Friday, October 28, 2016

Trade 13: Bye-Contextual

Trade thirteen went down today, with just over two weeks remaining before the trade deadline. Saskatoon was in desperate need of a running back this week, and depth going forward; Hill Valley has multiple bye weeks upcoming, facilitating a need for depth in their WR corps.



SASKATOON ACQUIRES:
  • RB Gio Bernard
HILL VALLEY ACQUIRES:
  • WR Michael Thomas
Gio Bernard gives the Sasquatch an option to pair with Ryan Mathews this week, which is much better than their previous option- which was not an option at all, but a blank space. The RB has a high ceiling, but something of a low floor, considering his timeshare context and week to week variance. Once Terrance West is off of his bye week, the team will need to make a weekly decision on which two running backs they want to deploy, assuming all three can stay healthy down the stretch. With Jordan Reed, Will Fuller, and Donte Moncrief all expected to return to action this week in support of Julio Jones, the team felt confident moving their rookie wunderkind Thomas following a ten catch, 130 yard breakout performance.

Breakout is sort of a misnomer; Thomas has been a stud for over a month, and has put up healthy numbers in all six of his games, really showing linear progression and accumulating healthy target volume on a regular basis. WR was already a strength for the McFlys, but a brutal amount of week 10 byes figures to necessitate another move as Hill Valley jockeys for a playoff spot following a two year absence. Look for Amari Cooper or Golden Tate to be on the move for RB or TE help in the near future, as Antonio Brown, Jeremy Maclin, and a rejuvenated Corey Coleman should provide ample receiving options, enabling the McFlys to move one of the high caliber wideouts in the near future.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Trade 12: On the Hop

Mark Ingram turned out to be a means to an end for Pawnee; Five days after acquiring the RB for Anquan Boldin and Terrance West, they've shipped him to Malibu for WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Deadbeats, reeling from the sudden retirement of Arian Foster and tired of Hopkins only catching a shade over half of his targets sent their 7th overall pick to Pawnee for the 27th overall pick nee Saskatoon.



MALIBU ACQUIRES:
  • RB MARK INGRAM
PAWNEE ACQUIRES:
  • WR DeANDRE HOPKINS

At 3-4, the Deadbeats are thinking progressively with this move: Hopkins is due for a bye in week nine, and their incumbent running backs (Lamar Miller and CJ Anderson) both have impending bye weeks as well. Each is also banged up, so having three premier backs gives them quality insurance. Losing Hopkins is obviously a blow to the WR corps, but their remaining collection of wideouts (Cameron Meredith, Terrelle Pryor, Allen Hurns, Michael Floyd, Travis Benjamin, and recent waiver claim Davante Adams) has the sort of enticing upside that could replace the under performing Hopkins. Malibu has set themselves up for a second half go of things: If Carson Palmer can do his part, this team will be a playoff contender. If all three backs are healthy and rolling at that point, look for CJ Anderson to be dangled on the trading block at the deadline.

Pawnee's sixth trade of the year makes them party to an even 50% of all completed deals. They were bound to make one of this sort eventually, as their surplus of running back depth was always going to be used to supplement the flex position. In Hopkins they add a bonafide WR1, with the caveat that his context is far from ideal, and his production has been far below expectations. As previously noted, he's only catching just over 50% of his targets, and has only gone over 75 receiving yards once in seven tries. The positive spin is that his skills haven't diminished and he does not appear to be hurt. The negative is that there is no clear indication that the team will figure out a better way to get the ball to him. Regardless, even in this lesser form he is an every week must start- grouped with Big Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall, and Doug Baldwin, this is likely a top three unit over the rest of the season.

At running back, even after shedding Spencer Ware, Terrance West, Tevin Coleman, and Mark Ingram over the past six weeks, they retain Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi as starters, with an upstart Jacquizz Rodgers and rehabilitating Jeremy Langford as competent replacements. Pawnee is conducting a college level course on roster optimization this year, Team Building 101.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

VIII: Week Seven Results

Seven weeks down, six weeks to go. Pawnee is at the "top of the rock" at 6-1, with a one game lead and a significant point advantage on 5-2 Manitoba for the top seed. The rest of the league is at least a game back of that: Six teams sitting a game over .500% at 4-3, another three trying to break the surface at 3-4. HCM City and Savannah will try to make a run of things at 2-5; Oakwood avoids a naked lap around the field, finally breaking into the win column. They're 1-6.


