This years Larkspur Bowl pits two very similar teams against each other: Both took Quarterbacks off the scrap heap, lack marquee running backs, and amassed a load of top end WRs. Neither invested any high picks in IDPs, and both have moved on from the tight end they started the season with. It's an interesting approach to team building that will likely see emulation in 2016. While everyone else secures their draft spot, we'll see long suffering Pawnee (36-42 all time) take on the sophomore juggernaut South Park (17-9 all time) for the Silver Chalice.
ADVANTAGES:
- QUARTERBACK: Carson Palmer's injured finger and questionable context mean Russell Wilson has the edge, even in a tough matchup. Both are capable of top level play, but Wilson's dual threat aptitude and hot streak (26+ points in five straight games) is the difference.
- RECEIVERS: While the Pride's fearsome foursome was the envy of the league all year, Beckham's suspension and Green's questionable back dial down expectations a few notches. Sanders and Evans are both coming off of huge games, but neither can match Julio Jones talent on the other side of the ball. Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks have both disappeared for a game here or two this season, but expect them to both be volume machines today: South Park holds the edge this week!
- RUNNING BACKS: Neither team boasts a high level run game- Pawnee is left with the only true premier back: Muscle Hamster Doug Martin. As the only elite option, the advantage is clear. South Park probably has the next best three or four options- If Spencer Ware is healthy, he's got huge upside, while the both Jeremys (Hill and Langford) are decent floor options that should get 10+ touches, and explosive rookie Duke Johnson could get close to that, if he is healthy. It's ugly after the Hamster for the Pride: Understudy Charles Sims might be the floor option? Veteran Donald Brown could be that as well. RB CJ Spiller has one big play in a season of disappointment. The rest: Pawnee's Bryce Brown started last week to minimal gain, while South Parks has shot in the dark Mike Gillislee, who did break off a 60 yard TD last week.
- TIGHT END: Gary Barnidge is the number two tight end in football, and Antonio Gates is still motoring on his hall of fame career. The Pride might be counting on their Jumbo set in this one, with Beckham sitting and thinking about what he did. That's okay- they've both got the edge on Zach Miller, a journeyman who offers reasonable floor and upside, but none of surety. Will Tye has scored TDs in two straight, and has maintained a steady role in the offense- he could be an X-Factor if he plays.
- FLEX: Even with their aforementioned quality Jumbo set, Pawnee is going to feel it at the flex position in LB VII: John Brown is an electric playmaker who has gone for double digits in five straight, and ten of thirteen on the year. South Parks' WR Corps didn't produce the oohs and ahhs of the Prides, but when it gets down to the numbers their top four outscored Pawnee 939.64 to 926.03 this year, and all four of theirs are active in week 16.
- KICKER: Mason Crosby is a savvy veteran that has proven his meddle in the clutch. However, Catanzaro has been the one getting the easy PATS to pad his numbers- 52 attemps versus Crosby's 35.
- DEFENSIVE LINE: 23rd round pick Aaron Donald made first round pick JJ Watt look like a wasted pick this year. Watt has been better by 34 points, but the opportunity cost is astounding- 2.3 more points per game to pick him 23 rounds earlier has made South Park's selection one of the shrewdest moves in the draft. Ziggy Ansah is a nice pass rusher, and on any given Sunday has every chance to match Donald... but the sophomore is the choice here.
- LINEBACKERS: Neither team boasts the kind of marquee captain you'd expect in the Larkspur Bowl; South Park traded captain Bobby Wagner, and replaced him with ho hum Kevin Minter and up and down rookie Denzel Perryman. Their comrade on the win is more exciting: Ryan Shazier and is young and lacks consistency, but has the potential to make the big splash. The Pride have a pair of workman veteran linebackers in Preston Brown and Kelvin Sheppard, and a more dynamic weapon in rookie Stephone Anthony.
- CORNERBACKS: A very interesting matchup of players who have put up good numbers in recent weeks. Parker is a model of consistency at a very inconsistent position, while Amerson is a big play artist who has hit more than he's whiffed recently. On the other side, Talib is a crafty veteran, while Verrett has the makings of an up and coming lockdown corner. The matchups favor the Cows, so we'll go with them- but this might be where Larkspur Bowll VII is decided.
- SAFETIES: Deone Bucannon is a monster. After propelling his team to the Larkspur Bowl, he'll be hard pressed to repeat his DPotW performance, but I wouldn't tell him that. Three double digit games in the past five, and no real vanishing acts make him the most potent secondary weapon in this matchup. But his Pawnee partner, Rashad Johnson missed last week due to injury, and remains questionable. Without an alternative, the advantage has to go to the Cows, who have bebopping Reggie Nelson, (who has gone double digits in eight of his last eleven matchups) and rocksteady Michael Griffin (who has only scored lower than 7.5 in three of his last twelve matchups.
TIMELINE: The Game's timeline appears to be fairly even- South Park should hope to go into the fourth quarter with a slight lead, although with both teams still looking to fill holes (Pawnee's flex and safety positions are in a flux, while South Park's RB committee is likely to be a game time decision) and vital playmakers in play in each quarter, this should be a showdown from start to finish. Current starters are listed in CAPS LOCK, while bench options are in lower case. At the time of writing, the Cows still have an open roster spot.
FIRST QUARTER:
TNF: PAW 2/2, SPC 2/0
TE ANTONIO GATES, CB JASON VERRETT, WR Javontee Herndon, RB Donald Brown
LB DENZEL PERRYMAN, CB DAVID AMERSON
SECOND QUARTER:
1:00: SPC 7/4, PAW 6/1
WR JARVIS LANDRY, WR JULIO JONES, RB JEREMY LANGFORD, TE ZACH MILLER, LB RYAN SHAZIER, CB RON PARKER, S MICHAEL GRIFFIN, RB Duke Johnson, RB Spencer Ware, RB Mike Gillislee, WR Jeremy Butler
WR MIKE EVANS, RB DOUG MARTIN, TE GARY BARNIDGE, DL ZIGGY ANSAH, LB PRESTON BROWN, LB KELVIN SHEPPARD, RB Charles Sims
THIRD QUARTER:
4:00: PAW 6/1, SPC 6/0
QB RUSSELL WILSON, RB BRYCE BROWN, K MASON CROSBY, LB STEPHONE ANTHONY, S DEONE BUCANNON, S RASHAD JOHNSON, RB CJ Spiller
QB CARSON PALMER, WR BRANDIN COOKS, WR JOHN BROWN, K CHANDLER CATANZARO, DL AARON DONALD, LB KEVIN MINTER
FOURTH QUARTER:
8:00: PAW 0/2, SPC 0/1
WR Odell Beckham, WR Hakeem Nicks
TE Will Tye
MNF: PAW 3/0, SPC 2/0
WR AJ GREEN, WR EMMANUEL SANDERS, CB AQIB TALIB
RB JEREMY HILL, S REGGIE NELSON
No comments:
Post a Comment