Thursday, October 4, 2018

Early Returns from Late Picks

The end of the draft is filled with endlessly churnable drek, as teams fill out their rosters with depth pieces that either afford a safety net, a lottery ticket.. or just fill a space. It's been established that finding a gem at the end of the draft can make a huge difference on your roster; but especially in the early weeks, the leash is short. Put up or shut up, produce or be cut. PRODUCERS?

A month into the season, lets take a look at the last ten rounds of the draft and see if there are glimmers of diamonds in the rough. (Hint: There are!) There's also bound to be a few names on the following lists that seem unremarkable now, but come the end of the season may end up being key players on some team... though not always the squad that drafted them.

ROUND 13:
A big round for IDPs, Tyrann Mathieu has been safety #15, which isn't so remarkable on its own- but coming an injury and in a new defense, the Honey Badger has shown enough that it can be INFERRED bigger games are coming on the back end of a quality South Park defense.

Mike Williams had three double digit weeks to start the year before a letdown in week four for the McFlys. It doesn't matter; With an elite skillset and a developing rapport, the second year WR will dominate some matchups. There's bound to be some inconsistency too, but a WR2 this late in the draft is noteworthy.

Adrian Peterson's long and storied career saw him selected in the first round many-a-times, but at 33 years old and with the tread on his tire well worn it was fair to wonder what he had left. Well, in two out of three matchups the answer was... a lot. Enough to see the Rum Ham jettison Jordan Howard and trust the future hall of famer to bellcow their offense.

ROUND 14:
Kenny Stills's reputation is one of a deep threat, but he's been a credible flex this year, and a credit to Savannah's deep WR corps. Injuries are already testing the Petes, but Stills should be relied upon for okay volume and a coin flip on turning in a big play.

After a goose egg in week one, Calvin Ridley has been a bonafide stud three weeks in a row, scoring six touchdowns during that time. That pace will slow, but the Crew found themselves a great compliment at a position of strength. Slotting in behind Odell Beckham and Mike Evans (but ahead of Kelvin Benjamin, Paul Richardson, Terrelle Pryor, and Mohammed Sanu) he gives Manitoba a claim on the league's best WR trifecta.

Avery Williamson was drafted by Orgrimmar but has joined fellow 14th round pick on Hill Valley's defense. Neither player is in the 'cream of the crop' at their position, but each has top 20 numbers and could easily push higher than that.

George Kittle is TE3, sandwiched between Travis Kelce and Zack Ertz... who both went at the top of the third round. At a desolate position, he wouldn't even need to maintain that pace to be a steal at the caboose of the 14th round. If he finishes as a top seven TE he's still great value to the Cows.

ROUND 15:
Derwin James is the top safety in the league, and early favorite for defensive rookie of the year, and a 15th round pick, ten rounds after the first safeties came off the board. As a rookie, will offenses study the tape and find ways to exploit him? Perhaps. But Pawnee's gifted playmaker with top notch pedigree is going to get snaps as long as he's healthy, and I wouldn't bet against him staying on the fast track to superstardom.

Orgimmar's Myles Garrett could easily end up a top five defensive lineman this year. In fact, that's exactly where he slots right now, 4/13ths of the way through the season. There's only one player at the position ahead of him that's offering better value (we'll get to him) but 2017s #1 overall NFL pick Garrett still has plenty of upside to capitalize upon. Don't sleep on him potentially being top three DL by the end of the year.

Kenny Golladay has broken out in a big way for Savannah, putting up WR1 numbers in the early going. His evolution might give the Petes the leeway to move one of there more established wideouts (Adam Thielen, Sammy Watkins, Josh Gordon) for running back help if the backfield's injury problems continue to linger.

Andrew Luck going as the 16th quarterback off the board is understandable and yet also somehow unfathomable. His inability to get on the field for two straight years had a lot of people questioning what he had left at 29 years old. While the jury is still out on if he can be a top quarterback in this league long term, his 39.26 points in week four declare his upside for Phoenix.

