Friday, October 29, 2021

Trade 8: No Loose Ends

Phoenix continues to dominate the trade market (in quantity at least, quality tbd) participating in five of the league's eight deals to date, the last of which saw them move their first round pick to Carmel.

CARMEL ACQUIRES: TE TRAVIS KELCE, RB MELVIN GORDON, QB CARSON WENTZ

PHOENIX ACQUIRES: RB JAMES ROBINSON, TE DALTON SCHULTZ, TE DALLAS GOEDERT

Utilizing the trading block to list Kelce, offers came fast- and after a few rounds of negotiation a blockbuster deal came together. The league's top tight end goes to the Green & Gold, while a pair of impersonators will try to fill the void in Phoenix. Meanwhile, the Uprising get a true workhorse running back, while Carmel will mix and match opposite Zeke Elliot.

With a top flight tight ends at a premium, Kelce is the belle of the ball; as long as he stays upright he will put up WR1 numbers with a positional advantage that is tough to match. Schultz and Goedert are both pretty well ballyhooed at this point, but are a couple of tiers below Kelce in upside while offering none of the reliable floor.

James Robinson is the get here- his role as a bellcow seems to be well defined, while the buzz is that Melvin Gordon will eventually be supplanted by Javonte Williams. We have seen veterans stubbornly hold on to their roles before- and Gordon is only a few years removed from elite production, so it is a gamble Carmel was inclined to take to set and forget Kelce. 

The final piece of the puzzle here  is Wentz, who in recent weeks has seemed to recapture his old glory. The quarterback market is notoriously fickle, but with Kyler Murray yet to have his bye (and in the waning moments of his week eight game suffering a yet to be defined leg injury) he could serve as a precognizant get for the Rudy-Toos.



Trade 7: Somethings Old, Something New

The reeling Phoenix Uprising have dropped three straight, and operating from a position of weakness dealt their best wide out to Philadelphia for a pair of 2018's top superstars.

PHILADELPHIA ACQUIRES WR TERRY McLAURIN
PHOENIX ACQUIRES WR JULIO JONES & RB MELVIN GORDON

First things first, McLaurin is one of the league's premier playmakers, and if his quarterback situation improves he is on the shortlist for WR1 the rest of the way. Philadelphia immediately upgrades it's upside, while dealing from a position of depth- Jonathan Taylor is an every week RB1, while Cordarrelle Patterson, in his ninth year in the league, has finally been unlocked as a dependable playmaker. With Tony Pollard a reliable depth option, the team can move forward without Melvin Gordon.

Phoenix would pivot and almost immediately deal Gordon (forthcoming blog) while placing Julio Jones on the IR for week eight and hoping his nagging injuries are resolved down the stretch. The two players were drafted just six picks apart (McLaurin 35th overall and Jones 41st overall) a couple of months ago, so there's a chance that this move could work out for the Uprising- but age remains undefeated and Julio is on the wrong side of thirty. TIME WILL TELL AS IT ALWAYS DOES.



Thursday, October 28, 2021

Trade 6: The Upside Down

Wednesday saw a trio of trades go down as the frigid market finally has managed to light a burner. This deal saw a team at the top (6-1 Manitoba) and the squad at the bottom (1-6 Pawnee) flips some players around to meet their needs.

MANITOBA ACQUIRES: RB CHRIS CARSON & WR KADARIUS TONEY
PAWNEE ACQUIRES: RB ZACK MOSS, RB DEVONTAE BOOKER, WR JAKOBI MEYERS

For the Moosecrew this is a haul- two high end (currently injured) talents that Manitoba has the luxury of waiting upon due to their deep bench and high standing. When right Carson is a bonafide RB1 whom the Crew can pair with Najee Davis or Damien Harris on a weekly basis once he returns to health. Meanwhile, Toney showed why he was a first round pick with off-the-charts wiggle on display in week 5, but went down with an injury early in week 6. This is a classic buy-low for a strong team with an eye on seizing a championship trophy.

In Pawnee, desperation is at threat level midnight, and with no room for error they had to have playmakers NOW. Wide Receiver was already their strongest position- Jakobi Meyers lacks the upside of Toney but offers a dependable helping of targets each week, a low risk WR3/4 that gives them the flexibility to move another talented WR while retaining depth through the bye weeks. Devontae Booker is the sorely needed handcuff for Saquon Barkley- ideally Pawnee sees their recent trade acquisition go the distance, but if he's shelved again now they have insurance. Zack Moss is not a burner nor the bellcow he is built to be, but he is a viable RB3 who can be mixed and matched with Myles Gaskin on a weekly basis, while the team hopes AJ Dillon gets the break he needs to see the lion's share of touches.



