for its substantial floor, after two years out of the playoffs. Famous Jameis showed flashes of starpower in year one, but will need to take a big step in year two to be a top ten signal caller. He threw eight picks in his last eight games last year- protecting the ball will be a critical sign of growth in 2016.
Draft Grade: B+
Strength: Phoenix had a dominant defense in 2015, and bet on many of the same faces this year, bringing back Watt, Reshad Jones, Telvin Smith, and Vontaze Burfict. Overdrafting IDPs can be a risky proposition, but all four (along with newcomer Kwon Alexander) are expected to score at a 200+ pace.
Weakness: QB Andy Dalton was a safe play through his first four seasons- sixteen games each year, quality numbers, but nothing eye popping: middling TD, INT, and yardage rates, with steady year to year improvement in completion percentage and yards per attempt. He was on the verge of breaking out in 2015, before an injury ended his season in his 13th game. If he is not all the way back to the cusp, he's a mediocrity.
X-Factor: TE Jimmy Graham was an elite TE for four years before changing offenses, a perennial top thirty pick in the Larkspur Bowl draft. But in 2015 his role became muddled and his outlook murky- that was before he suffered a grievous patellar tendon injury that left his career in doubt. If he comes all the way back he might be the steal of the draft; Flip side, he may lack the capability to even play a role.
Draft Grade: B+
Strength: Of the team's sixteen starters, thirteen of them went over 185 points in 2015, (eleven of them over 200) which should give the team a quality base of tried and true options. The safeties, Deone Bucannon and Landon Collins might be the best one two punch of game changers in the league, and their corners Marcus Peters and Trumaine Johnson combined to pick off fifteen balls last time around. A repeat performance will match stability against league wide volatility and give the Lead Farmers a major advantage.
Weakness: Blake Bortles led the league in turnovers last year with 23, undermining his value substantially. While he also delivered a robust 37 total TDs, the weekly variance could mean he hurts as much as he helps. With a ho-hum bench, bye weeks or injuries might have the Lead Farms oscillating with their quarterback's production.
X-Factor: RB Todd Gurley was allowed to come along slow his rookie year to ensure his torn ACL was 100%. Once he got going, he showcased elite skills and production, with six straight dominating performances, ranging from 89-163 total yards. But in the back half of the season, Gurley tapered off a bit, only breaching that level once in the following six games. He will have to sustain this year to justify his high draft slot.
Draft Grade: A
Strength: The WR trio of AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, and Larry Fitzgerald has the most substantial resume of any unit in the league- three bonafide aces, still at or near the top of their game, staying healthy and productive will be the key to Toronto's season. There's not a ton of depth behind them- WR Tavon Austin is a neat gadget player who has slowly matured into a feared playmaker, while Jermaine Kearse is more of a role player- a decent bye week fill in, but not a guy you'd want to rely upon for any duration.
Weakness: LTP eschews the strategy of amassing overwhelming RB depth, instead taking a wait and see approach. Their starters, Latavius Murray and Rashad Jennings are both good options, guys that should get plenty of touches as long as they stay healthy. Behind them, there's versatile Charles Sims, who is efficient with his limited touches, but not a guy with overwhelming value. Behing him there's... no one.
X-Factor: TE Coby Fleener changed offenses and carried a ton of hype into the preseason, but did little in training camp or the preseason to turn critics into believers. He has the chops and the spot to be a major asset on paper, but now he has to go out and do it week after week. Can he? Will he?
Draft Grade: B+
Strength: Keenan Allen and Kelvin Benjamin shuld be a dynamic duo- Benjamin was DVH's second round pick last year, but went down with a torn ACL in the preseason, seriously undercutting the team's attrition. He's already managed to prove he is all the way back, scoring a very healthy 19.6 in the season opener. Tyler Lockett and Rishard Matthews are not as dependable, but both offer upside and should see a starter's diet of targets.
Weakness: David Johnson and Doug Martin might both be 300+ runningbacks this year, which would of course, be incredible. Deputy has got to hope that happens, because that would mean they were both healthy most of the time. They've double down on Johnson insurance with CJ2K and Andre Ellington, but have no obvious contingency should something happen to the Muscle Hamster. That seems like a strategic oversight.
X-Factor: QB Drew Brees and QB Matt Stafford. The Van Halen's yearly foray into the QB market has drawn mixed results, and this year's season could depend on 2016's version of the wager. Drew Brees has been a top fantasy quaterback for over a decade, and there's no reason to suspect he might suddenly stop (a la Peyton Manning 2015) so he's the starter. But Matt Stafford, bereft of Megatron (forever) has done a curious thing this preseason: he's turned into a more accurate thrower, doing more with higher percentage throws and less gunslinging. With a big start, perhaps Brees becomes a significant trade chip.
Draft Grade: C
Strength: The WR depth is ridiculous. While half the league went zero RB, the Islanders spent the mid rounds picking up all of the interesting wideouts they could snag. Top-end options Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman are likely to find their way to the injury report at some point this season, but Emmanuel Sanders, Pierre Garcon, Sterling Shepard and Davante Adams give them four more options they can be comfortable dressing in any given week.