ROUND 16:
Jamal Adams was a late draft pick by the Van Halens, and party to their defense's terrible week one performance. After wholesale changes, Adams remains, and the past three weeks have shown record setting results. A lot of that is credit to top IDP Darius Leonard, but Adams has done his part too, ranking in as the third best safety to date.

 Jordan Hicks is also producing at a LB1 rate, showing at #7 overall a month into the season. Another player who has always rated well when healthy, the luster came off him due to one full season and two halves in his first three years. As long as he can play... he can play. And Manitoba knows that.

Quincy Enuwa is not a WR1. But he might be a WR2, with sure hands, great volume, and YAC to spare. As long as he's healthy (he's currently questionable) he's a superb flex option- and would slot higher than that on most any other team. That the Grabbers line up Stefon Diggs, Juju Smith Schuster, and Alshon Jeffery before him is no stain on the offensive steal of the 16th round.

(Pour one out for Hill Valley's Tyler Eifert, RIP.)

ROUND 17:
DeSean Jackson has turned back time in September, playing as a WR1 in New York. His game, like the player himself, will always contain a level of volatility- but he's still, at nearly 32 years old, one of the league's fastest and most elusive receivers in the game. Are there any other every week offensive starters being selected this late? I don't think so.

ROUND 18:
TJ Yeldon was selected by Deputy as a handcuff in the late rounds, and Leonard Fournette's early struggles to stay healthy have already made the pick look prophetic. To his credit, Yeldon, once fairly well touted himself, has done better with this season's opportunities than he ever had shown before, earning a role regardless of Lenny's legs.

ROUND 19:
Austin Ekeler was selected by Deputy as a handcuff in the late rounds, and his electric play in support of starter Melvin Gordon has already made the pick look prophetic. Look- barring a shift to outright platoon (which diminishes the Van Halen's upside a bit) their investment in handcuffs has them pretty well covered at both RB slots in fourteen of sixteen weeks of potential pigskin, while only hogging four roster spots. SMART!

ROUND 20:
Anthony Hitchens has not dominated yet, ranking as linebacker #30 and seeing his numbers steadily dwindle. Doesn't matter, don't pay attention to that. South Parks' Hitchens is not a name brand, but he's an every down linebacker that has produced throughout his career when given the opportunity. Think Preston Brown or Joe Schobert, this is a LB2 while everyone else is picking kickers. (Note, I realize no kickers were drafted in round 20. But they might as well have been.)

ROUND 21:
Back to back value picks by the Cows, Geronimo Allison might be the last offensive player who has already made a major difference in the travails of the team that drafted him this season. The 24th ranked WR has put up double digits every week, and while a concussion threatens to snap that streak at four, South Park's ability to capitalize on end of draft value is approaching legendary status.

ROUND 22:
A twofer in the penultimate round, Orgrimmar's selection of John Johnson III (formerly of Fred Tee and the Johnsons) was an inspired selection, as he's delivered top four numbers through four weeks. Ice on the pavement is very dangerous, but this team plays on turf.

Another South Park Cow, Demarcus Lawrence, sneaks in as an end of draft pass rushing dynamo. Is the league's vast big blue conspiracy to blame for the aversion to the Lone Star edge rusher? Who knows. South Park pounced on the opportunity, and Lawrence has pounced on a quarterback every week since, grading as the #2 DL (behind only the peerless Khalil Mack) and scoring 1.0, 1.0, .5, and 3.0 sacks to date. Good job.

ROUND 23:
Man what a choice James Conner was by the HCM Lead Farmers, one slot ahead of Mr Irrelevant. The first month's sixth rated running back passed up by nearly every team, twenty two times in a row? WOW. Except, right after the draft, despite his stock creeping upwards as Le'Veon Bell's status grew more and more questionable, the Lead Farmers dropped their pick, and the McFlys registered an early contender for waiver claim of the year. Yikes.






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