This year's Larkspur Bowl features two teams that last saw each other in the season's opener (Hill Valley won soundly 194.42-154.36) and then took different routes to the championship, but both end up looking championship caliber- and completely different than they did initially: Of their fifteen starters in that game, Phoenix will have five going tomorrow, while Hill Valley will have two- one of whom, Mike Wallace, spent half the season with last year's champions, the California Swag.
Listed is a rough approximation of positional edge, along with each player's projected score, as well as their season total, and my comments on each player's journey and performance.
QB: Even
Philip Rivers 15.84 (237.32)
Nick Foles 15.91 (204.72)
Neither of these players started the year as their team's starter, Rivers coming over from Flint (nee Teamville) to replace RGIII, who was sent to New York. He's been a solid presence since, rarely putting up game changing numbers, but always giving the Uprising a chance to win the game. Foles was a necessary addition for the McFlys after All-World starter Aaron Rodgers went down; Coming off a 7 TD game with Silver City, he was affordably purchased, and while never reaching the same lofty heights, he was a huge boon to Hll Valley in the second half of the season. Rivers has a choice matchup, while Foles faces stiffer competition in Week 16.
RB: Phoenix
Matt Forte 16.51 (252.2)
Eddie Lacy 14.90 (182.4)
Chris Johnson 13.97 (183.3)
Shane Vereen 10.99 (92.5)
Only Matt Forte started the year with his current team, and he has been undeniably magnificent. Eddie Lacy, bought cheap from Chicago, has been a gangbuster compliment since joining Phoenix, and swings the needle comfortably in favor of the Orange squad; Chris Johnson and Shave Vereen were shrewd late season gets, from New York and Flint respectively. But both have been contingent upon the passing game to maximize output. None of these four players have favorable matchups, with Vereen having the worst week 16 draw.
WR: Phoenix
Calvin Johnson 18.47 (266.9)
AJ Green 17.74 (229.8)
Josh Gordon 17.12 (257.3)
Vincent Jackson 11.85 (196.1)
The top two vertical weapons in the game will be launched in the finale, with Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon each needing to put up a marquee game to bring home the title. CJ has a game in hand on Gordon, who came over from California and legitimized his status as a world beater- and he's picked up his torrid statistical pace as the season has progressed. The sidekicks are no pushovers either: AJ Green came over from New York midseason, and continued his presence as one of the league's top WRs, currently he is ranked seventh overall; Vincent Jackson, who came over in the same deal as Gordon, is ranked 14th. CJ has the toughest matchup, but all four of these guys are regarded as matchup proof.
TE: Even
Dennis Pitta 9.34 (17.2)
Delanie Walker 10.84 (114.7)
Both of these teams are without their starting Tight End; Phoenix struck gold in selecting Cameron in the 11th round; The 18th TE off the board is third overall in points for the position. But, felled by a concussion, the Uprising turn to Pitta, in his third game back from a serious preseason injury. His debut roared like a lion, his follow up meek like a mouse. The McFlys traded for Rob Gronkowski after he returned from his own serious injury, and seemed to draw aces on the move- until he suffered another season ending injury, leaving them with backup plan Delanie Walker; He's put up very nice scores in three of the last six, but next to nothing and literally nothing in the other three. It's a coin flip, with Walker drawing the better matchup.
FX: Even
Keenan Allen 13.72 (173.2)
Mike Wallace 12.36 (153)
Keenan Allen has been a revelation off the waiver wire; Phoenix relies upon his connection with Phil Rivers as a killer red zone threat and he's scored two in each of the past two games, and his been productive every week since his ascension in week four. Mike Wallace was sent away for Josh Gordon and Vincent Wallace, before rejoining them in the Gronkowski deal. How does that happen? Wallace has been boom/bust this year, but in the money a lot lately: Three of the past four. He will need to make it four out of five and outscore Allen to even the playing field. Both players have great matchups to exploit.
K: Hill Valley
Blair Walsh 7.59 (128.5)
Phil Dawson 8.58 (132.5)
Two solid kickers- Dawson gets a prime draw, but at a position explicitly defined by game flow, there's no definitive edge week to week.
