#13 Liberal 2015 Year-In-Review

Preview: (Posted before the 2015 Draft)
The Trauma, (aka the Massacre, aka the Executioners) lost the 2011 semifinal by the slimmest of margins, on an overturned call. Had they won, and everything else remained the same, they would have ousted the Horde, and there would be a significant piece of hardware on their mantle. Instead, they continue to live under the specter of what might have been. A couple of uninspired years moved the team to O-Town, where they scored well (4th overall in total points) but couldn't put enough checks in the left column to make a playoff run. Now they move to Liberal armed with the fourth overall pick, where they might have trouble bringing back Jamaal Charles for a third tour- we'll see on 8/16.
(Ed. Note: Charles went first overall to Hill Valley.)

Final Record:
Four Wins, Nine Losses (2,070 points; 159.24 avg - 14th)

Playoffs:
None (13th place)

Synopsis:
There was a lot of losing in Liberal this year, but not for lack of trying. The first five weeks of the season all ended in defeat- (two of them single digit margins) but the team continued to work at its roster, and came very close to reeling off six straight victories, starting in week six: Some soft opposition helped as they defeated Savannah, Manitoba, and Saskatoon in succession. But they could not complete the Canadian sweep, losing a tight one to Toronto before rebounding to beat #14 Oakwood in week ten (albeit in the lowest scoring combined matchup of the season) before a nailbiting loss to Phoenix. ONE POINT! They threw in the towel for the final two weeks and missed the consolation bowl pondering what could have been? A few fortuitous points here or there, and this might have been an (unlikely, under powered) playoff team. The top of their draft failed them pretty spectacularly through a combination of ineffectiveness (Lacy) and injury (Cruz) and while they made the moves they needed to in order to try and salvage their season, it just wasn't enough. Sometimes things don't work out the way you want them to.

Draft Analysis:

VALUABLE ; TRADED ; DROPPED; RECYCLED; INJURED

This draft just didn't work out. Only three players survived the season for HT- and one of them (Moncrief) they dropped and had to trade to get back. Only Agholder and Spiller rate as true busts; Liberal sifted through sleepers and found a lot of guys that would be valuable eventually, as almost everyone drafted here ended up having value- most just ended up doing more for other teams. It is about knowing when to hold em, knowing when to fold em, and knowing when to leave a sleeper on the wire and fight the anxiety to pluck them prematurely.









Projected Points by Position versus League Average Projections (POST DRAFT)

LHT: C GRADE
Strength: Weapons
Weakness: Defense

There's a ton to like about Liberal's receiving corps, and the RBs are loaded with top flight potential. The defense doesn't project greatness, but LHT is a master of sleeper IDPs.

Trade Review: (Listing each player's point total following the trade)

• OCT 1 traded RB Lamar Miller (214.1) and WR Victor Cruz (0.00) to PHX for WR Donte Moncrief (106.1) and RB David Johnson (200.9)

HT started the season with bonafides Miller and Lacy starting at RB; Miller was mildly disappointing through the first three weeks, scoring 10, 8, and 9 points respectively, and Arian Foster was on his way back for week 4, giving the team a built in replacement. Liberal needed help at WR and was familiar with Moncrief, whom they had drafted in the 23rd round before dropping. His early season explosion (50.33 points through three weeks) made them want him back, so they bundled Victor Cruz and his uncertain timetable, and got lottery ticket David Johnson. Cruz never played (at all) while Johnson struggled to get regular playing time until later in the season- on Toronto. Miller ended up getting his season in gear following his week 5 bye, finishing as the #6 overall RB; Moncrief ended up scoring almost a third of his total points for the Uprising. In conception the trade was good for both teams, but the Uprising ended up getting the better deal here.

• OCT 29 traded WR AJ Green (163.9) to PAW for QB Drew Brees (216.16), RB James Starks (107.4), and WR Danny Amendola (76.93)

A real blockbuster, HT gave up their top WR in Green to plug numerous holes. With QB Blake Bortles heading into a bye, and with the HT coming off their first win (and needing every one they could muster at 1-5) it was prime time to upgrade: Enter Drew Brees. The future hall of famer came in and dropped 49.2 points in his Liberal debut, leading a resurgent team through the high point of their season; He would end up the #5 QB on the year, supplanting the younger Bortles the rest of the way. Gaining James Starks to play batterymate to teammate Eddie Lacy was a subtle depth move that would pay dividends (Starks ultimately outscored Lacy on the year) and Danny Amendola (coming off back to back big weeks) could have been a boost to a team that lost Green but had an emerging star in Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, Amendola's HT debut was mediocre, and he was dropped before he could do much for the team down the stretch, when he did post three more big games that might have made Liberal a dark horse in the home stretch.

• NOV 9 traded RB Eddie Lacy (92.3) to PHX for RB Jonathan Stewart (89.7) and WR Cecil Shorts (47.39) 

Eddie Lacy scuffled all season, showing flashes of his dominant self but being unable to deliver a trustworthy week to week performance. After briefly offering a glimmer of hope for Liberal, Arian Foster went down with a crunch, and with CJ Spiller not the answer (never the answer) the team decided that James Starks was their packer, and swapped unsteady Eddie for the more consistent Jonathan Stewart. Stewart put up five straight beast weeks for Liberal, but their season faded and ended despite his effort. (The numbers are somewhat misleading, as Stewart DNP in the final three weeks of the season.) Shorts was something of an afterthought, but did fill the roster with three quality weeks of production in four starts at the end of the year.

Player of the Week Awards:

• WK02 DPotW: CB Marcus Peters (32.75pts)
• WK03 OPotW: WR AJ Green (48.8pts)
• WK08 OPotW: QB Drew Brees (49.2pts)
• WK13 PUotW: LB Von Miller (22pts)

All Larkspur Bowl Players:

• Cornerback: Marcus Peters (218.5pts)

Depth Chart:

• QB: Drew Brees, Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor
• RB: Jonathan Stewart, Arian Foster, James Starks, Brandon Bolden
• WR: Stefon Diggs, Donte Moncrief, Kendall Wright, Cecil Shorts, Nate Washington, Nelson Agholder, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Dorial Green-Beckham
• TE: Travis Kelce, Garrett Celek
• K: Brandon McManus
• DL: Sheldon Richardson, Ndamukong Suh
• LB: James Laurinaitis, Avery Williamson, Von Miller, Jordan Hicks, Demario Davis, Brian Orakpo
• CB: Marcus Peters, Antonio Cromartie, Nolan Carroll, Deangelo Hall, Bradley Roby
• S: Mark Barron, Will Allen, Aaron Williams