Sunday, January 31, 2016

2015 Team Depth Charts

I've amassed the year's aggregate depth chart here:

Players in bold belong to the team column they're under.
The number before a player's name is the amount of games he was active for with the listed team.

Players belong to the team they finished the season with (as long as they played more than one game) Players with a green highlight only played a single game for their team, and would only be utilized for depth. Players with a yellow highlight were traded away from that team, and therefore are ineligible for that team's roster. Players in a pink highlight were eligible for the team in question, but were listed with another team for one of the above reasons. Orange highlight was to trim down kickers. Teams only need one kicker!

If we were to say, create our teams in Madden and play against each other, this would be the starting point for our rosters.




HERE IS A CLEANED UP VERSION, INCLUDING ONLY THE PLAYERS THAT WOULD BE UTILIZED ON A ROSTER:


2015 Draft-In-Review Part II

Lets make some quick and dirty takeaways from this post-season, post-draft evaluation:



1. Dropping one of your first ten picks can be catastrophic.
While cutting bait on some of these players was the right move, choosing them in the first place was problematic. While nobody has a crystal ball and hindsight is 20/20, the writing was on the wall for many of these guys- most should have been drafted later. Spending one of your first ten picks on a risk saps your roster of depth and combined with some unfortunate injuries, can sink your season completely.

2. Hype and Age are important considerations at draft time.
CJ Anderson was hyped after a big finish to 2014- but he has not shown the sustained high level production that you'd like in making a player your second overall pick - a cornerstone of your franchise. Flipside, Andre Johnson had plenty of track record- but the toll of time combined with a new offense left his role as something of an enigma. You don't need to avoid these guys necessarily (Latavius Murray and Larry Fitzgerald are both comps that worked out) but be ready with a quick trade trigger at first sign of trouble.

3. Don't drop one of your early picks unless you absolutely have to.
Russell Wilson ended up having a superb season, and the Lead Farmers did not have to drop him. It was season defining for two teams- HCM bottomed out while Pawnee addressed their offense's only question mark in spectacular fashion. While the QB Market is finicky, if your drop is going to be claimed, he has value. Early in the season, early draft picks have value simply because of their name and o-rank; You really need to move a toxic commodity before their value bottoms out completely- get something for them, perhaps even at a perceived 'loss.'

4. The first ten rounds are about establishing a floor. 
If you get ten players (barring injury) that are start worthy, you have given yourself a team that can compete. You'll probably need to be active in improving your roster, but generally you want to do that on the fringes- with the last couple of roster spots rather than plopping a tried and true alternative on the wire. Bye weeks eat at your depth, but is losing a contributor for the rest of the season is not worth a one week band-aid? Consider that long and hard before dropping a player.

Drops: Rounds 1-10
19. RB CJ Anderson - DVH
30. WR Andre Johnson - MAN
35. QB Russell Wilson - HCM
46. RB Andre Ellington - SPC
65. RB Joseph Randle - LTP
67. RB Ameer Abdullah - SPC
73. LB Curtis Lofton - SAV
79. WR Roddy White - OAK
81. QB Ryan Tannehill - LHT
83. RB Rashad Jennings - MAN
88. WR Marques Colston - LHT
89. TE Coby Fleener - ISL
103. WR Eddie Royal - DVH
104. WR Brandon LaFell - LTP
107. WR Kenny Stills - OAK
109. Nelson Agholder - LHT
110. LB Von Miller - PAW
120. FS Rashad Johnson - SAS
122. QB Robert Griffin - DVH
125. WR Charles Johnson - PHX
131. RB Jonas Gray - DVH
140. LB Kiko Alonso - HVM

4. Drafting the bulk of your IDPs at the back end of the draft is smart.
Sticking with them as long as they are productive is safe, and letting them go for a higher upside alternative is safe. Sometimes moves will have unforeseen consequences, but making the best decision with the information you have is the only way to play. Only sure-thing elite IDPs are worth early draft picks, or holding onto through injury or a couple of ineffective showings- and even then, an injury at the position can really undermine your team. When an elite offensive player goes down, the bulk of their volume is usually siphoned off to the 'next man up.' On defense that's not usually true- a stud LB or Safety is making plays, while their substitute is unlikely to replicate (or even approach) similar numbers.

5. Very few offensive difference makers are drafted this late in the game. 
Looking at this rough chart, I see thirteen offensive players that either stuck with their team for the duration, or were traded (or in the case of Donte Moncrief, were dropped by their original team, who then traded back for him.) which means 13 of the final 140 players selected were viable players from start to finish. There were 13 more defensive players of that number that proved valuable all season. 26 (plus kickers) of the final 140 picks were pivotal to their teams. That's not a high success rate.

