2015 Prep Analysis

Heading into the 2015 season, the Larkspur Bowl is announcing some rule tweaks, and the ramifications they might have upon the game. I've altered them a bit from the initial announcement, so make sure to read the following. The changes will be in BOLD, if you'd prefer to skip the analysis.

"Game Changer" Bonus
40+ yard completion = 1pts
40+ yard reception = 2pts

40+ yard rush = 3pts

This bonus will go to any offensive player that breaks a big play- already gaining points for the play itself, extra points will be applied to better reflect the major swing in momentum that a big play can represent- these points will stack with standard scoring. Defensive players have long held the advantage of having the potential for game deciding plays, with pick sixes second only to return TDs for having the most singular influence on the game. This bonus should allow offensive players to have more 'Hail Mary' potential.

At quarterback, three players tied for the most 'game changer' points last year.
Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger all had fifteen completions of 40+ yards, which obviously dials in at an average of just under 1.0 points per game. Six more QBs amassed double digit Game Changer bonuses: Peyton Manning and Matt Stafford had 11, while Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Brian Hoyer (!?) had ten apiece. Philip Rivers had nine. Everyone else had eight or less, meaning the best laser rocket arms in the game are probably going to net you about .5 more per game than the average Larkspur Bowl starter. A minor boost, but nothing truly game changing about the game changer bonus- QBs need more than a few deep passes to put their finger prints on a W.

Among receivers, 40+ yard receptions had a clear leader. DeSean Jackson had 13 game changers, which would mean a boon of 26 points under the new rules. That would be 1.63 additional points over 16 games. He only played 15 though, so it's 1.73 on average, helping to push him into WR2 territory. After DeSean, Jordy Nelson and DeMaryius Thomas had eight and seven, respectively, about one additional point per game. Odell Beckham had six in twelve games, which would put him on pace for one additional ppg as well. He's one of six that had six; five had five, and ten had four. It's a fairly rare thing to do, but the best play makers in the game will be able to score some game changing points a few times per season.

The league leaders in 40+ yard rushes only had three of them-

DeMarco Murray, Justin Forsett, Arian Foster, and Jeremy Hill each had three over the course of the season, along with QB Russel Wilson. At three bonus points per rush, you're looking at less than a point per game... but busting a long run and scoring three additional points (along with the carry, yardage, and potential TD points) could definitely be a deciding factor in a game.

"Chain-Moving" Bonus
Rushing 1st down = .3 pts
Receiving 1st down = .3 pts

Yahoo! has implemented a first down category that should give offensive players a higher ceiling- workhorse RBs and possession WRs/TEs will be able to stabilize an offense better with their chain-moving abilities. Each time a player gains a new set of downs, they will score .3 points; Quarterbacks will not get points for throwing first downs, but will get the points for rushing for them.

The best chain-movers last year were RB Leveon Bell (73 rushes + 16 receptions =  34.2pts) RB Demarco Murray (85 rushes + 16 receptions = 30.3pts )  RB Matt Forte (63 rushes + 28 receptions = 27.3pts) and WR Antonio Brown (85 receptions = 25.5) so we're looking at the best chain movers getting an additional 1.5-2.1 points per game. These are stacking bonuses (You're getting points for the carry, yardage, and first down or the catch, yardage, and first down) so that means players heavily involved in their offense are more productive, and players that are chipping in are netting more substantial scores. We'll see this bonus have more impact at RB2, WR3, TE, and Flex positions, where quality depth will be less TD dependent than it has been in the past.

Furthermore, more versatile weapons will be more valuable commodities: RBs that can catch are an obvious asset, but quarterbacks that can run will be represented more accurately (read: dangerously) in Larkspur Bowl play going forward: Cam Newton and Russel Wilson both ran for 45 first downs last year- that's nearly a point per game tacked onto their average. Colin Kaepernick and Blake Bortles had 28 and 27 first downs, respectively, while six other quarterbacks were able scramble at least 17 times to add half a point on their per game average: Dalton 21, Rodgers 20, Luck 19, G. Smith 18, Tannehill 18, and Flacco 17 would all be gaining a decent boost under the new rules. Finally, a couple of gadget WRs were able to rush for double digit first downs- Tavon Austin and Percy Harvin each had 11. Along with their reception and return capabilities, this species of player should be a more vaunted weapon in 2015, with multiple ways to score points.

Two Point Conversions
Conversion = 2pts

This is not a Larkspur Bowl change- conversions have been worth 2 pts in the league for years.
However, with the NFL adopting new rules, these plays may gain an added prominence in certain offenses. If certain teams are more willing to 'go for it' in non traditional situations, their players will have a distinct impact on Larkspur Bowl results.

Player Impact:
These changes could have a pretty dramatic impact on offensive players' output. One of the players that will benefit most is QB Russel Wilson. He scored 295.7 last year for Manitoba, a solid output that put him firmly in QB2 territory. With the bonuses for game changing and first downs attributed to last year's stats, Wilson's score rises to 326.5- making him the #3 QB in the Larkspur Bowl. 

