Week Thirteen Preview

As it happens, Week 13 has made itself exceedingly relevant: Six teams are competing for four spots in the big dance this week- two will be going home dateless and disgruntled after a long empty season. The little dance has plenty of moving parts as well, as only three slots are assured, the bottom five jockeying for the other three berths. The bottom two teams in the standings will see their 2015 season end, and their draft positions set at #7 and #8 on Tuesday December 8th.

All season it looked like New York and Phoenix would be the marquee matchup in the final week, but their matchup is little more than an exhibition, as each squad has already determined their placement in the bracket (#1 and #2 respectively) and will be on a bye in the first round. The consolation bracket still has axes to fall- but all eyes are on three matchups that each have the potential to eliminate a playoff hopeful:

Pawnee has all but clinched a playoff spot, the only one of the six teams in play that can be looking ahead to week fourteen with any authority. Still, expect them to be gunning to eliminate long time rival Hill Valley en route to the #3 seed. The McFlys survived this year winning on the fringes- they have put themselves in position to make the playoffs, and once in, who knows what happens next? Both of these teams have secured a winning record, so even with a loss, the McFlys would clinch the #6 seed if Toronto and the Islanders both win their matchups.

ADVANTAGES:

• QUARTERBACK: Cam Newton is the truest double threat in the game, able to win games all on his own- and in an offense designed to let him do just that. Russell Wilson is a similar player, with arguably more weapons at his disposal, but has not shown the ability to take the team on his back week in and week out like Newton.
  
• RECEIVERS: The Pride have assembled perhaps the greatest group of wide receivers in Larkspur Bowl history in Beckham, Green, Sanders, and Evans. Even Gary Barnidge gets a slight edge over Delanie Walker, though it is close. The McFlys are probably a close number two, with Thomas, Watkins, and Jeffrey all top flight players, but each has been very boom or bust this season, and health concerns have lingered all season. Marvin Jones is a nice player, but not really in the conversation with the other seven guys taking the field.
  
• RUNNING BACKS: The McFlys have overcome adversity to build a deep well of running backs, that could conceivably put together quality production- but carrying seven running backs on your roster and picking the right two is a tall proposition. Pawnee has three running backs better than any Hill Valley can trot out there: Martin, Ingram, and Rawls are a helluva trio.
  
• KICKER: Well, the Pride have Mason Crosby, and the McFlys currently have a vacancy in the lineup. So... currently, the advantage goes to Pawnee by default, though the McFlys will certainly have optimized their roster in time for kickoff.
  
• DEFENSE: Pawnee has a gap at linebacker they need to take care of, but even still, Hill Valley's collection of defenders is superior at every level. Robert Quinn has struggled with his health all year, and the only real difference maker for the Pride is Deone Bucannon. Josh Norman has been the best cornerback in the league, and NaVorro Bowman is as dependable a linebacker as there is.

Win and in for the Islanders. Lose and out for the Sasquatch. Both teams have it all on the table here, and Saskatoon will need some considerable help: A victory by 59 or more points would push them past the Islanders, and they either want Toronto to win, or the Cows to win in a very low scoring affair. Then they're rooting for Pawnee. The longest shot to make it, they'll have to go VERY BIG or they'll be going home. The Islanders could lose and still scratch and gnaw their way in if Toronto beats South Park and Pawnee beats Hill Valley, or one of those victories happen and the margin of defeat is 58 or less.

ADVANTAGES:

• QUARTERBACK: A near push at QB, as Big Ben is struggling with multiple injuries. If he's available to play the whole game, he's the pick over a fading Matt Ryan, but things as they are, it's almost impossible to give either team the edge. If Big Ben is ruled out completely, Matt Stafford is a wild card with the potential to be the key to victory or the cause of defeat. Worst case scenario for the Islanders might be Roethlisberger starting the game, but being unable to finish it- could RI hedge their bet and go with the Staff? Game time favors him- Ben being the late game on Sunday, Matt on MNF, there won't be any distractions in the selection process.
  