Week 7 Matchups


POWER OUTPUT:
  1. HCM 242: The best way to ensure a win is to score more points than everyone else. Landon Calling!
  2. PAW 225: Pawnee is now 11-2 over the past thirteen weeks of football and has three bonafide RB1s.
  3. OAK 220: Busted into the win column with a combination of DeMarco, LaFell, and a lot of defense.
  4. SPC 214: The defending champs are the only team with a richer RB trio than Pawnee. Here they come.
  5. LTP 209: Toronto' has been over 200 points five times despite lackluster RB play. *Latavius reenters the scene.*
  6. NYF 202: Overhauled roster  doesn't look overpowering, but does boast versatility and upside.
  7. PHX 192: Better output, worse result. Dez returns this week, but is he still Dez Prime, or some lesser version?
  8. SAS 191: Better output, same result. Team has too many decent WRs and not enough RBs.
  9. ISL 190: The Islanders miss a chance to gain ground because they could not replace Ezekiel's bye. He's back.
  10. DVH 188: If Jack Doyle gains volume, Deputy's TE search may be over. Vance McDonald isn't happening bro.
  11. HVM 171: McFlys win when they should win and lose when they should lose. No luck is better than bad luck!
  12. MDB 165: Hoyer's broken arm was a bad start, but they were never gonna win. Great defense! Offense is lacking.
  13. MMC 152: Crew got a win at 153, but lose at 152. If Aaron Rodgers gets on track this is a good team. Otherwise...
  14. SAV 128: Allen Robinson... yikes. But really, this came down to pitiful defense. Truly horrific point totals on D.

TEAM OF THE WEEK:

HCM City Lead Farmers

In an effort to rebrand the HCM Lead Farmers as winners, the team is rolling out a new primary logo:


The new logo is like, four logos in one.
Which is obviously the key to a successful season.

VIII Power Rankings: No Justice, No Peace

It has been a strange start to the season- the 'best team' in the league is 2-5, the 'worst team' in the league is 5-2, and the Pawnee Pride are the best talent evaluators and asset movers. Will things stay the same over the next six weeks? There's no way in hell! But for the prognosticators and purveyors it is good practice to take stock. Here are the mid-season power rankings; We're over the hump!