These changes should raise offensive players' floors, making it more manageable to field a starting offensive lineup that can be counted on for competitive production. In past years, the backend of the offense has been a challenge, while defensive players, especially safeties and linebackers, could be counted on for steady numbers. There should be less zeroes on the offense this year.

This will also shrink defensive players' ceiling a bit- even though there are no alterations on the defensive side of the ball, offensive player's increased potential will mean fewer games decided by the defense. Defense can still win championships of course- they just won't be as dominant as they had grown in the past few years. Analysis of the top scorers will show where the upper tier of defensive players rank, using last year's stats and this year's scoring:

1	RB L. Bell	406.2			RD1
2	RB D. Murray	390.6
3	WR A.Brown	374.98
4	QB Rodgers	362.14
5	QB Luck	353.24
6	RB Forte	348.5
7	WR D. Thomas	333.1
8	WR J Nelson	327.2
9	QB R. Wilson	326.5
10	RB M. Lynch	324.6
11	QB P. Manning	324.38
12	QB Roethlisberger	312.78
13	WR D. Bryant	307
14	RB A. Foster	305.7
15	QB Brees	299.28			RD2
16	RB Lacy	297.2
17	WR Beckham Jr	296.08		DE Watt	296.75
18	WR E. Sanders	291.83
19	WR J. Jones	290.3
20	WR R. Cobb	283.9
21	WR Maclin	283.73
22	QB Brady	281.86
23	QB Ryan	273.86
24	RB Forsett	272.7
25	RB J. Charles	268
26	QB Flacco	263.34
27	QB Tannehill	262.9
28	WR Hilton	261.4			RD3
29	QB Romo	259.9
30	QB E. Manning	259.8
31	QB Rivers	249.84
32	TE Gronkowski	248.4
33	WR Jeffrey	247.5
34	WR G. Tate	246.3
35	RB J. Hill	245.5
36	RB L. Miller	243.6
37	WR M. Evans	241.9
38	RB L. McCoy	237.7
39	QB J. Cutler	234.58
40	WR D. Hopkins	231.1
41	QB C. Newton	230.88
42	QB Stafford	228.68			RD4
43	WR D. Jackson	227.8
44	RB C. Anderson	226.7
45	QB Kaepernick	224.46
46	WR C. Johnson	223.9
47	QB A. Dalton	221.42
48	WR Edelman	218.88
49	RB J. Bell	216.1
50	RB A. Morris	215.7
51	WR K. Benjamin	213.1
52	WR S. Smith	210
53	TE J. Graham	207.6
54	RB M. Ingram	207.1
55	RB G. Bernard	201.7		LB Levy	205.65
56	TE Gates	201.3			RD5
57	WR Boldin	199.9
58	TE G. Olsen	199.1		LB Kuechly	199.5
59	WR Wallace	199
60	WR A. Green	197.3
61	QB A. Smith	196.7
62	WR LaFell	196.3
63	RB Asiata	196.28
64	RB Gore	196.2
65	WR Watkins	195.6
66	TE Bennett	192.5		LB L. David	195
67	WR Decker	190.3		LB Houston	192
68	WR R. White	189.8
69	RB Ellington	188.4
70	WR J. Mathews	188.3			RD6
71	WR J. Landry	187.45
72	WR T. Smith	183.6
73	QB D Carr	181.6
74	RB F. Jackson	180.93
75	WR B. Marshall	177.4		S H. Smith	180.5
76	QB Fitzpatrick	176.32		LB Mosely	179.95
77	WR Sanu	173.96		LB Ogletree	174.7
78	WR V. Jackson	173.7
79	WR E. Royal	173.5
80	RB Ivory	173
81	WR Stills	172.1
82	RB Sproles	171.83
83	WR Randle	171.7
84	TE Fleener	171.4			RD7
85	WR Ma. Floyd	171.3
86	RB A. Williams	168.1		LB D. Jackson	170.75
87	WR Mi. Floyd	167.6		LB B. Marshall	168.5
88	RB J. Stewart	166.7		LB Collins	166.65
89	WR Colston	166.7		S R. Johnson	166.3
90	WR A. Johnson	166.3
91	TE Kelce	162.2		S Woodson	162.45
92	RB Vereen	162.1		CB Haden	161.7
93	WR Baldwin	162.08
94	TE Walker	161.7
95	RB S. Jackson	160.4		CB Talib	160.6
96	QB Bridgewater	160.36		DE Pierre-Paul	160
97	RB B. Oliver	159.15		S McDonald	159.65
98	WR K. Allen	159.08		S Jenkins	158.85
99	RB T. Mason	157.7		S Bethea	158.55
100	QB K Orton	156.42		LB C. Matthews	156
101				S M. Adams	155.7

So, as we see, superhuman JJ Watt is on par with an early second round selection in terms of absolute points- though he is still unparalleled in terms of comparative advantage outscoring the next player at his position by 136 points. Other than him, we're seeing elite linebackers score like early fifth round picks, and the best safety score like a sixth round pick. Positional rankings matter- but the bulk of the scoring will be done by offensive players.