Covid-19 Part Deus

 Another day, another disruption!

The Patriots and Chiefs are potentially postponed this week, barring another round of tests. Teams should treat their Patriots and Chiefs as having a 'questionable' tag- game time decisions. The safest route is to replace them and leave them on your bench, but if you chance playing them you live with that decision.

Our expectation is that if the game happens on Tuesday (or even as late as Wednesday!) it would still count for the current week. If the game is postponed beyond this week, the expectation is that week four would become the players' BYE week, with the schedule shuffled as it was for the Titans and Steelers.

The more COVID-19 disruptions occur, the more the season will be scrambled. We're going to roll with the punches and do the best we can to have a competitive season, but things are beyond our control, in life and in fantasy football.

Covid-19 PPD

Well we have our first substantial COVID-19 impact on the season:

The expectation is that this week will be treated as a bye for Titans and Steelers, so make alternative plans to cover their positions. It is unlikely any of these players will receive IR designation (if they are not already on injured reserve) so teams should prepare accordingly. 

I anticipate that the schedules will be tweaked, and the Titans' week 7 bye and the Steelers' week 8 bye will both be replaced with games... but stand by for more information.

Trade 3: Cellar Dweller Bottom Feeders

Currently down on their luck Phoenix (#13) and Carmel (#14) linked up for a deal today. After several rounds of negotiations, it's a two for two deal that exchanges skill position players, with Phoenix dealing from their abundance of primary ball carriers and Carmel in need of bellcows.

PHOENIX ACQUIRES WR JARVIS LANDRY & WR BRANDIN COOKS

CARMEL ACQUIRES WR PRESTON WILLIAMS & RB MIKE DAVIS

The Uprising acquire the two bigger names in the deal, with Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks both considered star playmakers. However neither player is off to an auspicious start, with Landry looking more like a possession receiver than anything else, while Brandin Cooks is coming off an injury plagued down year, while entering a new offense. Obviously the Uprising imagine better days ahead for both players, but this has become a bloated receiver group of potentially past their prime names (Odell Beckham, Desean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Mohammed Sanu) and unproven youngsters (DJ Chark, Henry Ruggs, and Tee Higgins) that will need to be trimmed down once all players are healthy, as nine receivers is completely untenable- especially as the team still has four running backs (David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, and Devonta Freeman) two tight ends (Noah Fant and OJ Howard).

With as unfortunate a start to the season as can be imagined, the Rudy-Toos has shifted into survival mode as they need to approach each week as a must win. Mike Davis has shone that with opportunity he can be a must start feature back; For at least two more weeks, that role is his. Whenever CMC pushes him back to the bench, Carmel will deal with that as it comes. Meanwhile, they deal safer bets at WR to gamble on a young speed/size prospect in Preston Williams who had a nice debut as an undrafted rookie in 2019 and figures to gain more of a role as the year goes on. With nothing to fall back on Carmel is gambling, but that's the hand they were dealt- better to play it than fold it up and attempt to lose modestly.

XII: Week Three Recap

The Moose Stands Alone.

A year after willingly taking a step back from Larkspur Bowl XI competition (only to dominate the B-Division in kind) Manitoba has risen to the top of the pile after three weeks of action. They're not tops in points, but that's secondary to wins, and with three of them following an indisputable thrashing of New Jersey, the control their fate through the remaining nine weeks. Meanwhile, Carmel is at the bottom of the pile, 0-3 and second worst in points, ahead of only the very fortunate to be 2-1 Hill Valley McFlys.

Still plenty of season left... assuming that the recent outbreak in Nashville is not the start of a more expansive outbreak. Week three could still see an adjustment with less than five points separating the BIN over CRT result and the PAW over PRH results.