Weakness: Ezekiel Elliot should be close to unstoppable his rookie year- but there has been a pileup of vague allegations buzzing around him that have to, at the very least, make the possibility of a looming suspension worrisome. Batterymate Matt Forte has a sterling reputation, but has a lot of wear on his tires at this point in his career, and is entering a brand new offense. As long as both players remain on the field, they're potent. Behind them are scat back extraordinaire Shane Vereen (who sometimes gets forgotten by his offense) and Forte insurance Bilal Powell. Not world beaters.
X-Factor: DE Khalil Mack went toe to toe with JJ Watt last season for the best at the position. This is significant, because, since Watt burst onto the Larkspur Bowl scene with the Islanders in 2011, he has been in a class of his own at the league's most barren slot. Watt's price tag has swelled to the first round- Mack in the fifth might be grand larceny if he can do it again.
Draft Grade: C+
Strength: Oh my, those linebackers. Lavonte David is right there next to Luke Kuechly in the conversation for best backer in the league, and going four rounds later is a veritable thrift store grab. DeAndre Levy killed Savannah with his 2015 non-season, but healthy he is in the same class of playmaker, and by all accounts, that is what he is. Ryan Shazier is the sort of bigger, faster, stronger wunderkind that swarms to the ball. I didn't mean for this paragraph to get erotic, it just overwhelmed me.
Weakness: The Cows are experts at subverting the projections and upending Yahoo!'s expectations, so their low grade shouldn't be a concern. Likewise, starting a couple of high ceiling platoon backs in Christine Michael and DeAndre Washington isn't a big deal when ostensibly, Jamaal Charles and Le'veon Bell will be inducing bowel movements on the other sideline by October. What may be a concern is the lack of elite WR talent for the notoriously non-trading South Park squad; Marvin Jones, Michael Crabtree, and Vincent Jackson are all nice reliable veterans and value picks, but all three seem to aspire to WR2 status. Willie Snead and Jordan Mathews do round out a good corps (with rookie Tyler Boyd waiting in the wings) but it still looks to be more about floor than ceiling.
X-Factor: WR Russell Wilson appeared to be one kind of thing early in his career (winning game manager with the athleticism to make things happen in the clutch) before turning into a whole other kind of thing down the stretch for Pawnee last year: an unstoppable monster who could run and gun with the rest of them, and would, until you were murdered DEAD. Is that who he is now? Or did getting laid/married ruin him? If he struggles, you KNOW that will be the tabloid.
Draft Grade: B
Strength: A very well rounded team from the top down, Aaron Rodgers has a deep group of WRs that have high floors and high ceilings, along with a TE in Travis Kelce who is near the top of the mountain already, with the potential to summit. The defense is credible, and though perhaps not a special unit, it's no achilles for the Crew.
Weakness: The RBs are far from plug and play: Thomas Rawls has been slow to recover and may not inherit that top dog role that was assumed. Likewise, Justin Forsett went all the way to the edge of joblessness before staying in the mix, but with a role that is far from assured. LaGarrette Blount remains tied to a fickle offense that relies upon deception, where his game plan prominence is likely to wax and wane on whimsy. Chris Ivory has never stayed healthy long enough to be a feature back, and is already questionable for week one, with a younger more versatile back already solidified on the team. Four good options that will require a lot of juggling and luck to be maximized.
X-Factor: WR Jordy Nelson, like Kelvin Benjamin in Deputy, Jordy is back with the squad that lost him in 2015, getting a do-over on his lost season. Unlike Kelvin, Jordy has not been able to prove he is over the hump yet, and will need to show he is all the way back before this team can really be seen as a title contender.
Draft Grade: C-
Strength: There's a lot of high end talent here: Tom Brady, Allen Robinson, Rob Gronkowski, Eddie Lacy, Navorro Bowman, and D'Qwell Jackson all project to be upper crust options at their position. That should mask deficiencies, and also gives the team a marketable asset in every high-end market. Of course, after last year's market stripped the team down, we might see the former 'Chicago Blockbusters' be so aggressive. If bounce back candidates Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz, and Anquan Boldin can join Robinson and dependable Eric Decker this team could make a real run of things.
Weakness: Eddie Lacy retains upper echelon value, but his lows really sunk his promise in 2015. Purportedly refocused, he needs to be a bell cow for the Petes or they're in trouble. Jonathan Stewart is a steady presence as the second RB, and Deangelo Williams showed he has plenty of tread on his tires, but after a three game cameo as starter, he'll cede his share of carries, leaving his long term value in flux, and no fourth option currently rostered. Gronk lends considerable positional monopoly when healthy- but he's already been ruled out week one.
X-Factor: Ryan Fitzpatrick finished sixth in points last year, but was an after thought in the draft. He'll have a month behind the wheel before Tom Brady returns from suspension; While Brady is an obvious upgrade, if Fitzy can show that last years wasn't a fluke, Brady could fetch a haul from a QB needy team.