XIII: Week Seven Results

Treason stay perfect with the Moose Crew biting at their heels, and just six teams over .500 as we put seven games behind us and have just six more to go before the playoffs start.

At 5-2 Deputy, Philadelphia, and South Park are all sitting pretty on the far side of the hump; Given the league's makeup it would take an utter collapse for any to miss the playoffs. (If the team in Colorado drops, the pun hangs low.) At 4-3 HCM City is in a good spot, controlling their own playoff destiny the rest of the way. 

Meanwhile the rest of the league needs wins and help to gain entry to the second season; Binghamton and Phoenix, by virtue of their three banked wins, have the inside track. Five teams at 2-5 are on the precipice, while Pawnee would need to reel off six straight wins with copious amounts of scoring to make a Cinderella run- otherwise, they're just hoping for a consolation bid for draft position.

Week 7 Matchups

 

TEAM OF THE WEEK SEVEN: LIGHTNING ROUND!

QB: MATT STAFFORD (MMC) 28.86

RB: ALVIN KAMARA (OTB) 33.70

WR: COOPER KUPP (MMC) 39.00

TE: CJ UZOMAH (OTB) 25.50

DL: DEFOREST BUCKNER (HCM) 14.00

LB: DEMARIO DAVIS (HVM) 33.00

CB: JALEN RAMSEY (DVH) 20.25

SS: KYLE DUGGER (DVH) 21.20

PK: GRAHAM GANO (SAV) 15.00

I will try to get back to expanded and timely reports next week!


Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Trade 5: Swingin' Around

DeVante Parker is on the move again! After being selected 147th overall by Phoenix he was traded in the preseason for the Ravens' presumptive starting running back. Now, again, he is on the move for the Ravens' de facto starting running back.

HILL VALLEY ACQUIRES: WR DEVANTE PARKER
CARMEL ACQUIRES: RB LATAVIUS MURRAY

For the McFlys Parker fills an immediate need at WR, with CeeDee Lamb on bye- with the caveat being, if Parker is not healthy enough to go in week 7, they'll likely have to pivot to tight end CJ Uzomah. Parker, when healthy, has shown to be a dynamic receiving threat. Nursing shoulder and hamstring issues, he's more useful even in his compromised state than Latavius, who was unable to crack the lineup in Hill Valley even once.

Carmel sees their pair of stud running backs (Zeke Elliot & James Anderson) hit the bye week together, and at 2-4 cannot rest on their laurels. Their current plan appears to be stringing Murray and teammate Le'Veon Bell together, then perhaps keeping Murray on as a depth option. With a healthy group of wideouts on the roster, Parker had become a spare part for the Rudy-Toos.



Trade 4: Running Men

Our LBXII and LBXI champions linked up for a blockbuster involving a pair of (oft-injured) first round running backs! With the teams combining for a 3-9 record through six weeks, this deal has a chance to jumpstart (or doom) either season.

PAWNEE ACQUIRES: RB SAQUON BARKLEY & WR DEEBO SAMUEL
NEW JERSEY ACQUIRES: RB DALVIN COOK, RB ALEXANDER MATTISON, & WR MICHAEL THOMAS

At 1-5 the Pride are in the more immediate bind and decided that they could wait no longer for Michael Thomas' eventual return. Deebo Samuel is an immediate playmaker who should slot into a starting lineup on a team that boasts six quality receivers (when healthy) with the bonus that Deebo, unlike the other five options, has already had his bye week. In Saquon Pawnee is taking a major gamble- if his injury lingers or is exacerbated the depth at running back is not nearly as impressive, especially with Chris Carson on the shelf. That said, if Saquon can get back to premier form in week seven, you can squint your eyes at this roster and see a team capable of reeling off seven straight wins with a little bit of luck.

Jersey's straits are not as dire as Pawnee's but only just so; they will still need to win five or six times over the next seven weeks. Getting the Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison combination is a safeguard they lacked with Saquon, and with the Vikes on bye this week the Crew should be able to get by with a healthy Josh Jacobs and another week of Khalil Herbert at bellcow. 

The tradeoff here is that without Deebo, Jersey has to thrust Nelson Agholor or Zach Pascal (or, when healthy, Darius Slayton) into the flex position until Thomas can return to the field. None of the three players has produced a double digit score in over a month, and with Hollywood Brown and DK Metcalf set for upcoming bye weeks in games 8 and 9 respectively, that will further stretch a talent strapped receiving corps... but that's a tomorrow problem!

With today's deal will we see the floodgates open on the trade market? With the trade deadline set for November 20th, we have a month left to see teams torn their excess into gains. 

XIII: Week Six Results

The Treason continue their reign of terror, pushing their streak to six straight wins despite losing QB Russell Wilson and RB David Montgomery. THEY JUST DON'T CARE. Cole Holcomb leads a stingy defense while Mike Williams and Leonard Fournette have been late round money; The team has already matched its best win total in a decade and is showing no sign of slowing down.