DL: Phoenix
JJ Watt 16.15 (166.5)
Muhammad Wilkerson 9.06 (122.3)
JJ Watt was the first IDP off the board, coming off an unparalleled 2012 that eviscerated all comers, scoring so prodigiously for the swag that he was named league MVP. Since being drafted in the third round by Phoenix, Watt has been unquestionably elite- he is the best player at the position. But he has been unable to replicate last year's utter dominance. Last year he averaged an unfathomable 17.49 pts per game, this year 11.89. Questions about his attrition go unasked, because he is a terrifying juggernaut of a human being, but his past three games have shown dwindling production. He's still the clear favorite over Wilkerson, an extremely talented mortal- he's third at the position, a full forty four points behind Watt on the year. His matchup is better, as Watt faces the worst matchup possible.
LB: Hill Valley
Daryl Smith 16.15 (192.05)
Bobby Wagner 12.17 (125.95)
Derrick Johnson 9.23 (166.75)
Lavonte David 13.10 (238.35)
Nick Roach 11.84 (145.5)
DeAndre Levy 9.11 (192.3)
Lavonte David is the difference in this matchup. Along with Toronto's Karlos Dansby, he has been the class of the LFL on defense, doing everything for his team. Were Sean Lee playing, this might be a closer call, but with six top shelf LBs going, David is clearly the king of kings. If any fail to score ten points it will be a blow to their team's chances, likewise, if one of them can force a turnover or get to the quarterback or pick off a pass, it will be game changing. None of the six players have optimal matchups, but any could be the lightning strike that proves victorious.
CB: Hill Valley
Aqib Talib 10.77 (95.6)
Stephon Gilmore 9.81 (60.5)
Tracy Porter 10.79 (134.7)
Lardarius Webb 9.12 (132.83)
Phoenix has struggled at CB all year, especially since they lost Joe Haden to California. The McFlys have had great production from theirs, though Tracy Porter has brought in diminishing returns lately. Stephon Gilmore has picks in back to back games after starting the season injured; Lardarius Webb has battled injuries all year, but played through them and remained an upper tier option weekly. The McFly CBs have poorer matchups in week 16, but everybody is spinning a bullet in the chamber in the final week.
S: Hill Valley
Mark Barron 8.71 (126.65)
Antrel Rolle 10.22 (165.25)
The Uprising switched to Mark Barron in the season's final third, letting Eric Berry go to bottom feeder Pawnee, where he has been the best Safety in the game. In fact, Berry is the only safety who has been better that McFly S Antrel Rolle over the course of the season. Rolle has a very good matchup this week, while Barron sees a tough opponent. In roulette game of defensive backs, perhaps patience is an asset after all.
BN;
Ryan Mathews 12.37 (156.5)
Greg Jennings 10.88 (131.8)
Michael Crabtree 10.28 (26.8)
Tim Wright 6.85 (97.6)
Jordan Cameron (OUT) (166.8)
Sean Lee (OUT) (152.2)
Dennis Johnson 12.47 (26.13)
Andre Caldwell 10.64 (44.33)
Donald Brown 8.12 (101.6)
Trent Richardson 6.73 (105.9)
Byron Maxwell 5.89 (80.3)
Rob Gronkowski (OUT) (106.7)
Aaron Rodgers (OUT) (135.72)
Of this crew, the third running backs have a chance of seeing action, should the starters suffer a late injury. Phoenix dealt Mathews to Chicago in the Lacy deal, but reacquired him late in the season, where he's shown to be a very viable depth option. Mathews was on Phoenix's two Larkspur Bowl championship teams, in 2010 and 2011. Dennis Johnson is an opportunity add by Hill Valley, and could be a dice roll pick for the #2 seed. The Uprising WR depth is nice- Jennings and Crabtree would definitely be, at the very least, flex options for many teams at this stage of the game. Tim Wright is up and down, with versatile position eligibility, but a bad matchup. Andre Caldwell is a flavor of the week pickup, while Donald Brown and Trent Richardson cut each other's value. Byron Maxwell is perhaps the most intriguing bench option, if the McFlys choose to start him. All four injured players are retained only for sentimental value, as cornerstones that wore down over the season.
How both team's active players scored this season:
OFFENSIVELY:
DEFENSIVELY:
