The Final Week: Playoff Scenarios

This is it! The last week where fourteen teams will compete. Six will continue on in search of the Silver Chalice (three have been determined, two are most likely, one spot is genuinely up for grabs), six will compete for next year's draft position, and two will hit fantasy golf balls early. Lets take a look at who is still in the running, and what they need to do to secure their spot in the tournament.

1. SOUTH PARK COWS (9-3)
The Cows clinched weeks ago and can fall no lower than the three seed mathematically. However, with a 218 point lead on Orgrimmar and a 292 point lead on Phoenix... that is not going to happen. The Cows would need to put up the worst overall point total of the year and the Horde the best for there to even be a scenario where they fall to the two seed. Not gonna happen either. The South Park Cows, your #1 overall seed in the Larkspur Bowl X playoffs.
NUMBERS: Clinched a playoff spot with 99% chance of a bye

2. ORGRIMMAR HORDE (8-4) & 3. PHOENIX UPRISING (8-4)
Two teams, one bye week available. Orgrimmar is in the driver's seat here, with a substantial 74 point lead on the Uprising, making it veritably a win and in (to the #2 seed) situation for the team returning from its long hiatus. If Orgrimmar stumbles against a New York team that put up monster numbers in week 12, that gives Phoenix a chance to nab the first round bye with a win over the South Philly Rum Ham. Obviously both teams winning and Phoenix outscoring Orgrimmar by 75 would also result in a Phoenix bye. If both teams lose...
NUMBERS: Both have clinched playoff spots, 65% chance one team gets a bye

4. HILL VALLEY McFLYS (7-5) & 5. PAWNEE PRIDE (7-5)
Then we see one of these teams push their way up, potentially into the bye. Hill Valley and Pawnee play each other in the season's final week, and while both teams are almost assured a playoff spot due to their massive point totals, the opportunity get a pass is legitimate. If both teams can approach 200 points the loser can still breathe relatively easy about getting seeded.
NUMBERS: 99% chance of playoffs, 35% chance victor gets a bye

6. DEPUTY VAN HALENS (6-6), 7. BINGHAMTON SNIPERS (6-6), 8. SAVANNAH PETES (6-6)
One of these teams is likeliest to get the sixth and final seed; The loser of the Deputy vs Savannah matchup is not going to be that team. Binghamton will need to be the fourth team to defeat South Park and, 80 points behind Deputy, hope for a low scoring Savannah victory. The Snipers hold a ten point edge on the Petes (after defeating them in week 12 by just five points) so this could come down to numbers. For the Van Halens it's basically win and in, so they should be going at week 13 with all they've got- no use holding players back for a playoff that may never come.
NUMBERS: 40% chance DVH is 6 seed, 30% chance SAV is 6 seed, 20% chance BIN is 6 seed

9. HCM CITY LEAD FARMERS (6-6) & 10. MANITOBA MOOSECREW (6-6)
While both of these squads have a shot at a winning season, the large gap in points between them and their competitors makes them very unlikely fits for the playoffs. The path for HCM City is most likely contingent on Savannah and South Park both winning, while outscoring Savannah by 41 points. Not impossible, just improbable. Manitoba would likely need the same scenario, except... outscoring Savannah by 198. There is almost no chance that occurs.
NUMBERS: 9% chance HCM is 6 seed, 1% chance MMC is 6 seed

Six of those teams will make the playoffs, leaving four to be relegated to the consolation bracket; The first two in will get byes through the first round of the bracket to select draft picks, assuring them of a top four selection if they want it. The bottom half of that bracket is pretty close to taking shape. The two teams at the very bottom of the standings will have no post season, and be relegated to picking their 2019 draft picks seventh and eighth, just before the playoff teams.

11. BREW-TANG KILLA BEEZ (5-7)
The Beez reeled a couple of wins off against 6-6 teams (DVH, BIN), and came within a point of defeating a third (SAV) but even if they had reached .500, their playoff odds (as the lowest scoring team in the league) would have made Manitoba's look decent. Defeating HCM this week would give them six wins for the first time ever, and beyond that, they've clinched a spot in the consolation bracket. Victories there could give them their first finish in the league's top nine. Something to build upon!!

12. NEW YORK'S FINEST (4-8)
A down year for the Finest sees them out of the playoffs for the third time in the past seven years. However, despite their poor record, a win over Orgrimmar would cement their consolation bracket bid and give them a chance to secure a top draft pick; In 2014, the only year where they picked first overall, they won the Larkspur Bowl Championship. Coming off the team's second highest scoring week ever, New York is trending in the right direction as the season wraps up.

13. MAR-A-LAGO GRABBERS (3-9) & 14. PHILADELPHIA RUM HAM (3-9)
The Rum Ham haven't made the playoffs since 2012, The Grabbers since 2011. That's three uniform changes ago for Stabe, and five for Vince. Each team aggressively takes chances but annually ends up on the outside looking in. For the Grabbers a promising season came crashing down after two weeks, while Philly started roughly, collected themselves, then fell apart. With a win and a New York loss Mar-A-Lago could conceivably sneak into the consolation bracket, but it's a 70 point longshot. More likely, these two teams are done for the year. Perhaps sticking with one moniker long term will inspire more consistency!?