2015 Draft-In-Review Part II

Lets make some quick and dirty takeaways from this post-season, post-draft evaluation:

1. Dropping one of your first ten picks can be catastrophic.
While cutting bait on some of these players was the right move, choosing them in the first place was problematic. While nobody has a crystal ball and hindsight is 20/20, the writing was on the wall for many of these guys- most should have been drafted later. Spending one of your first ten picks on a risk saps your roster of depth and combined with some unfortunate injuries, can sink your season completely.

2. Hype and Age are important considerations at draft time.
CJ Anderson was hyped after a big finish to 2014- but he has not shown the sustained high level production that you'd like in making a player your second overall pick - a cornerstone of your franchise. Flipside, Andre Johnson had plenty of track record- but the toll of time combined with a new offense left his role as something of an enigma. You don't need to avoid these guys necessarily (Latavius Murray and Larry Fitzgerald are both comps that worked out) but be ready with a quick trade trigger at first sign of trouble.

3. Don't drop one of your early picks unless you absolutely have to.
Russell Wilson ended up having a superb season, and the Lead Farmers did not have to drop him. It was season defining for two teams- HCM bottomed out while Pawnee addressed their offense's only question mark in spectacular fashion. While the QB Market is finicky, if your drop is going to be claimed, he has value. Early in the season, early draft picks have value simply because of their name and o-rank; You really need to move a toxic commodity before their value bottoms out completely- get something for them, perhaps even at a perceived 'loss.'

4. The first ten rounds are about establishing a floor. 
If you get ten players (barring injury) that are start worthy, you have given yourself a team that can compete. You'll probably need to be active in improving your roster, but generally you want to do that on the fringes- with the last couple of roster spots rather than plopping a tried and true alternative on the wire. Bye weeks eat at your depth, but is losing a contributor for the rest of the season is not worth a one week band-aid? Consider that long and hard before dropping a player.

Drops: Rounds 1-10

19. RB CJ Anderson - DVH

30. WR Andre Johnson - MAN

35. QB Russell Wilson - HCM

46. RB Andre Ellington - SPC

65. RB Joseph Randle - LTP

67. RB Ameer Abdullah - SPC

73. LB Curtis Lofton - SAV

79. WR Roddy White - OAK

81. QB Ryan Tannehill - LHT

83. RB Rashad Jennings - MAN

88. WR Marques Colston - LHT

89. TE Coby Fleener - ISL

103. WR Eddie Royal - DVH

104. WR Brandon LaFell - LTP

107. WR Kenny Stills - OAK

109. Nelson Agholder - LHT

110. LB Von Miller - PAW

120. FS Rashad Johnson - SAS

122. QB Robert Griffin - DVH

125. WR Charles Johnson - PHX

131. RB Jonas Gray - DVH

140. LB Kiko Alonso - HVM

4. Drafting the bulk of your IDPs at the back end of the draft is smart.
Sticking with them as long as they are productive is safe, and letting them go for a higher upside alternative is safe. Sometimes moves will have unforeseen consequences, but making the best decision with the information you have is the only way to play. Only sure-thing elite IDPs are worth early draft picks, or holding onto through injury or a couple of ineffective showings- and even then, an injury at the position can really undermine your team. When an elite offensive player goes down, the bulk of their volume is usually siphoned off to the 'next man up.' On defense that's not usually true- a stud LB or Safety is making plays, while their substitute is unlikely to replicate (or even approach) similar numbers.

5. Very few offensive difference makers are drafted this late in the game. 
Looking at this rough chart, I see thirteen offensive players that either stuck with their team for the duration, or were traded (or in the case of Donte Moncrief, were dropped by their original team, who then traded back for him.) which means 13 of the final 140 players selected were viable players from start to finish. There were 13 more defensive players of that number that proved valuable all season. 26 (plus kickers) of the final 140 picks were pivotal to their teams. That's not a high success rate.

6. Building off of point five: the back end of the draft is MOSTLY about ceiling. 
A few elite players will come out of these rounds, but mostly you're sifting through marginal talents. Really what you're looking for is breakout candidates that you can give a few weeks to, to see if they are part of their teams immediate plans. By the time bye weeks are coming up, you should have an idea of whether a player is ready to be productive. The wire will have steady plug and play options at most positions (except RB) week in and week out, so pick your spots and don't worry too much about roster spanning depth yet. It's a long season.

7. If you get offers on a breakout candidate, it's your best interest to hear it out. 
In the preseason there is a ton of tantalizing potential, and players' value can skyrocket before they're even on the field. Like buying a lottery ticket, the dream of scoring big for next to nothing is hard to divest from, but if a hyped late round pick is fetching offers, and you can gain some less exciting (but more dependable) talent, you need to at least consider it- you'll notice that several of these players were traded early (and opportunistically)in the long season- providing lasting worth to the drafting team.

Keeps: Round 13-23 (Non Kickers)

170. CB Patrick Peterson MAN (T)

171. WR Mohammed Sanu PAW (T)

175. LB Jelani Jenkins HCM

181. WR Michael Crabtree PHX (T)
184. LB Derrick Johnson PHX (T)
185. TE Antonio Gates SAV (T)
186. RB Duke Johnson SPC

191. SS Barry Church OAK

199. TE Dwayne Allen PAW (T)

204. WR Allen Hurns SAS
206. DE Calais Campbell DVH

210. FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix NYF
225. LB Eric Kendricks HVM

226. FS Devin McCourty MAN
229. RB Ryan Mathews ISL

230. CB Terence Newman OAK

237. CB Casey Hayward PHX (T)

243. SS Landon Collins DVH

261. RB Danny Woodhead LTP
268. LB Telvin Smith PHX

278. WR Cecil Shorts PAW (T)

294. WR Jermaine Kearse NYF (T)

296. RB Deangelo Williams PHX (T)

297. TE Ladarius Green SAV (T)
312. WR Donte Moncrief LHT

319. DT Aaron Donald SPC