6. Building off of point five: the back end of the draft is MOSTLY about ceiling. 
A few elite players will come out of these rounds, but mostly you're sifting through marginal talents. Really what you're looking for is breakout candidates that you can give a few weeks to, to see if they are part of their teams immediate plans. By the time bye weeks are coming up, you should have an idea of whether a player is ready to be productive. The wire will have steady plug and play options at most positions (except RB) week in and week out, so pick your spots and don't worry too much about roster spanning depth yet. It's a long season.

7. If you get offers on a breakout candidate, it's your best interest to hear it out. 
In the preseason there is a ton of tantalizing potential, and players' value can skyrocket before they're even on the field. Like buying a lottery ticket, the dream of scoring big for next to nothing is hard to divest from, but if a hyped late round pick is fetching offers, and you can gain some less exciting (but more dependable) talent, you need to at least consider it- you'll notice that several of these players were traded early (and opportunistically)in the long season- providing lasting worth to the drafting team.

Keeps: Round 13-23 (Non Kickers)
170. CB Patrick Peterson MAN (T)
171. WR Mohammed Sanu PAW (T)
175. LB Jelani Jenkins HCM
181. WR Michael Crabtree PHX (T)
184. LB Derrick Johnson PHX (T)
185. TE Antonio Gates SAV (T)
186. RB Duke Johnson SPC
191. SS Barry Church OAK
199. TE Dwayne Allen PAW (T)
204. WR Allen Hurns SAS
206. DE Calais Campbell DVH
210. FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix NYF
225. LB Eric Kendricks HVM
226. FS Devin McCourty MAN
229. RB Ryan Mathews ISL
230. CB Terence Newman OAK
237. CB Casey Hayward PHX (T)
243. SS Landon Collins DVH
261. RB Danny Woodhead LTP
268. LB Telvin Smith PHX
278. WR Cecil Shorts PAW (T)
294. WR Jermaine Kearse NYF (T)
296. RB Deangelo Williams PHX (T)
297. TE Ladarius Green SAV (T)
312. WR Donte Moncrief LHT
319. DT Aaron Donald SPC


2015 Draft-in-Review

We're going to examine how everyone's drafts turned out- not in absolute value (in terms of points) but in terms of perceived value; How 'rosterable' each team turned out.

Players marked in green finished the season with the same team they started with. 
These are the 'most valuable' players to their managers.

Players marked in yellow were traded from their original team for value. 
This is the second best result a drafted player could net, because it brought their manager something else of value.

Players marked in orange were dropped from their team, but ended up on other rosters.
Maybe due to injury, ineffectiveness, bye weeks, or depth, they ended up recycled.
Resurfacing on another team meant they retained value, even if the owner did not maximize it.

Players marked in red were dropped, and finished the year on the wire.
While there may be some contextual exceptions, most of these players can be labeled 'busts.'

Players marked in blue were substantially injured, hindering our ability to gauge their value.

Deputy Van Halens:
5 VALUABLE; 2 TRADED; 6 RECYCLED; 8 BUSTS; 2 INJURED
The VH suffered from a veritable bust in the second round (CJ Anderson) as any player in your top six picks needs to contribute, so dropping one of them is a real bad sign. Losing Kelvin Benjamin to injury before week one put this team behind the 8 ball, forcing them to trade their other top WRs to restock the cupboard. A couple of wasted picks in the mid rounds (notbaly RG3, Jacquian Williams, and Ray Rice) really cost this team the depth they would need, and ASJ's huge week one followed by a long injury stole a roster spot the team could have used. Most of the other IDP picks were fine- rolling over anything but the highest tier of talent is preferable.

