Monday, December 17, 2018

X: Semifinals, Two Minute Drill

It's been a horrific week for scoring, as the winner's bracket features four teams all failing to crack 170 points. In the previous 56 games these teams played, Pawnee scored 171 (week 1), Hill Valley scored 169 (week 10), and Phoenix scored 168 (week 3)- that's it. All 53 other games had all four teams score better, so suffice to say, this was a low for all involved. The South Park Cows had only gone lower that 205 once, a still admirable 186 in week 12; They're at 108 heading into their final possession.

Another component of the story is that all four teams left major points on their bench already; For South Park, Derrick Henry or Justin Jackson would have been a huge boon over Lamar Miller (who was injured on his third touch of the game. Keenan Allen also went down with an injury before registering a point (the highlight reel touchdown grab he got injured making was ruled out of bounds upon review) and alternatives fared little better. Phoenix managed to have three 20+ scorers on their bench and zero in the lineup headed into tonight; Pawnee's optimal lineup would have featured Chris Carson and Peyton Barber instead of Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. Elijha McGuire would have bested James White by a 6.5 margin that could end up mattering a whole lot to the McFlys.

In the Uprising vs Pride matchup, it comes down to DJ Moore need to score 40 points tonight to get the defending champions back to the championship game. His career high for a single game is 31, so it would really take the game of his life to upend a Pawnee team that underperformed their projection by a clean fifty points and has no one left to go. If he falls short of that lofty goal, it's Pawnee that will be headed to the title game on a six game win streak. They lost to South Park in their only appearance to date, LBVII.

The more interesting game will be the top seeded Cows trying to overtake the McFlys, the latter staked to an 18 point lead, with each team deploying three players tonight: For Hill Valley it's Luke Kuechly, Ian Thomas, and new addition Eli Apple; South Park will lean on Drew Brees, Curtis Samuel, and Demario Davis. Brees is the surest bet to score big numbers, but Luke has gone for double digits in six in a row, and 11 of 13 overall, while Ian Thomas caught 9 of 11 targets last week. Each of these teams has already been to the top of the mountain once before, and knows what it takes to win... something far greater than we saw in week fifteen. Still, two teams are going on regardless.

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