Behind them, the Manitoba MooseCrew get back on the win wagon, crushing Phoenix (who see Mar-A-Lago next week) to keep the #2 spot. Three teams that missed the playoffs in 2020 sit at 4-2: Deputy, Philadelphia, and South Park; Meanwhile, three playoff teams from last year (Binghamton, HCM City, and Phoenix) sit even at 3-3, squabbling for that sixth playoff spot heading into the season's midpoint.

Currently out of the money are last year's champs, the Jersey Sanitation Crew, who have their two wins matched by Carmel, Hill Valley, and an off the schneid Savannah squad. in the pits are Ohio and Pawnee, both 1-5 and in need of a miraculous run to have a shot at the playoffs. 

Week 6 Matchups

 

TEAM OF THE WEEK SIX: LIGHTNING ROUND!

QB: KIRK COUSINS (OTB) 33.82

RB: DERRICK HENRY (DVH) 38.10

WR: CEEDEE LAMB (HVM) 35.40

TE: NOAH FANT (HCM) 24.70

DL: CAMERON HEYWARD (SPC) 19.50

LB: TJ WATT (MMC) 36.50

CB: TREVON DIGGS (BIN) 25.60

SS: TAYLOR RAPP (BIN) 26.05

PK: MATT PRATER (MAL) 15.00

We'll try to return to expanded coverage in week seven!

Monday, October 18, 2021

Trade 3: The QB Market

The trade market has been slow this season, with provocateur Phoenix involved in all three deals. This is the first deal that could be considered a blockbuster, with two fourth round picks getting exchanged.

PHOENIX ACQUIRES: QB JOSH ALLEN
SAVANNAH ACQUIRES: WR COREY DAVIS, RB DEVIN SINGLETARY, TE DAVID NJOKU

When the Petes drafted Patrick Mahomes in their first set of picks then Josh Allen in their second set of picks, it was clear that they'd be looking to make a trade in the early going. However, as the years have proven, the Quarterback market operates differently than other positions, where total points are not as indicative of value- there are generally multiple QBs on the wire scoring north of 20 points in a week, giving teams options they just don't have at other positions, undercutting the value of even a QB1 like Josh Allen. That Savannah had dropped four straight games after a season opening victory forced them to take the best deal they could get to save the season. 

Allen went 43rd overall, seven picks before WR Corey Davis, so the Petes get a WR2 in the deal, addressing an area of need; DeAndre Hopkins has been more of a WR2 than a WR3, and Odell Beckham just put together his first double digit score of the season in week five. Devin Singletary (119th overall) has been up and down this season, but will be in the starting RB slot more often than not, with retreads Jamaal Williams and James Conner hardly must-start starters. David Njoku, a tantalizing talent coming off a huge week four that prompted a Phoenix waiver claim. He disappointed in his first appearance with the Petes, although the team appears primed to defeat Pawnee regardless.

For the Uprising, their mediocre early season (destined for a 3-3 start barring a record setting 125 debut performance from Allen tonight) will have parallels drawn between the play of Ryan Tannehill, who was summarily dismissed following the deal. Allen will be on a bye following this week's game, so Phoenix will have to keep themselves over .500% without him in week six.




Thursday, October 14, 2021

Week 5: Rum Ham Drop Moose Crew

And then there was one!

The Mar-A-Lago Treason are the league's final undefeated team, as the .04 margin of victory that Manitoba held over Philadelphia was overruled, the result of a tackle by William Jackson (assisted by Daniel Sorensen) brings both teams to 4-1, jockeying for the #2 seed.

Here's the current hierarchy for the Larkspur Bowl heading into week six:



XIII: Week Five Results

Manitoba and Mar-A-Lago have both opened up a two game lead on the field as they push their undefeated records to five and oh; although, the Moose Crew will have to wait until Thursday to see if their .04 lead over the Rum Ham holds. If it does, both teams have the in-road to a bye week; they do not meet until the final week of the season, so, there's a chance we could see two 12-0 teams square off for the first undefeated season in league history. Still a couple of interceding months before we get there though.

The mess behind them will be clarified later this week:

Week 5 Matchups

 

TEAM OF THE WEEK FIVE: LIGHTNING ROUND!

QB: LAMAR JACKSON (BIN) 48.38

RB: JONATHAN TAYLOR (PRH) 36.30

WR: MIKE WILLIAMS (MAL) 40.00

TE: MARK ANDREWS (JSC) 39.60

DL: AARON DONALD (PAW) 20.50

LB: DE'VONDRE CAMPBELL (PAW) 22.15

CB: ANTHONY BROWN (PRH) 21.25

SS: KEVIN BYARD (OTB) 37.00

PK: GREG JOSEPH (HVM) 16.00

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

XIII: Week Four Results

A month in and some storylines are taking shape at the top and bottom:

Manitoba has had a pair of eight win seasons to their credit and won a playoff game in both of their appearances, so they have the grit- now, half way to matching their best win totals, their goal will subtly shift from securing a playoff spot to ensuring their roster is optimized for maximum postseason noise.