RESULTS

Week 3 Matchups

 

• Phoenix Uprising197.10Deputy Van Halens216.68
  FinalRecap
• Binghamton Snipers194.62Carmel RudyTuesdays190.82
  FinalRecap
• Hill Valley McFlys198.28Tommy’s Boys176.60
  FinalRecap
• HoChiMinhLeadFarmers262.14South Park Cows192.40
  FinalRecap
• Mar-a-Lago Grabbers189.48Savannah Petes182.54
  FinalRecap
• South Philly Rum Ham197.52Pawnee Pride201.48
  FinalRecap
• NJ Sanitation Crew166.50Manitoba Moosecrew227.86
  FinalRecap

POWER OUTPUT

1. HCM 262: Josh Allen is on the early shortlist for LB XII MVP as the Lead Farmers have looked terrific in back to back weeks. Rex Burkhead should not be counted on for too many more 3 TD performances, so finding a credible RB2 looks to be a priority in HCM City.
2. MMC 228: Manitoba has won more definitively every week despite getting less out of Lamar Jackson each time. The running backs an receivers do not blow you away, but if they keep getting the job done they don't need to. Miek Hilton and the D are carrying a lot of water for the North.
3. DVH 217: The Van Halen starters have scored very well in the early going, but the team will face questions about their bench depth when the bye weeks and injuries start; There's upside, but not a lot of inspiring plug-and-play options among the backups, so that will be tested.
4. PAW 201: Steady work on the offensive side has gotten the team off to a 2-1 start, taking some pressure off a volatile defense. Chandler Jones has been very quiet so far, if his motor gets running and the sacks come, the Pride's effective yearly blueprint will be hitting on all cylinders. 
5. HVM 198: Despite a rash of injuries the McFlys keep their head over water and bounce back following a horrific week two. If the team moves on from Carson Wentz, their pivot- (to streaming or to another answer) will likely define their season. 
6. PRH 198: Hard luck losers, the Rum Ham will be rooting for an adjustment to push them ahead of the defending champs. Eric Ebron on the bench hurts here, but the team was never going to tap Andy Isabella over Julian Edelman, so they can shrug off that decision.
7. PHX 197: Mahomes gave it his all, but could not overcome a deficit marked by lots of bench points wasted. The Uprising have a glut of good options at RB but are struggling with injuries at wideout. Expect another deal in Phoenix before week four begins.
8. BIN 195: Kamara runs wild but the receiving corps is in shambles- John Brown with a goose egg, and Chris Godwin going down with injury after briefly shining bright like a diamond. With Rookie Joe Burrow in the wings perhaps we see Matty Ice head to Philly and Rodgers spun off.
9. SPC 192: The Cows got ample production from their workhorses at RB and WR but little at QB, TE, and Defense. That's usually some bad luck and much easier to solve with wire adds instead of blockbusters, so expect South Park to bounce back handily. 
10. CRT 191: Barring a reversal of fortune in their week 3 result, the hard luck Rudy-Toos drop to 0-3. The defense is good, but outside of DK Metcalf and a depleted Drew Brees, the team just lacks starpower on offense right now; There's no one that scares you.
11. MAL 189: Despite dropping over 100 points from last week's output, Mar-A-Lago grabs a win barring a major reversal. Chase Young going down early kept this close- Aldon Smith's redemption arc gives the team a ready-made replacement headed into week four.
12. SAV 183: Myles Garrett and Harrison Smith did what they could, but the rest of the defense was shredded in a matchup that was ripe for the taking. Adrian Peterson has filled in respectably for CMC, but the team needs to find a way to tread water until their top pick is healthy again.
13. OTB 177: The Tommy Boys drop from the top spot in precipitous fashion, as the only one doing less for them than their swiss cheese defense was TE Irv Smith who has shown no reason to be rostered through three weeks- much less starting. Plenty of good TE depth on the wire!
14. JSC 167: Yikes. There's a bit of consolation when your team drops a dud and the game was never winnable- but the Sanitation Crew really missed Davante Adams here, as Stefon Diggs just had no downfield help, the other four WR/TE options all scoring between 4.6 and 6.5 in this one.

TEAM OF THE WEEK

• QB PATRICK MAHOMES (44.00) - PHX
• RB ALVIN KAMARA (44.60) - BIN
• WR TYLER LOCKETT (37.30) - HCM
• TE TRAVIS KELCE (13.20) - MMC
• DT AARON DONALD (26.00) - HVM
• LB SHAQUIL BARRETT (28.00) - PAW
• CB JEFF OKUDAH (25.80) - BIN
• SS HARRISON SMITH (23.30) - SAV
• PK MASON CROSBY (16.00) - HVM

UPCOMING MATCHUPS

Should we get a full week of football this week, we'll be a month in: 33% of the regular season. Bye weeks start in earnest week five and will provide a depth challenging wrinkle to matchups as some of the sting of injuries has been mitigated by the additional IR slots to date. 

