Yahoo!'s prognostications, based on their projections, are computed optimally, but make no allowances for roster moves set to counter bye weeks. By the same token, they have no means of factoring in injuries, the unplannable menace that will hinder us all over the next thirteen weeks. Mostly, they place everyone along a rough bell curve, with a single team scoring double digit wins, which is a pretty reasonable assesment; In the four years that comprise the modern Larkspur Bowl Era, four teams have scored double digit W's:
- 2010 Phoenix Uprising 10-3
- 2010 Orgrimmar Horde 10-3
- 2011 Hill Valley McFlys 10-3
- 2012 New York's Finest 10-3
The 12-1 forecast for the Uprising is presumptuous, and we can assume some more variance drawing everyone toward the middle- likewise, it is highly unlikely three teams finish with double digit losses, when its depths have only ever been reached by three teams, most of whom had totally given up on their season, and two of which were thus relegated:
- 2009 Levee G-Men 3-10
- 2010 Rochester Hustlers 3-10
- 2012 Vermont Rams 3-10
Instead, I think we'll see everyone trend a little bit closer to mediocrity. Two teams reaching double digit wins, five more over .500, three more just below the surface, and four more sinking to the bottom of the sea. Also, my predictions are bound to blow up in my face and make me eat crow. Which, fine, I'll take pultry over fish ten times out of ten. Gentlemen, my preseason, precatastrophe, predictions:
- 1. Phoenix Uprising 10-3: Picking my own team to be the best in the league is an obvious death knell, and the Uprising are now cursed to suffer Murphy's Law. As if I believed in things like that! If you believe in ghosts, don't tell me, because I will have a little bit less respect for you.
- 2. Hill Valley McFlys 10-3: I expect Mike to make some shrewd pickups, cash in his waiver claim for a trump card, and fleece some suckers in trades. Factor in that he already has a high level roster with no obvious weaknesses in his starting lineup, and the McFly's are prime contenders.
- 3. Chicago BiPolarbears 9-4: The Bears have made, in my opinion, the best moves since the draft. As they sit now, they have considerable upside and depth- it will really come down to Quarterback play. They'll open the season with Big Ben Roethlisberger, who has the chops, and the setup, to outplay his 7th round billing by a longshot.
- 4. Toronto LTP 8-5: A serious case of run bad kept LTP from sniffing the playoffs last year. I don't believe in luck, but if they had it, it would have been bad. This year they have a stellar roster stocked with dependable talent, solid sleepers, and the best running back depth in the league. I think Toronto will make some noise, then politely apologize to the neighbors, eh?
- 5. New York's Finest 7-6: The Finest will also be among the busiest, but without another blockbuster that cleans out all of Chicago's talent, they'll have a hard time repeating last year's ten win fairy tale. Still, despite some depth issues, they have a strong core of high level players that should give them solid footing for a post season berth.
- 6. Orgrimmar Horde 7-6: Despite being outspokenly divested from his 2009 Champion managerial style, The Bastards put together a nice team via the draft. They'll need some RB depth, but with a penchant for working the wire, I expect the Horde to patiently position themselves for a promising playoff run.
- 7. California Swag 7-6: The defending champs had an up and down season last year, before steamrolling through the playoffs. They benefited greatly from adding JJ Watt after the draft, and getting first round production from him at the league's thinnest position. This year's team is solid with decent upside, but it won't sneak up on anyone again.
- 8. Bristol Executioners 6-7: The Executioners have a nice team, and are well equipped to handle depth issues. Bristol has been the best at working outside of the box, utilizing unheralded players to efficient and effective degrees; Their wire moves have been superb, but they have been unable to proactively improve via trade- if Vince starts sending out feelers and tapping that market, look out.
- 9. Atlanta Rage 6-7: This has less to do with the team assembled, and more to do with the basket their stats are in. I expect the Falcons to degrade this year, and a step back on the field will hurt this team directly. Of course, most football experts still expect the Falcons to contend again, so, if I'm wrong there, I'm probably wrong here too.
- 10. Silver City FC 6-7: Silver City's season will be defined by what happens if SNICKERS sleeper selection Mike Vick turns out to be a viable QB. If Ajay can turn him into a nice haul, or ride him as his primary QB, look out. If not, his WR corps is weak and his up and down defense will probably lose him as many games as it wins.
- 11. Levee G-Men 5-8: It is hard to predict where Levee finishes: I could see them as a top three squad or a bottom three squad, or anywhere in between. There are some nice pieces in place, but little in the way of depth, and I just don't expect Pete to make the moves necessary to punch back against injuries.
- 12. Teamville Players 5-8: This team's standing will be directly tied two things: John's interest level, and the Patriots' offense. Also, I expect John's interest level to be contingent upon the Patriot's offense. So really, it is a matter of Belichick's gang of no-names proving his genius. Or not. I'm not totally sold.
- 13. Oakwood Drivers 4-9: The league's newest team has made a series of curious moves that I cannot fully comprehend. Perhaps it's genius, and the Drivers will rename the cup for Oakwood's glory. But I don't see it. I don't see a single player on the roster that can live up to or outplay their draft position. That says BAD VALUE to me.
- 14. Pawnee PJers 4-9: The Pacey Jones Army has two stellar running backs, and a third that gives them a nice layer of depth. I would say more, but I have run out of good things to say about this team. There's a bunch of WRs that have upside? Andrew Luck will probably improve on last year's efficiency numbers? Victor Cruz cha chas real smooth?
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