Mar-A-Lago has started strong before, only to sink into the mid-season murk and end up in the bottom third. This week's meek win was not encouraging to that point, but they have banked four victories already and their stocked roster has but a single weak point: The tight end. There's a bunch of those available on the wire, coming off big games.

Meanwhile, Pawnee and Hill Valley remain defeated, a combined 0-8 for two teams that have collectively appeared in six Larkspur Bowls, squaring off against each other in the fairly recent (but increasingly distant) past. This is not totally unprecedented- both squads missed the playoffs in 2017 and 2014, but to not have a single win between them could signal a changing of the guard.

In between a month of perfection and the utter lack of success, we have ten teams still trying to distinguish themselves. Philadelphia has won three straight to get to 3-1, their first time finishing September over .500 since 2016- that year they (as the Saskatoon Sasquatch) started 4-0 only to drop their next six games and finish 6-7. They'll look to avoid a similar fate this year.

Phoenix and South Park are both fortunate to sit at 3-1 despite ranking in the bottom five in total points to date. The Cows were due for some good fortune in this regard, after pacing the league in points in 2020 but settling for a ho-hum 6-7 record. Behind them Deputy and Carmel both win to even their records again, while Binghamton and HCM City sink back to .500; The Lead Farmers have hit the skids lately after a pair of inspiring victories to start the season.

Our defending Champs get on the board, the Sanitation crew notching a win to score even with Ohio and Savannah, each at 1-3. The Petes, 3-10 a year ago, have now dropped three straight and need to be cavalier about moving one of their elite quarterbacks for a marked upgrade to their lineup before their season slips away.

Week 4 Matchups

 

QB: PATRICK MAHOMES (SAV) 34.12
Another terrific performance from Mahomes, five touchdowns and over 300 total yards while his supporting cast lets him down. He's been worth the 15th overall pick thus far, but at 1-3 it's clear he cannot win alone.

RB: CORDARRELLE PATTERSON (PRH) 38.15
The Swiss-Army knife did most of his damage at his natural WR position, but his late-career (this is his 9th season!) transition to a 6'2" scatback has proved fruitful- especially this week, where he scored three touchdowns on 11 touches, for a total of 116 yards. 

WR: TYREEK HILL (MMC) 48.80
The game-breaker keeps breaking games, here catching 11 of 12 balls thrown his way for 186 yards and three flips into the paint. There's just no comparable deep threat in the game, a guy who can go over the top a dozen times a game and just have the defense unable to counteract him in anyway.

TE: DARREN WALLER (PAW) 15.70
With Knox (BIN), Cook (OTB), and Schultz (CRT) benched and Uzomah, Alie-Cox, and Maxx wire fodder, Waller gets the salute, catching four balls for 50 yards and a touchdown. The TE position is traditionally TD dependent, with needy teams chasing last week's points; Waller is one of the handful of guys who is always part of the game plan.

DL: QUINNEN WILLIAMS (MMC) 18.50
After a quiet couple of weeks, 2019's #3 overall pick has been blowing up offenses the last couple games, stuffing the stat sheet with seven tackles, a sack and a tackle for loss. Interior lineman can sometimes do a monstrous job without accruing numbers to show for it, but the elite talents usually figure out a way to get theirs. Williams is one of those.

LB: CJ MOSLEY (MMC) 22.50
Mosley was an upper echelon linebacker from 2014-2018 before a pair of lost seasons left him something of an enigma. Returning from injury (and an opt-out during the pandemic) he has picked up right where he left off as a tackle machine capable of swarming to make a play anywhere on the field.This week: 13 tackles and a sack.

CB: TREVON DIGGS (BIN) 25.15
What Diggs is doing this season is borderline insane. After snagging a pick in each of his first three games, he took two in his fourth, a pace that's unsustainable- not due to a lack of talent, but because pretty soon quarterbacks are going to stop throwing near him. 23 return yards, two more pass disruptions, and four tackles round out his line.

SS: QUANDRE DIGGS (PRH) 20.75
A converted cornerback that has now lost eligibility at the position, he's plenty capable of being a pure safety as evidenced by his seven tackles, two defensed passes, and pick. With double digit points in three of four contests, he's rounding out a very capable defense for the 3-1 HAM.

PK: TYLER BASS (OTB) 16.00
Eight kicks, eight balls through the uprights, four field goals and four PATS. That'll do, Bass.