Trade 2: TraDe D'fined

 After counters back and forth prior to week two, South Park and Phoenix finalized a deal today.

• SOUTH PARK ACQUIRES RB D'ANDRE SWIFT
• PHOENIX ACQUIRES WR DeSEAN JACKSON

The Cows proposed this deal last week after declining deals for Chris Thompson and Tarik Cohen. Now those two guys are on the street, replaced by Devonta Freeman and Mike Davis in Phoenix, apparently rendering rookie D'Andre Swift expendable. It's selling low for the Uprising, who took Swift in the 9th round, 86 picks before DeSean Jackson was selected.

The Cows should not have to press Swift into immediate duty, letting him develop a role behind Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, and Myles Gaskin. It's a smart investment in their future that could prove tremendous later in the season.

The Uprising gain veteran WR depth in DeSean Jackson, who has seen plenty of targets in the first two weeks of the season- but has little to show for it. With DJ Chark (3rd year), Preston Williams (2nd year), and Henry Ruggs (1st year) all starting relatively slow, Phoenix will look to the historically boom/bust sparkplug for... stability. 

Trade 1: Desperate Measures

The Carmel Rudy-Toos had a tragic first eight days of the season, losing Marlon Mack for the season in week one, and Saquon Barkley and Courtland Sutton joining him on long term IR week two. With Raheem Mostert also down for a measure, Carmel's cupboard was suddenly very bare and they made clear their intention to actively crash the trade block.

And they did! While Carmel may have been able to extract more value if they had played it slow, their rapid reaction does score them the salve they need to stop the bleeding.

• CARMEL ACQUIRES RB JERICK McKINNON & WR JARVIS LANDRY
• HILL VALLEY ACQUIRES WR AMARI COOPER

RB Jerick McKinnon was a rising star a few years ago, but a torn ACL short circuited his ascent. Now fully recovered and electric in limited play, he gets an opportunity for a huge influx of touches with Mostert and Coleman both hobbled. Striking quickly Carmel gets McKinnon before his media hype train could get out of the station- could prove to be a very shrewd move.

Jarvis Landry is a downgrade from Amari Cooper, but has a healthy floor with dependable volume underneath, with a propensity for big plays and a the occasional lightning strike on the punt return team. Hill Valley deals from the bottom of their depth chart while upgrading their receiving corps, exactly the sort of score that a winning franchise makes: Julio, Amari, AJ Brown, and Jerry Jeudy are in he early conversation for the best receiving quartet in the league.

XII: Week Two Recap

Only two undefeated teams remain: the Ohio Tommy Boys and the Manitoba Moose Crew. Each team has had a fortuitous schedule (seeing the fewest points against over the first two games) with the Moose being benefitting from some impeccable timing- they're third from the bottom in points for, but have banked two wins. Their week two result against Binghamton could still be contested through Thursday- just 2.24 points separate them, so stat corrections are very much in play. A reversal would launch the Snipers to the #2 spot, while Manitoba would be mired at #10.

Meanwhile HCM City and Carmel are winless, having faced tough competition but also lacking firepower- injuries take some of the blame, but both squads will have to reload quickly to avoid falling behind. The Lead Farmers still have a chance on stat corrections, as their week two loss to Savannah was decided by just 2.66 points. A win would bump HCM to 10th or 11th, while Savannah would drop into 13th.

Everyone else is essentially where they were two weeks ago, even at 1-1 and looking to get some momentum going. Mar-A-Lago, after a woeful week one, erupted for 290.48 points, fourth best of all time. This morning we also saw our first trade go down; expect more in the near future as draft day dreams begin to fall apart and contingency plans get their number called.