Draft Grade: C+
Strength: De naming pattern is strong: Demaryius Thomas, DeVante Parker, Desean Jackson, and Demarco Murray combine to form a very cohesive bit of detail. Unfortunately all four face some big question marks coming into the season- if each can surpass expectations and deliver, the Drivers could derail the opposition. The tight ends are pretty good: Jason Witten is dependable, and when Tyler Eifert is ready to debut, he could be a difference maker.
Weakness: Adrian Peterson will need to bear the load for the Drivers this year, as he and Big Ben Roethlisberger are tagged as the only two offensive players tagged for 200+ seasons. Jordan Hicks and Zach Brown are forecast for 200+ seasons, though neither has surpassed that number before. Past that, we see some
X-Factor: DeMarco Murray led the league in rushing two years ago, and then left a very fruitful arrangement for the unknown. (Well, a lot of money, and also the unknown.) His skills don't seem to have regressed as much as his context- his new offense seems determined to run the ball and maximize his talents. If he and fellow Sooner Adrian Peterson both hit, the Drivers will be booming.
Draft Grade: D
Strength: Malibu comes in with three potentially elite running backs: CJ Anderson, Lamar Miller, and Arian Foster. Anderson was a bust as a first round pick a year ago, but got it going in the second half of the season and has already filed away a 31.3 point performance in week one, some good mojo. Miller and Foster have flipped contexts, but both might fit better in their new environs; Neither excelled with LHT last year, so the new digs can only promise better returns.
Weakness: The Deadbeats D grade can be attributed to a faulty connection that kept them from drafting a defense. Fortunately, that plays right into the team's strength, as they have grabbed some sleeper cell entities that could prove quite formidable; Still, any bankable assets besides grizzled veteran Reggie Nelson, Malibu will have to prove it can stop somebody before it is inferred.
X-Factor: LB Deion Jones is a rookie that will be thrown right into the fire; Somewhat unheralded, he's going to have a chance to be a major factor, much like CJ Mosley in 2014. He'll anchor the defense, and there will be a direct correlation between his play, and the Deadbeat's success.
Draft Grade: C-
Strength: Cam Newton and Devonta Freeman were the top point scorers at their positions last year, putting up 395.78 and 325.60, respectively. That was a margin of 59.42 between Cam and #2 QB Russell Wilson, and a margin of 24.00 between Dev and #2 RB Adrian Peterson. Consider the roof raised. Carlos Hyde and Frank Gore give the team three credible backs- if all three can stay healthy, they should be a well oiled machine through the regular season. The TE position is also a strength: Julius Thomas has shown a great track record in the red zone, and is fully healthy again. Martellus Bennett might not have the great volume he is accustomed to- but he also should find a lot more space to work with, which should lend to a leap in efficiency.
Weakness: The Receiving Corps is weak. Randall Cobb is their best weapon, but he struggled at times in 2015, and will need a resurgence to WR1 status if this team is going to score through the air. Kevin White, Devin Funchess, and Laquon Treadwell are all too young and unproven to be relied on early; Kenny Stills and Danny Amendola are veterans, but both were up and down in 2015. With some good fortune, there could be a quality rotation at play there, but bad luck could see single digits in the lineup and the big numbers on the bench.
X-Factor: RB Dev Freeman was a star last year in Phoenix, but has had his share of doubters coming into 2016. New York moved Dez Bryant for him and Treadwell, and has to believe he'll be a top five RB again this year- he showed a capacity to produce in all situations, but also appeared to wear down towards the end of the season. Will slightly less volume mean more long lasting production?
Draft Grade: D
Strength: Luke Kuechly struggled with injuries early last year, but bounced back to be the most dominating defensive player in the league through the back two thirds of the season. He's long been among the best linebackers in the game, but he will need to continue his torrid pace to justify a first round pick; Besides Greg Olsen, there's no real marquee names on the offense- Mike Evans and Melvin Gordon are the keys to the season. Both are coming off somewhat disappointing years and need to be top notch and healthy to give the Pride a shot at returning to avenge their LBVII defeat.
Weakness: Doug Baldwin and Kamer Aiken are not causing anyone to quake with fear; Baldwin's late season run feels fluky- eleven of his fourteen TDs came in a five game stretch, he only went over 100 receiving yards three times, and he only had double digit targets three times. He's a nice piece, but he's not an elite WR. Kamer Aiken was forced into a starting role last year, and did alright- think Mohamed Sanu 2014. While he has shown himself to be competent, he's no longer the last man standing, and his talent is just average at best. There are no other WRs on the roster.
X-Factor: TE Jared Cook is in a position to put up the best numbers of his life, although, that sort of thing gets written about the athletic freak every preseason. This time it might be true: In a new offense, it might happen. For the Pride, it has to- he's the only flex option for week one. Bonus X-Factor, part of the reason the Pride bottom the power rankings is rookie CB Vernon Hargreaves being projected to score goose-eggs. He'll score a lot more than that this year!
No comments:
Post a Comment