HCM City Lead Farmers:
7 VALUABLE; 1 TRADED; 5 RECYCLED; 5 BUSTS; 5 INJURED
The biggest takeaway looking at this draft is sorta obvious: don't draft a QB in the third round and then drop him for nothing. Wilson took off in the back half of the year- when he was playing for Pawnee and leading them all the way to the Larkspur Bowl. Doug Baldwin as a mid round pick ended up doing the same thing- less predictably, but still a blow. There were two studs picked in the back half of this draft: Khalil Mack (who the Farmers let escape for nothing) and Andy Dalton, who got injured late in the year.
Hill Valley McFlys:
7 VALUABLE; 2 TRADED; 2 RECYCLED; 10 BUSTS; 2 INJURED
Nine great picks to start the draft- Hilton and Maclin were moved for Demaryius and Watkins (upgrades!) and Jamaal was a stud before going down injured (unavoidable!) and while the Alfred Morris pick hamstrung this team, it was one of those (unpredictable!) disappointments. It's in the back end of this draft where the failings happened, and a lot of it comes down to perceived value; The McFlys could have traded many of those red players, but held on to them too long. One player they didn't hold onto long enough was Dev Freeman, who became an MVP caliber player soon after leaving Hill Valley.
Revis Islanders:
11 VALUABLE; 0 TRADED; 6 RECYCLED; 5 BUSTS; 1 INJURED
The Islanders were the only team to keep double digit players- twelve of them, including Marshawn Lynch. Every one of those players approached or exceeded expectations, and the back end of this draft had several picks that contributed later in the year; "Can't keep everybody." If the team could have kept Michael Floyd and Jordan Reed, they'd have been better off, and while Mario Williams ended up a huge bust for being the third DL off the board, but that was one of 2015's surprises. The team could have benefited from trading their excess depth to address needs. Sometimes you move a player for only a marginal upgrade, rather than losing them for nothing.
Liberal Head Trauma:
3 VALUABLE; 4 TRADED; 8 RECYCLED; 6 BUSTS; 2 INJURED
This draft just didn't work out. Only three players survived the season for HT- and one of them (Moncrief) they dropped and had to trade to get back. Only Agholder and Spiller rate as true busts; Liberal sifted through sleepers and found a lot of guys that would be valuable eventually, as almost everyone drafted here ended up having value- most just ended up doing more for other teams. It is about knowing when to hold em, knowing when to fold em, and knowing when to leave a sleeper on the wire and fight the anxiety to pluck them prematurely.
Toronto LTP:
9 VALUABLE; 1 TRADED; 5 RECYCLED; 6 BUSTS; 2 INJURED
LTP had three absolute steals in this draft- Capitalizing on Tom Brady's uncertain status in the seventh round (and then moving Brees) Tyrann Mathieu in the twelfth (one of two elite safeties in 2015) and Danny Woodhead in the 19th. The Woodhead pick might have been the reason this team was a playoff team at all. Randle flamed out quickly and Forsett went down with an injury. Two years in a row Toronto has gone against the grain and eschewed the urge to amass RB depth, instead using his bench to work an optimal lineup week to week. Wallace is technically listed as 'valuable' but was barely flex worthy most of the season.
Manitoba Moosecrew:
9 VALUABLE; 1 TRADED; 3 RECYCLED; 6 BUSTS; 4 INJURED
Andre Johnson was not supposed to die like this, but he did. Besides a few weeks with touchdowns, the third round pick was a total bust. The rest of the Crew's first thirteen picks were pretty good- Jennings wasn't getting opportunities mid-season, thus the cut. Bowe was an unmitigated bust, and none of the other backend picks were stellar, but having a fungible back end is usually better than having it be rigid but mediocre.
New York's Finest:
9 VALUABLE; 4 TRADED; 3 RECYCLED; 2 BUSTS; 5 INJURED
The Finest put together an incredibly productive WR group on the cheap, and had one of the most consistent RB and LB platoons in the game, thus their 12-1 record. Actually, the only player on this list that could truly be considered a disappointment at their draft slot was Reggie Bush. Or maybe Aaron Rodgers? As the ninth most productive QB this year (behind luminary free agent Kirk Cousins!) he did not have the season anticipated from a first round selection. But that's mostly nitpicking.
Oakwood Drivers:
9 VALUABLE; 1 TRADED; 3 RECYCLED; 7 BUSTS; 3 INJURED
Well, injuries took a major toll here- Their season effectively ended when Bell got hurt, and Peyton Manning never really looked like Peyton Manning. Gio Bernard was a reach in the third, who ended up a pleasant surprise. If he had been taken in the fifth or later, it would have been an even better selection. Trading Julian Edelman at the right time was about the only good break Oakwood got- Roddy White's skills, already suspected of being gone, proved eroded. There's a lot of green in the middle of their draft, but very few difference makers- just a lot of safe, average guys, stability for the sake of it, limiting upside. The back end of this roster is a mess, though Nate Washington had a pretty good season elsewhere in the league.
Pawnee Pride:
7 VALUABLE; 6 TRADED; 2 RECYCLED; 6 BUSTS; 2 INJURED
Those first five picks were perfection, and the next five fetched a good amount of value on the market- the Pride really maximized their potential on the trade market in general this year. The backend of this draft wasn't anything special- mostly IDPs that the Pride was smart to grind through. It's a good thing to not get too nostalgic with your defensive players- only difference makers should be owed any allegiance.
Phoenix Uprising:
6 VALUABLE; 7 TRADED; 1 RECYCLED; 7 BUSTS; 2 INJURED
At the backend of the draft, taking advantage of positional inefficiencies can mask a dearth of top end point getters- Gronk was 30th in overall points, while Watt was 64th, but each was tops at their position. Lots of trades color the team from start to finish- not all of them worked out fortuitously, but none hurt the team either. Reshad Jones and Telvin Smith were two great IDP picks that also lent positional dominance. Charles Johnson, Bishop Sankey, and Tevin Coleman were all misses, while Alfred Blue and Denagelo Williams went on to value elsewhere, but riding the carousel was as productive as ever for Phoenix who ended up with two top six RBs in Dev Freeman and Lamar Miller.
Saskatoon Sasquatch:
9 VALUABLE; 0 TRADED; 5 RECYCLED; 6 BUSTS; 3 INJURED
This was a very solid draft, with twelve good picks in a row to start things off. Torrey Smith and Malcom Floyd profile better at flex rather than WR2 and WR3, but Antonio Brown can mask that, and Allen Hurns in the 15th made up some ground as well. No other real hits in the backend of the draft- Heath Miller was constantly the top option off the wire this season. If anything, this draft just might have been too safe in its late game, opting for veterans with limited ceilings over the boom/bust nature of unknowns.
Savannah Petes:
4 VALUABLE; 7 TRADED; 6 RECYCLED; 4 BUSTS; 2 INJURED
Very unfortunate draft that highlights the crippling nature of missing on early IDP picks. DeAndre Levy and Curtis Lofton were both failures in the 5 and 6 slot, leaving the roster bereft of the safer talents available in those early rounds. Luck and Dez both getting hurt left the team's cupboard bare, while Kuechly's concussion struggle early forced the team to sell him low. All but two of the team's top ten picks ended up missing significant time with pains- DeAndre Hokpins a glowing exception in his breakout year. Shane Vereen would have been an okay plug and play third option, but was miscast in a feature role. The backend of the draft was decent, but a lot of that value got flushed by the team's injuries, as they needed to reach into the discard pile time and time again.
South Park Cows:
9 VALUABLE; 1 TRADED; 3 RECYCLED; 8 BUSTS; 2 INJURED
The champs had a very good draft- the best pick was probably their last, Aaron Donald, who was nearly JJ Watt, except 303 picks later. It's pretty impressive that the team picked three RBs in the first five rounds, and all of them disappointed pretty thoroughly. Jeremy Hill really struggled midseason and never really made good on his first round pedigree. Andre Ellington and Ameer Abdullah both bottomed out and were dropped outright. 14th round selection Duke Johnson was a nice contributor, though he could hardly be mistaken for elite. The Cows had a great WR corps, cashed in on waiting for a QB, made a shrewd grab at TE, cultivated a defense, and just got by at RB, on their way to winning the trophy. Might be the blueprint for 2016!

