Wednesday, February 10, 2016

#5 Toronto Year-In-Review


Preview: (Posted before the 2015 Draft)
After a middling rookie season in 2012, 'Les Tres Petites' have produced back to back playoff seasons, ranking third overall in points both years. Stu Ferguson didn't miss a beat when "Co-Manager Mike" left him to take the reins in Toronto: a steady hand and a resistance to impulse moves kept them at the head of the pack in 2014. That hardened Canadian resolve should prove enduring in 2015.

Final Record:
Seven Wins, Six Losses (2,248.00 points; 172.92 avg - 9th)

Playoffs:
Lost to Pawnee Pride in Larkspur Bowl Quarterfinals 206.21 - 123.32
Defeated  Revis Islanders in 5th Place Game 253.18 - 217.64

Synopsis:
Les Tres Petites are who we thought they were: drafting solid value, sticking with the horses that brought them, good enough to compete in every game and make the playoffs, but a bit underpowered when it comes to making postseason noise. The team made the second fewest moves in the league this year- only last place Oakwood made less, and in two fewer weeks. Their insistence on riding on the fringe in terms of depth options has often turned out fortuitous: Danny Woodhead was thrust into a starting role and excelled; and the way the dominoes fell, Toronto ended up with David Johnson right when he was about to blossom into the unstoppable juggernaut he was born to be.  After beating most of the teams they should (five of their six losses came to teams with winning records) the teams' failings came to a head at the end of the year, as they backed into the playoffs and then exited quickly, those two weeks their lowest scoring of the season. Megatron and the rest of the WRs suddenly could not produce, and their secondary fell into disrepair. However, as if to answer doubters, in the fifth place game Toronto exploded for 253.18 points- the highest weekly score in 2015, and a mere .06 off of Phoenix's all time record of 253.24; Toronto is an enigma year to year... but a highly competent one.

Draft Analysis:
VALUABLE ; TRADED ; DROPPEDRECYCLEDINJURED

LTP had three absolute steals in this draft- Capitalizing on Tom Brady's uncertain status in the seventh round (and then moving Brees) Tyrann Mathieu in the twelfth (one of two elite safeties in 2015) and Danny Woodhead in the 19th. The Woodhead pick might have been the reason this team was a playoff team at all. Randle flamed out quickly and Forsett went down with an injury. Two years in a row Toronto has gone against the grain and eschewed the urge to amass RB depth, instead using his bench to work an optimal lineup week to week. Wallace is technically listed as 'valuable' but was barely flex worthy most of the season.







Projected Points by Position versus League Average Projections (POST DRAFT)
LTP: A GRADE
Strength: Offense
Weakness: Secondary

Toronto comes in with a great draft, and their offense projects above average at every spot. Their defensive backs came down with 16 picks last year- will variance lead to regression?


Trade Review: (Listing each player's point total following the trade)

  • OCT 11 Traded QB Drew Brees (257.84) to PAW for WR James Jones (114.1) and QB Matthew Stafford (227.3)
Toronto made one trade this year, and it ended up working out pretty nicely. The Quarterback market is notoriously finicky, as value waxes and wanes. With Brady a fixture under center, they took advantage of Pawnee's uncertainty in Stafford to hedge the bet, acquiring another QB of starting caliber as well as taking a chance on James Jones, who had solid early returns in the first month. Jones showcased his ability as a quality secondary WR, chipping in catches and TDs in abundance, and giving the team a deep stable to draw from. The move would have graded better if LTP had been able to spin Stafford off for another piece (he was eventually dropped for nothing) or moved a spare WR for something else (DeSean Jackson and Mike Wallace were both connected with trade rumors, but nothing was ever finalized.) In the end, the trade was still a moderate win.

Player of the Week Awards:
  • WK02 PUotW: WR Travis Benjamin (42.45 points)
  • WK03 DPotW: FS Tyrann Mathieu (35.00 points
  • WK11 PUotW: LB Paul Worrilow (17.55 points)
  • WK15: OPotW: RB David Johnson (51.70 points)
All Larkspur Bowl Players:
  • Safety Tyrann Mathieu (209.60 points)
  • Quarterback Tom Brady (338.60 points)
  • Cornerback Trumaine Johnson (176.80 points)
Depth Chart:
  • QB: Tom Brady
  • RB: Danny Woodhead, Justin Forsett, David Johnson, Joseph Randle, Chris Thompson
  • WR: Calvin Johnson, Travis Benjamin, James Jones, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace
  • TE: Zach Ertz, Jacob Tamme
  • K: Steven Hauschka
  • DL: Cliff Avril, Cameron Heyward, Justin Tuck
  • LB: Lawrence Timmons, Vincent Rey, Paul Worrilow, Keenan Robinson, Koa Misi, Hauoli Kikaha
  • CB: Trumaine Johnson, Jerraud Powers, Aaron Colvin, Alterraun Verner, Marcus Williams
  • S: Tyrann Mathieu, David Bruton, Tashaun Gipson

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