Friday, September 1, 2017

2017 Season Preview: By the Numbers

THE SEASON IS NEARLY HERE!

Once the games start, all bets are off. But until then Y! projections will have to guide us. As such, the defending champions have the worst rating, while the only veteran squad to never taste the playoffs is a paper tiger for the moment.



In an effort to gauge team's overall strength I distilled each team's usable depth at a position and averaged their scores to get a relative understanding of how they rate. I did not compute depth at QB, K, or DL; I used only starters for the other IDP positions. At TE the top two players were computed, At RB the top four, and at WR the top five. Whenever a team had a hole in their lineup, or a player that did not have ample projections, I used a minimum threshold number, based on the projections of players available on the wire.* Combining the scores give us a raw overall score that details how Y! expects the team's firepower to stack up:


*Note: I made an error in kickers, where I accidentally allowed a few scores below the minimum threshold (NYF and MMC) but I didn't feel it was worth it to go back and alter things. Sorry!

Taking those numbers and finding the average score allowed me to discern relative strengths and weaknesses at each positional group, illustrated in the graph below. The average score (black text/no background) slides up and down based on the volume of talent- as you can see, only FOUR teams possess a stronger than average group of running backs (a scarce position) whereas half the league can boast above average quarterbacks and linebackers. Cornerback projections seem wonky in general- expected, due to the volatile nature of the position group.

Here's the part you scanned down to if you just wanted to see how your team ranked at each position.
Before the season begins we'll examine how each team's strengths and weaknesses give them trade leverage.

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