Friday, January 1, 2016

All-Larkspur Team 2015

2015's Finest Performances:



Team by team breakdown:

Phoenix: (5/0)
RB Devonta Freeman
TE Rob Gronkowski
DL JJ Watt
LB Telvin Smith
SS Reshad Jones

Saskatoon: (3/0)
WR Antonio Brown

LB Lavonte David
LB D'Qwell Jackson

Manitoba: (2/1)
RB Adrian Peterson

WR Brandon Marshall
DL Khalil Mack (ALT)

Hill Valley: (2/0)
QB Cam Newton

CB Josh Norman

Toronto: (1/2)
FS Tyrann Mathieu
QB Tom Brady (ALT)
CB Trumaine Johnson (ALT)

South Park: (1/0)
WR Julio Jones

Pawnee: (1/0)
WR Odell Beckham

Liberal: (1/0)
CB Marcus Peters

Oakwood: (1/0)
K Stephen Gostkowski

HCM City: (0/2)
WR Allen Robinson (ALT)
FS Malcolm Jenkins (ALT)

Savannah: (0/1)
WR DeAndre Hopkins (ALT)

Islanders: (0/1)
LB Paul Posluszny (ALT)

New York: (0/1)
LB Luke Kuechly (ALT)

Deputy: (0/1)
RB DeAngelo Williams (ALT)