DRAFT DAY 2016

The Draft is here! Some quick analysis:

The first round positional mix has always been RB dominant, as the position has the highest upside. We've seen a steady uptick in the number of WRs drafted with a team's top pick, and I expect to see that number climb this year, perhaps all the way up to eight!

• 2009: 12 RBS, 2 WRS
• 2010: 7 RBs, 4 QBs, 3 WRs
• 2011: 8 RBs, 3 QBs, 3 WRs
• 2012: 6 RBs, 5 QBs, 2 TE, 1 WR
• 2013: 11 RBs, 3 WRs
• 2014: 7 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 QBs, 1 TE
• 2015: 7 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 QBs, 1 DL

In 2015, JJ Watt was drafted thirteenth overall last season, the first time an IDP was selected in the first round- in fact, before that, the highest IDP selection had been Watt in the third round of the 2014 draft. Luke Kuechly went in the fourth round last year, while Lavonte David, Deandre Levy, and CJ Mosley went in the fifth. In all, 42 IDPs were drafted in the first twelve rounds, or just under 40% of the league's projected starters. With defensive stats tweaked upwards, I would guess that the number of IDPs selected in the first five rounds doubles to ten, while we see at least half of all starters (56) drafted in the first half of the night.

Three hundred and twenty two players will hear their names called tonight. We're likely to see around 180 offensive players selected, and around 125 defensive players selected. Lets extrapolate those numbers to include the top of the free agent pool and see where 2015's point totals (based on 2016's scoring and all 16 regular season games) tier off, disregarding positions.

OFFENSIVE PLAYERS:

• Top 25: 395.78 - 263.80
• 26-50: 260.18 - 222.90
• 51-75: 222.20 - 187.80
• 76-100: 187.60 - 160.20
• 101-125: 160.13 - 134.50
• 126-150: 133.23 - 112.40
• 151-175: 111.40 - 96.00
• 176-200: 94.55 - 83.10 

DEFENSIVE PLAYERS:

• Top 25: 288.73 - 197.45
• 26-50: 194.65 - 168.40
• 51-75: 166.00 - 149.95
• 76-100: 148.50 - 140.50
• 101-125: 140.50 - 132.55
• 126-150: 132.50 - 124.00

From this chart we can see that after the elite outliers at the top of the board, we see a difference of 25-35 points over the course of each subsequent tier, which basically approximates two rounds of the draft. The defensive players level off much more quickly after the top 60 or so players, with replacement level rating a backend starter (101) just 14.5 points better than wire fodder (150) which means- after the elite players (200+) and the quality starters (150-200) there's not a ton of value. On the offensive side of the ball there's a super-elite tier (260+) and a respectable sub-elite tier (220-260) before an array of starting caliber players that range from 220 down to 135. That's a huge difference, and likely to be where the biggest difference between good teams and bad teams come from. There will be a few 'surprise' elite players on both sides of the ball, but past those lottery tickets, each team is hoping their middle round turn up more 185-220 players than 135-185 guys. THAT'S THE TRICK.

Final point- kickers.
Last year Stephen Gostkowski led all kickers with 173.50 points. He was dominant- 13 more points (almost 1 per game) more than Graham Gano, and 21 points better than Josh Brown and the field. The 14th ranked kicker in the league was Dustin Hopkins at 128.50, which meant the best starter in the league averaged about three more points per game than the worst. That is sizable! Drafting a super-kicker at the right time will definitely give you an edge, but the point totals are dwarfed by other positions and results are almost entirely context dependent. Pick your kicker as you would like, but if you're considering a kicker before the last few rounds of the draft, you're probably considering a kicker too early.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYBODY DRAFTING TONIGHT!