RESULTS

Week 2 Matchups

 

• Phoenix Uprising200.08Carmel RudyTuesdays187.33
  FinalRecap
• Binghamton Snipers192.42Manitoba Moosecrew194.66
  FinalRecap
• Deputy Van Halens193.78Tommy’s Boys203.82
  FinalRecap
• Hill Valley McFlys133.76South Park Cows225.34
  FinalRecap
• HoChiMinhLeadFarmers226.93Savannah Petes229.59
  FinalRecap
• Mar-a-Lago Grabbers290.48Pawnee Pride183.23
  FinalRecap
• South Philly Rum Ham244.15NJ Sanitation Crew199.44
  FinalRecap

POWER OUTPUT

1. MAL 290: Arriving a week late, the Grabbers took this one by force, badly embarrassing the defending champs. Everyone score well in this one- and with the team mostly unscathed by injuries, they'll look to build on this as they seek their first playoff since 2011.
2. PRH 245: Another team that shrugged off a poor week one, the Rum Ham show that they belong in the big leagues, winning despite their one man mismatch George Kittle shelved. Perhaps moving on from Matty Ice and turning to Aaron Nice was the change they needs all along.
3. SAV 230: The Petes have to hold their breath for a few days to keep this win notched. They need it, as they'll be missing top pick CMC for several weeks and will rely on the eternal Adrian Peterson in his stead. Will they stream at QB or stick through Dimes' growing pains?
4. HCM 227: Hard luck losing seems like a theme for the Lead Farmers, who shined brightly in this one- QB Josh Allen is looking like a 2015 vintage of Cam Newton, and last night Darren Waller made a compelling case as the best TE in the game.
5. SPC 225: The Cows win a no doubter here with their offense firing on all cylinders and their linebacking corps doing dirty work. QB fluidity has been a hallmark of South Park's continued excellence- wasn't optimal here, but their willingness to play matchups sets them apart.
6. OTB 204: Russell Wilson and Tommy Boys can rest assured their 2-0 record stays intact, winning by 10 over the capable Van Halens despite Michael Thomas missing the game. TE remains a work in progress, but the defense was formidable here and should remain so.
7. PHX 200: The Uprising even their record by playing to their floor again; The defense was lackluster this time, but an outburst from RB David Montgomery provided the margin here. The team is looking for off the street free agents Dev Freeman and Mo Sanu to produce soon.
8. JSC 199: A quality performance in a loss saw Stefon Diggs step in for a hobbled Davante Adams and show he's still got WR1 chops. This is a very potent offense that left a lot of points on the bench- don't sleep on the Sanitation Crew.
9. MMC 195: If this result falters the Moose will blame waiver claim Benny Snell Jr who did less than nothing, scoring -.1 while Leonard Fournette sat on the bench. If Manitoba holds the win they dodge a bullet and will not make that mistake again.
10. DVH 194: Injures to Nick Bosa and Parris Campbell probably doomed a bid for a 2-0 Deputy squad, who are also getting a 2015 Cam Newton performance from the OG. The rest of the team did fine, just not enough to secure the win in week two.
11. BIN 192: A hard knock loss made all the tougher by the multitude of points left on the bench. Even if the Snipers do not will on reversal they should take heart in that depth paying dividends over the course of the season. Chris Godwin expect to return from concussion next week!
12. CRT 187: The Rudy-Toos did very well considering a pair of key players went down for the year (Saquon & Sutton) while Raheem Mostert may have had even more if he hadn't been hobbled as well. Outside of TJ Watt and James Bradberry the D scuffled pretty hard here.
13. PAW 183: The Pride plummeted to earth in this one despite landing a pair of players on the TOTW; Stocked with high upside/unproven prospects and past their prime veterans came up light this time- perhaps a silver lining in a blowout, to "save" points for next week.
14. HVM 134: This god awful performance would have benefitted from a swap at running back, where the bench thoroughly outproduced the starters. Still would have placed 14th and been smoked. Expect the McFlys to bounce back capably from this atrocity.

TEAM-OF-THE-WEEK

• QB DAK PRESCOTT (42.80) - MAL
• RB AARON JONES (50.10) - SAV
• WR STEFON DIGGS (30.80) - JSC
• TE TYLER HIGBEE (27.10) - PAW
• DE JJ WATT (18.00) - PHX
• LB DE'VONDRE CAMPBELL (25.00) - PRH
• CB MIKE HILTON (27.40) - MMC
• SS JUSTIN SIMMONS (27.85) - HCM
• PK YOUNGHOE KOO (17.00) - PAW

UPCOMING MATCHUPS

Too early to draw too many conclusions, but the injury report is certainly piling up; Early selling and buying is bound to line up each team's fate, with September decisions making and breaking December aspirations. Too hasty and you might blow an opportunity, too hesitant and you might miss it. THAT'S WHY WE PLAY THE GAME.