• WIDE RECEIVERS: Saskatoon has Antonio Brown who is at the very least, a top three WR in this game. But the rest of the corps is thin, with little in the way of certitude or difference making, so the edge goes to the better overall depth: Down years for Randall Cobb and Golden Tate are still serviceable, while rookie Amari Cooper has been polished and productive. Fellow rookie DeVante Parker just had his first useful line of the season, and is far from a sure thing, but backups Pierre Garcon and Marques Colston are worth consideration as well. The tight ends here are all capable of big games (Ben Watson for the Isle, Coby Fleener and Kyle Rudolph for the North) but none are of the reliable variety. I didn't mention any other Saskatoon WRs by name. That was not an oversight. 
  
• RUNNING BACKS: Were Marshawn Lynch active, this would be the Islanders' advantage. But he's not, and while Chris Ivory and LaGarrette Blount both do very good Beast Mode impersonations, they're not him, and both can get lost in the game flow shuffle. On the other side of the ball, Lesean McCoy has quietly been a double digit contributor in every game he has played; Latavius Murray has been nearly as reliable, although CJ Anderson may be forcing his way into the lineup after displaying the form he showed in the back nine in 2014. 
• KICKER: Neither Nugent or Janikowski have been an elite option in 2015, both putting up reliable PAT numbers, and the occasional long field goal. The edge is in matchup, where Nugent should have more opportunities to score against a lesser defense.
  
• DEFENSE: Two tough defenses in this one, but the edge goes ever so slightly to Saskatoon, who has three elite linebackers (David, Jackson, and Smith) to just two on the Island (Dansby and Posluszny) although Kenneth Coleman's insane run the past five weeks might make him the X-Factor in this one.
  

Toronto are in with a win; The Cows can likely win and get in as well, as long as the Sasquatch do not outscore them by 62; Even if they did, the Cows would get in with a win and a Hill Valley loss. If South Park loses, they are eliminated. LTP would still back into the playoffs with a loss and victories by Pawnee and the Islanders... but they're hoping to knock off their former co-manager and avoid being beholden to those scenarios.

ADVANTAGES:

• QUARTERBACK: Carson Palmer has been very good this season, as good as just about any quarterback in football. But not as good as Tom Brady. And Tom Brady is mad. Madder than he has ever been, maybe. And against a lesser defense, Brady is the only pick here. 
  
• WIDE RECEIVERS: Two good groups here: South Park's Julio Jones has been slightly better than the Megatron this year, but on a week to week basis they're a push; The rest of the wideouts favor South Park slightly, though LTP's group are not pushovers. There are a lot of parallels to draw here: John Brown (SPC) and DeSean Jackson (LTP) are home run threats, South Parks' Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks volume monsters with YAC to spare, while Travis Benjamin does the same thing for Toronto. James Jones is a savvy vet with a knack for the end zone, but throwing up zeroes in two of the last three games is a risky proposition; the alternative is another big play threat in Mike Wallace- but he hasn't made a big play since October 4th. Is he due? The tight ends are nothing special, LTP's Jacob Tamme a middling option, SPC's Vernon Davis something of a breakout candidate. Advantage South Park, on overall upside and backend floor.
  
• RUNNING BACKS: South Park has a medley of quality backs stuck in committees: Jeremy Hill, Jeremy Langford, Spencer Ware, and Duke Johnson have all shown great ability with the ball, but none have been able to get the Lion's share week in and out. LTP lost their two starters from the opener (Joseph Randle and Justin Forsett) but saw scatback Danny Woodhead deliver most of the season, before going quiet recently. But now it seems lightning has struck, as rookie David Johnson, who has bounced around the league as he looked for a role, is suddenly on deck for a monster workload. This could be his chance to breakout- if he does, Toronto could ride him right through the playoffs. 
• KICKER: I dunno. Toronto, because they have two of them.
  
• DEFENSE: Aaron Donald has slowed down considerably in recent weeks after a huge first month. The linebackers on both sides are more of the competent variety than true playmakers. So this decision is coming down to the Honey Badger, who is among the very best IDPs in the league.