  • 01 - 12 HCM LeadFarmers 2-5-0 1465.42 1548.68
The Lead Farmers have always been a team that underperformed their peripherals, but never so obscenely; They've scored 195+ in six of their seven outings but have won only two of those matchups, and the only position where they've really underperformed is at tight end, where Delanie Walker and Zach Ertz have both struggled to stay healthy. It's rare that a 2-5 team has almost no holes to fill, but the Lead Farmers haven't done anything wrong here. Things just have not gone right, as the team slots in eleven places worse than their power output.
  • 02 - 3 Hill Valley McFlys 4-3-0 1462.40 1305.08
The McFlys built a team on the strength of four top notch Wide Receivers and a stud running back and have since added Cam Newton to the fold. While the team has had to tinker and toy with the second RB position and the answer at tight end continues to be elusive, the engine continues to run strong. They've played up to expectation, within a game or so of expected variance, and find themselves in playoff position with four of their remaining six opponents under .500%
  • 03 - 4 Saskatoon Sasquatch 4-3-0 1446.44 1319.00
The Sasquatch were the league's top squad through September, but October has been unkind to them: Injuries to several of their top receiving options (Sammy Watkins, Jordan Reed, Donte Moncrief, Eddie Royal) forced them to move Mark Ingram to restock the roster, but bye weeks still loom for the heart of the defense. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are an enviable nucleus, but the team will need contributions from some other players if the squad isn't going to make this another fast start to a mediocre end. They're still in good position, but have to get their early season mojo back fast.
  • 04 - 1 Pawnee Pride 6-1-0 1437.99 1237.99
The Pride are getting showered in accolades- and deservedly so. At 6-1 they are in command of the standings, and have done a great job of following up their excellent 2015 run. Their roster is absolutely stuffed with talent, especially on offense, and their willingness to pull the trigger on trades has kept them rollicking onward: expect more moves, as the team continues to augment. That said, the team's record is something of a mirage, as they've been very fortunate in scheduling, taking advantage of opponents at just the right time. Not their fault that they've taken full advantage of their schedule though.
  • 05 - 5 Deputy Van Halens 4-3-0 1418.75 1362.19
DVH has done pretty well for themselves this year, playing exactly to par; but there was a chance to overachieve: in all three of their losses this year, the team has carried a hole in their lineup, opting twice not to replace CB Bashaud Breeland; Their loss to Hill Valley can be traced directly to the twin voids where CJ Mosley and David Harris should have been. David Johnson has been everything that could be expected of him as a first round pick (and more!) but the Van Halens will need to optimize their roster week to week in the back nine if they are going to make a go of this thing.
  • 06 - 9 Toronto LTP         3-4-0 1413.61 1325.55
Toronto drafted well and sits just a game below .500% mostly due to a lack of depth or an inability to identify needs. Most of the players that they're counting on have performed as billed when capable, as their WR and TE groups have been outstanding and Andrew Luck has been resurgent. Latavius Murray and Rashad Jennings have both struggled to stay healthy, a vulnerability that has been exploited roundly. Each are finding their legs, but have a bye week to contend with. The team needs to find a way to gut out some wins without their best roster in the coming weeks if they're going to be in playoff position down the stretch.
  • 07 - 6 Revis Islanders     4-3-0 1345.19 1349.62
The Islanders have been just about average on the year, hovering around .500% by winning the games they should win, and losing when they were the lesser team. Their only truly contested game came in the opener, when they ousted Malibu in a tight matchup, correlating in their playoff positioning. In the second half of the season they're expecting Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman to be much better than they've been- if they can deliver, the Islanders should hit their stride right on time to make some noise in the playoffs.
  • 08 - 14 Oakwood Drivers 1-6-0 1333.86 1407.12
Oakwood finally got a win at the season's midpoint- it's been along time coming. While not a team that could be mistaken for a powerhouse nor a claim on the horrific luck that the Lead Farmers have suffered, the Drivers are a competent team that was just bad enough to torpedo their year in six short weeks. Adrian Peterson's refusal to help this team over three campaigns, needing any of their WRs to break out and having none of them do so, and Tyler Eifert's high draft price and very late arrival are all reasons Oakwood couldn't make a run of things this year, but they'll be relegated to playing spoiler and playing for a draft pick for the fourth time in four years. 
  • 09 - 7 Phoenix Uprising 4-3-0 1333.33 1443.29
The Uprising aren't quite in unfamiliar waters here- 2009's campaign saw them finish in the league's bottom half. But after six straight years at the top of the standings and power rankings, the drop has been precipitous, and the blame is squarely on them: Two of their top five picks (JJ Watt and Reshad Jones) are out for the season, while a third hasn't played yet and may never see the field (Josh Gordon) and when the team has had an asset in their hands, they've dropped them prematurely (Terrance West and Jay Ajayi) depleting them of optimism. Two incredibly fortunate wins (by 2.36 over OAK and by 2.4 over SAV) are the only reason the team has remained relevant to this point.
  • 10 - 8 New York's Finest 4-3-0 1326.59 1314.55
New York is creeping up the standings and power rankings after a blah 0-2 start to the year, reeling off five quality performances in a row and winning four of them. Adaptability has been the name of the game, as the team's willingness to embrace change has been its strength. Perhaps no player signifies that more than Ty Montgomery, who is expected to gain RB eligibility this week. Devonta Freeman is a world beater- everyone else on this offense is going to be plug and play matchup oriented managerial decisions. If New York makes the right ones, they'll be right in the thick of things once again.
  • 11 - 10 Malibu Deadbeats 3-4-0 1311.02 1461.50
The Deadbeats inaugural campaign has played pretty close to source; After losing a heartbreaker in week one they have won three close games and they've lost three blowouts. If you're gonna lose, lose big and save your best performances for winnable games; I mean, that'd be rational, even if it's not practical. Malibu's resourceful defense is a strength, and the emergence of Terrelle Pryor has been a real difference maker. If Carson Palmer can get his act together, Malibu should enjoy some added stability that will give them a shot to make a playoff run. The Arian Foster Nation is retired. Long live the Nation.  
  • 12 - 11 South Park Cows 3-4-0 1304.87 1454.90
The defending champions have not had an auspicious start to their title defense, but they've battled back after two two game losing streaks, and are close enough to the pack that they still have time to shake off their LBVII hangover. Russell Wilson has been disappointing at the helm, and the team has really pushed all of its chips into a Ladarius Green tight end renaissance; If those two can hit the back half of the season running, the rest of the Cows are highly dangerous weapons. Moo. 
  • 13 - 13 Savannah Petes  2-5-0 1294.17 1397.42
The Petes are who we thought they were- thirteenth in the power rankings, thirteenth in the standings, thirteenth in our hearts. Who thought Mike Wallace and Frank Gore would be the team's premier weapons in 2016? There's hope. Brady and the Gronk have returned and should give the team a chance in every game they play. But with a bye in week nine and slim margin for error, Savannah cannot afford to drop this week's matchup against the 6-1 Pride. If 2016 is gonna be a magical season for the South, it has to start here and now.
  • 14 - 2 Manitoba Moosecrew 5-2-0 1267.43 1234.18
WUT? Manitoba has been really unimpressive through seven games! Like, worst total output in the league, that's why they are listed down here yucky. AND YET! They are 5-2, and need only to split their remaining six games to clinch a playoff spot. If Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson can get on the same page and Odell Beckham can get on a roll the Crew can be really scary down the stretch- with those talents, bet on those things happening. They still need to unearth a second running back by playoff time, but they've afforded themselves the wiggle room to take some chances and find themselves a diamond in the rough without having to pay a premium to acquire one. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good- they've been lucky. Now it is time to get good.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Trade 11: On the Mark

