In football, context is dictated by the offense; therefore, prognostication for kickers and defensive players is a limp exercise that I would prefer to avoid, especially at such a premature juncture. Once the season gets going, we can attempt to examine the nuances of IDPs and kickers. Until then, the focus is on offense.
Positional depth is essential in the LFL. Bye weeks and injuries will rattle any lineup, but the consummate team manager is endlessly trying to optimize their matchups with some degree of certainty. Lets take a look at the teams with relative positional strength.
Quarterback- The QB is typically the highest scoring player on a week-to-week basis. Even middle of the pack QBs will usually approach 200 points on a season, but a bad performance by a field general can torpedo an entire team's effort. The past four LFL champions have rolled out Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning (twice.) Probably not a coincidence.
Strong: Phoenix doubled down on QBs, but already traded Matt Stafford to Teamville, leaving Silver City as proverbial king of Quarterback Mountain. Peyton Manning brings elite stability even into his golden years, while SNICKERS SLEEPER! Mike Vick is a boom/bust candidate with huge upside. If this seems like deja vu, that's because this squad had a similar QB monopoly in 2012, clinging to Peyton and Cam Newton. If Vick returns to 2010 form, expect them to learn from last year's mistake and cash in one of their trump cards for a positional upgrade down the road.
Weak: Chicago rolled the dice on waiting for a QB, and ended up the last team to fill its needs behind center when they selected Josh Freeman in the 12th round. It's a familiar strategy for the team, who waited until the 17th (!!) round to pick Alex Smith in 2012, before engineering a midseason blockbuster for Aaron Rodgers that turned up bust. Freeman has the potential to be an efficient and effective gunslinger, but has yet to put it all together. Behind him is Jay Cutler, who is steadfastly average. California, Hill Valley, New York, and Atlanta all look to debut without a backup QB this season- which is an excellent strategy, right up until Bernard Pollard destroys their season.
Runningback- There are two RB slots to fill every week, and as the season goes on, they become harder and harder to fill with any semblance of certitude. With low attrition and weekly game plan variance, truly dependable workhorses have become a rare breed. Every year sees a few afterthoughts come out of the woodwork and turn into vital cogs on playoff teams, topically referred to as the 'Alfred Morris Effect.' With bye weeks inevitable, two RBs are just not enough to lean on.
Strong: Toronto looks to have a well-oiled machine in their quartet of primary runners. Muscle Hamster showed he was elite last year, and Reggie Bush has shown he is capable of amassing a full workload, albeit in an unconventional way. Run DMC's litany of concerns is ceaseless, with questionable health and motivation- but the talent is there, and as an auxiliary his upside is boundless. Daryl Richardson will have to show he belongs at the outset, but he has the opportunity, and that is what is most vital- having a chance. Pawnee has an intriguing batch of RBs, as Alfred Morris is battle tested, David Wilson has dynamite potential in the one slot, Ahmad Bradshaw has a history of battling through injuries and grinding out production, and DeAngelo Williams might end up a contributor in his career's twilight, especially as lead horse out of the gate.
Weak: Oakwood took Arian Foster in the first round, and though his prognosis has cleared up, he is not out of the woods yet. Even if he rounds into form, the rest of the backfield is a mess: Danny Woodhead is a third down back, Ronnie Hillman is the median in a muddled three dog race that is unlikely to declare a clear winner, and Mikel Leshoure is not even assured a roster spot. They drafted Michael Turner, who has not been signed, and could fade off into retirement. It's a mess. New York has an unsettled situation behind Chris Johnson, who himself bought respite from critical whispers after turning in a good 2012. Le'von Bell's foot injury left the Finest scrambling, grabbing possible replacement Johnathan Dwyer to mix in with russian roulette back Pierre Thomas, and sleeper handcuff Bernard Pierce. There's a chance the answers are already on the roster, but there's about an equal chance they are left with little to no value. Chicago took the plunge on two rookies, Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball. Both have tremendous upside, but neither has truly defined their role in pass heavy offenses. Behind them, the Bears have only Shonn Greene, post hype as a workhorse, most likely to gain most of his value as goal line vulture. It's an unenviable gambit.
Wide Receiver- The WR position should get a slight boon in wire depth, with the third slot flexing with a second TE setup. There are perhaps fifteen bonafide, can't miss, premier targets out there, and then another fifteen or twenty solid options. After that, WRs are hit or miss week to week, with minimal role diversification- rarely does a wideout go from spare part to integral force mid season.
Strong: Phoenix and Toronto both have five of the top fifty WRs, taking a round fifth of the LFL's talent. Phoenix boasts established talents Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Mike Williams, and Kenny Britt, along with burgeoning second year man Michael Floyd. Toronto has a dependable possession WR in Antonio Brown, a home run threat in DeSean Jackson, and Anquan Boldin, who can be both things. Behind their big three, they have young sleepers Tavon Austin and Rueben Randle. Orgrimmar has a nice bit of depth banking on the Packer offense: Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb headlining, with freshly un-brainwashed Greg Jennings and dark horse Cecil Shorts rounding out the bunch.
Weak: Chicago has an interesting scenario brewing, having invested in a high risk, high reward portfolio; Top WRs Brandon Marshall and Wes Welker are both cream of the crop, though Welker's opportunities are likely to fall precipitously. Percy Harvin could be belle of the ball, but his preseason injury leaves him unable to dance. If the Bears can put themselves in playoff position, and he comes back roaring, he will turn questionable depth into elite strength- Flipside, he misses the entire season. Likewise, Santonio Holmes is recovering from injury- he could be a solid rotational piece if he can stay on the field, but there are no assurances. The lack of a definitive third WR is muted by their veritable strength at TE. Bristol lost WR3 Danario Alexander in the preseason, and has shored up the position with three upside plays in Woods, Wright, and McCluster- they need at least one to pan out. Oakwood has six WRs on the roster, but zero sure things: Is Eric Decker's role in the offense downgraded significantly? Can Sidney Rice or Darrius Heyward-Bey stay healthy? Do Andre Roberts, Jacoby Jones, or Donnie Avery have distinctly productive roles? Likewise, Silver City has a bunch of WRs on the roster, but with both of their Steves looking at dwindling targets, and three other guys that have yet to prove to be anything remarkable, they're gambling on the flanks.
Tight End- In past years, the LFL limited teams to a single TE. The top eight or ten teams would grab an upper tier guy, leaving the other teams to mix and match amongst competent role players. This year's flex should take advantage of that added depth, and make TE a more versatile position, warranting more definitive investment.
Strong: Chicago finally breaks into the strong column, the unquestioned premier at the position. Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez are the top two (healthy, non-incarcerated) tight ends in the game today, and they're both lining up for the same team. With the increased market for tight ends, and the team's tradition of brokering big trades, look for them to exploit their advantage here as they look to address the squad's shortcomings. New York has a nice duo in Vernon Davis and Jared Cook, and California could be right up at the top as well, depending on when Rob Gronkowski returns, and how Fred Davis returns.
Weak: Toronto took rookie TE Tyler Eifert with conviction, although his role in the offense is unproven. Oakwood grabbed Scott Chandler, who has limited upside. Levee took Brandon Myers, who is entering a new offense, after initially going in on Dennis Pitta, who had already undergone hip surgery. Atlanta curiously made Kyle Rudolph the sixth TE off the board. It's a weird position, where any of these picks might be vindicated, and the wire retains value regardless.