Saskatoon has come plummeting back to earth since dropping 299 on the Lead Farmers, losing to Manitoba and Malibu in lackluster outings. With multiple injuries cropping up at inopportune times, the Sasquatch were actively shopping Mark Ingram and found a solid (if somewhat unspectacular) return for their bellcow, exchanging players with Pawnee.


PAWNEE ACQUIRES:
  • RB Mark Ingram
SASKATOON ACQUIRES:
  • RB Terrance West
  • WR Anquan Boldin
Pawnee continues to build via trade, turning acquired depth into bluechip talent. Mark Ingram was a second round pick, and has been a top 25 scorer with his bye week in the rearview; Pawnee moves Terrance West (a free agent pick up who never found his way into their lineup, despite amassing quality numbers) and Anquan Boldin (a 16th round pick acquired for depth) both of whom should offer a nice floor for Saskatoon. The Sasquatch will go as far as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones can take them- everything else is supplementary. West will be the team's top back by default, while the team hopes Ryan Mathews can turn his season around and give them a proper one-two punch; There's not a lot of depth behind them, as scatback retread Bobby Rainey rounds out their options.

Long term, Saskatoon might have been better served by acquiring West with Jacquizz Rodgers or Jay Ajayi in this package instead of Boldin, but with Sammy Watkins, Jordan Reed, Donte Moncrief, and Eddie Royal all shelved, (and Will Fuller questionable coming off an inactive week) they needed the WR depth now and couldn't afford to wait for a better offer that may have never come. Pawnee was all too happy to oblige.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Trade 9 & 10: The New New York's Finest

New York's Finest were LBVI Champions in 2014, and had the best regular season record ever in 2015, going 12-1. This year, the season got off to a bumpy start (with back to back losses) before the team seemed to right the ship, winning three of four in highly competent fashion to even their record. However, the team's depth was depleted, and injuries were taking a toll: Cam Newton missed a game with a concussion, while Carlos Hyde is dealing with a shoulder injury- and both would be lost to impending byes. Rather than sit idle, New York took a bold step to re-energize their roster with burgeoning young talent.



HILL VALLEY ACQUIRES:
  • QB Cam Newton
PHOENIX ACQUIRES:
  • RB Carlos Hyde
NEW YORK ACQUIRES:
  • QB Jamies Winston
  • RB TJ Yeldon
  • WR Ty Montgomery
  • WR Kendall Wright
  • WR Adam Humphries
Cam returns to Hill Valley, where he elevated his game in 2015; Carlos Hyde will have two weeks off to recuperate before making his presumptive Uprising debut in Week Nine. Both are proven players with durability concerns underlining their sky high upside. 

New York will roll with sophomore QB Duo Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. Each is still ascending, and both may see playing time in upcoming weeks; With careful matchup play, New York could really benefit from a two headed monster- and if one player takes the reins, so be it. TJ Yeldon has shown himself to be a dynamic young back with a fully developed skillset- he can run and catch. He hasn't put it all together yet, but he should be given ample opportunities without being asked to do too much- Devonta Freeman will carry the load. The team gets three breakout candidates at WR- swiss army knife Ty Montgomery and gizmo gadget Kendall Wright are both looking to build off breakout games; New York's betting they're for real, and bought in at the ground floor. Adam Humphries has shown himself to be a shifty possession receiver that should see plenty of targets underneath, a good safe flex option the rest of the way. With a totally revamped roster, the Finest are a wildcard going forward, completely unpredictable. We'll see how that works out for them!